Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 211956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS PACNW PER WV
SAT IMAGERY. LEADING SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH EAST IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SEATTLE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEEPENING LOW IN PACNW SO EXPECT MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO POOL OVER EAST IDAHO WITH CONVECTIVE THREAT
CONTINUING PAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE POPS
UPWARD PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA EACH PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAIN SHORTWAVE CARVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH LIFTS
INTO GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STILL HINTING AT SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING INTO REGION FROM CANADIAN DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH POPS CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...WV/IR IMAGERY TODAY SHOWING MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RE-DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING PICKS UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF UPPER JET SPEED
MAX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP STABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THUS KEEPING MORNING THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS. FORECAST
LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO WOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING JUST AFTER NOON FRIDAY. LOW VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...BUT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS HINTING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY SHOW UP AT KIDA.  HINSBERGER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT COMPARATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS THAN TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD GREATLY
REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING-IGNITED FIRES...BUT ALSO MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN BURN SCARS. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...BUT DRIVE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ON TUESDAY USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.
HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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