Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 260645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
405 PM ChST Tue Jul 26 2016

.Synopsis...Gentle east winds and isolated showers prevail over
the forecast area.


.Discussion...An upper level low north of Saipan caused a few
thunderstorms early this morning. The thunderstorms have since
petered out but remain a possibility for another day as the
atmosphere gradually stabilizes. Satellite imagery shows a canopy
of high level cirrus clouds over the islands. Otherwise, isolated
showers are visible on radar.


Buoys are reporting around 2 to 4 feet combined seas throughout
the day and indications of a small north swell. Rip current risk
remains low this week.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Visible satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms generally
between 7N and 11N from east of Chuuk to the Marshall Islands. A
surface trough across the Marshall Islands and an upper-level low
Northeast of Majuro generated weather over the Marshalls today...but
the trough is pushing west and the upper low is shifting northeast.
The surface trough will shift west bringing showery weather to
Pohnpei on Wednesday and Thursday...and Chuuk on Thursday. GFS model
shows a convergence zone developing between 3N and 8N near Kosrae
and Majuro shifting northwest by the weekend.


.Western Micronesia...
Reasoning for the Chuuk forecast can be found in the Eastern
Micronesia discussion above.

Relatively wet weather will continue the next few days at Yap and
Koror. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak disturbance
southeast of Yap and Koror will shift over Yap tonight and Koror
Wednesday. This disturbance is poorly organized now...but GFS model
shows some development the next few days as it passes over Koror.
The disturbance will head into the Philippine Sea in the next couple
days with drier weather building in from the east by the weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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