Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 042152
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
752 AM CHST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.
THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOWS THE WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOVE 16 THOUSAND FEET THEN TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE 28 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST LOOK PRETTY DRY. ANOTHER TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE COULD COME THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
RAINFALL SHOULD BE POSITIVELY MINIMAL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EDGE
UPWARD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THIS WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH BACK
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY COULD THEN DIMINISH
FURTHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THIS SATURDAY. FIRE CREWS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SITUATION...AS IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND TO CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ARISE IN A HURRY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SLIGHTLY DRIER MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAIR WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU FRIDAY...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU
TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY PULLING
WEST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CONVERGENCE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME
SHOULD RETURN TO THE CAPITAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SAME TRADE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS VISIBLE ON THE LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...
EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 175W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 3N AND 8N FROM 180 EASTWARD TO BEYOND 155W.
AS THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDES TOWARD THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MAJURO. IT WILL ALSO
REACH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROLONG UNSETTLED
WEATHER THERE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN
MICRONESIA ABOVE.

GENTLE TRADE WINDS AND DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY
NEAR KOROR THRU TONIGHT AND YAP UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TOWARD BOTH
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...IT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN



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