Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 260722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM FRIDAY...

CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ATTENDANT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS SIMILAR ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...IN THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...ESP ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFT/EVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DECREASES SAT NIGHT...ESP WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ALOFT MAY LEAD
TO ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION SAT NIGHT...IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES OR CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA TRACKING INTO THE REGION VIA SW FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 06-12Z SUN...APPARENTLY AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/WIND
FIELDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SHOWING OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY AT 12Z SUN TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z MON.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...COUPLED
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE S...APPEARS TO SUPPORT A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. THEN AFTER A BREAK IN THE
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE REMAINING PRECIP
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT QPF VALUES ARE PROGGED AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER...WITH THE SYNOP PATTERN NOW FEATURING FLOW THAT`S
MORE WESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...AND DRIER...THANKS TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.

REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 90M FROM THEIR PEAK AROUND 1375M JUST
BEFORE FROPA SUNDAY EVENING...TO AROUND 1285M BY EARLY THURSDAY...A
SOMEWHAT GRADUAL PROCESS AS A 1055MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY MONDAY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS GRADUALLY LOWER EACH
DAY...FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 BY MID-WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...FALLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER 30S) BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE REGION. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT


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