Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
745 AM ChST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
A mostly cloudy sky prevailed this morning over the Marianas with
isolated showers. Combined seas generally range 5 to 7 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Once again, not much change. The dry season pattern continues for
most of the upcoming week. The NAVGEM now hints at some
showers/thunderstorms around Wednesday, while the GFS has backed
off a little, so for the time being will leave the forecast as is.

&&

.Marine...
East to northeast swell will peak into tonight with 9 foot surf
on east facing reefs. A gradual decrease is then expected
beginning tomorrow. Seas will generally be in the 4 to 6 or 5 to 7
foot range during most of the week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough runs through the Marshall Islands. Winds are
undergoing low-level speed convergence both behind and ahead of
the trough. The area behind was impacting Majuro early this
morning. Forecast was worded with that in mind, then suddenly the
area of convection shifted southward, which could require an
update for improving weather. The area of convergence ahead of the
trough is creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
just northwest of Kosrae and just east of Pohnpei. Meanwhile, the
area moving toward Pohnpei has really developed, so that may
require an update for worsening weather. What is definitely
expected is that winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The convergence currently affecting Eastern Micronesia will reach
Chuuk around Tuesday bringing an end to the fair weather they are
currently enjoying. A bit of speed convergence is also found near
Yap. This is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the far southern coastal waters. They are
expected not to move any closer, this may also have to be watched
though. Winds at Yap may occasionally get close to small craft
advisory criteria, however otherwise Western Micronesia will also
fall well short.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/Stanko



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