Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 030057 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
157 PM SST SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED HEADLINES ON THE PPG ADVISORIES

.SHORT TERM...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL TRANSITION
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE DRIVING WEATHER MECHANISM FOR THE REGION IS THE EXISTING STRONG
TRADE-WIND REGIME TRIGGERED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. A
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAMOA WILL DISSIPATE DURING MONDAY
HOWEVER ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL SWEEP A 1012MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON THUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED WIND SPEED UP
TO 30 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.
THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 KT STARTING
MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
WET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO LINGER OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS AND MINIMAL SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS COMBINED WITH A
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS AND SURFS UP
TO 16 FT UNTIL THURSDAY. ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF WARNING AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS UNTIL THURSDAY.
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

BAQUI





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