Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 302353
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



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