Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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899
FXUS65 KPIH 112117
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
OVER THE AREA IS GRADUALLY CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN.
LOOK FOR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TONIGHT BRINGING JUST A TRACE OF SNOW OVER THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR FOG
PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. STILL LOOK FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...
PARTICULARLY BEAR LAKE AND ALONG I-15 AND I-84 NEAR THE UTAH
BORDER. A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVING IT EAST OF OUR AREA.
LOOK FOR MODERATE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
TRACE TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN. THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
WILL START OUT WITH SNOW EARLY SUNDAY AND TURN TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR THE SAWTOOTHS AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES PARTICULARLY GALENA SUMMIT...PINE CREEK PASS AND
JACKSON PASS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WEATHER STORY HAVE
BEEN ISSUED TO SHOW IMPACTED AREAS. EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF HIGHLAND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT MID/UPPER SLOPES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SNAKE
PLAIN. THIS MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT PASS LEVEL AS
WELL AS SOME CROSSWINDS FOR THOSE TRAVELING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL MEAN
AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY TUE. WE ALSO ANTICIPATE WARMING
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY AT MID AND UPPER SLOPES.VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY RESIDE BENEATH SHARP INVERSIONS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK. THUS LOWERED TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WE MAY ALSO SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE AND WED.
FOR THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM...GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED A BIT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF PEAK IMPACTS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS IN THE THU-FRI TIMEFRAME IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH FUTURE
REFINEMENTS IN THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AD/WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN A VFR MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT PIH AND IDA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 02-15Z HOWEVER PROBABILITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
AREAS OF MIST AND/OR HAZE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
IMPACTFUL OBSCURATION TO VIS. AD/WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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