Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 192037
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS NORTH
IN THE PAN HANDLE AREA...MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR
SOUTH AS SALMON TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY...LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH. COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THAT AREA IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLOWER TREND WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INCREASING THE
AMPLITUDE AND SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON TUESDAY. AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN SUN VALLEY AND CHALLIS COULD RANGE FROM .25 TO .50 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET ELEVATION INITIALLY...THEN
LOWER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A HALF FOOT OF SNOW ON THE UPPER
SLOPES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SNOWPACK AND RAPID RISE ON SMALL
STREAMS. AREAS TO WATCH WILL BE VALLEY CREEK AND THE BEAVER CREEK
WILDFIRE FIRE SCAR NEAR HAILEY. RAIN FALL FURTHER EAST TOWARDS
REXBURG COULD BE LESS...WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE FORECAST A STEP AT A
TIME. RS

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AN EXITING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO ALIGNMENT
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY PICK UP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY TO MODERATE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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