Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 200051
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
151 PM SST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN INFAMOUS MONSOONAL TROUGH FROM
YESTERDAY WILL ENHANCE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL USHER FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE-WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AND ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WILL REINFORCE THE POSITION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE FCST ZONES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS A NORTH-
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH WHICH WILL EASE THE
ATTENTION OF RAINFALL OVER THE FCST ZONES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION MATERIALIZES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANUA DURING MONDAY. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONAL TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE LOCAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS SURFS AND SWELLS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK.
HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI









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