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000
FXUS65 KPSR 192239 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOONS
ARE EXPECTED. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE DESERTS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 100 TO
103 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALMOST AN IDENTICAL REGIME AS YESTERDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ACROSS THE DESERTS
HOWEVER...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR AS OF 21Z.

ONE MORE DAY OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR THE REGION AND NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE
TUESDAY...YET IT WILL STILL MANAGE TO HEAT THE BL ABOUT 1C EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 100S AT ALL DESERT LOCATIONS
LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET LATER THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S...THIS ISNT TOO UNHEARD OF FOR MID/LATE MAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF AZ. GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH LINGERING LIGHTER WESTERLY CONTINUING
THROUGH 08Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
AFTERNOON WINDS MONDAY EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z
WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...LIGHTER NORTH
WIND OVER THE IMPERIAL VALLEY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND BE DISPLACED BY A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BECOME GOOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...REMAINING POOR ELSEWHERE. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ