Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS65 KPIH 271928
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
128 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...A VIGOROUS SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH STANLEY AREA NEAR 28/15Z
AND CONTINUE ON TO THE ARCO DESERT BY 28/18Z. THERE IS SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN
CUSTER COUNTY AND STANLEY AREA OWING TO FORCING AND STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN.
ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SATURDAY. THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OF -20
C/12HR IS RESPECTABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM WEATHER WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING THIS YEAR. ALONG WITH THIS...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CAME
UP WITH 40KTS OF WIND AT POCATELLO FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE
NAM MODEL...THIS LOOKS LIKE RATHER ISOLATED WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH
AND MODELS OTHER THAN THE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS ALREADY IN EFFECT..BUT JUST THE SAME WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
SIGNS OF STRONGER AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...40 MPH SUSTAINED
AND/OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH GUSTS THAT WOULD WARRANT A HIGH WIND
WARNING. BY SATURDAY EVENING...SHOWERS END AND WINDS DECREASE
SHARPLY. OTHER THAN A LITTLE BREEZE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOL TO BE
PRETTY NICE DAYS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES
OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BRIEF INTERLUDE IS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY AS A FLAT SHALLOW RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE LEADING WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY NUDGED THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL UPWARDS DURING THOSE PERIODS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT...OTHERWISE A BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PAC TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT AT TERMINALS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MDT SATURDAY IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MDT SATURDAY IDZ022.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.