Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 312204
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
804 AM CHST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS...A FEW OF WHICH
ARE NEAR THE POINT OF BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5
TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE ALMOST LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISLAND CONVECTION...ONLY
REACHING 15 KNOTS AT 300 MB ON THE SOUNDING LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE DIRECTION OF SOUTHEAST IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE. NEVERTHELESS...
LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND RATHER AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE
INDICATING NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH SUPPORTS THIS.
MARIANAS WILL DRY OUT A BIT STARTING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE LIGHT WINDS AND JUST MODERATE SEAS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
HURRICANE KILO IS JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE DATE LINE...IN WHICH CASE IT WOULD BE CHRISTENED TYPHOON
KILO. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NEARLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 23N.
KILO IS CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR TYPHOON THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN PACIFIC. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL THE
MAJOR ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA...HOWEVER IT MAY POSE SOME THREAT TO
SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF JAPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS THE FOCUS OVER MICRONESIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE
ATOLL AROUND NOON TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. KOSRAE WILL
SEE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION REFORMING
JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER KOSRAE LATER
TODAY...BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT OVER POHNPEI. BOTH LOCATIONS
WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PALAU THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE NOW WEST OF YAP AND NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND.
KOROR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY TONIGHT AS WELL. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER BOTH
YAP AND KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR CHUUK...FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THERE THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM POHNPEI. CONTINUED FORECAST FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE



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