Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 081732
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
932 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LESS WINDY AND BUT CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS. SLOW
COOLING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...ISOLATED 55 MPH...THROUGH
AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS.

GUSTY SANTA ANA...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
DUE TO A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND GUST SO FAR WAS
68 MPH AT SILL HILL IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AT 410 PM SUNDAY. A
LAXPNSSGX WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AND IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE
WITH HIGHEST WIND GUSTS SO FAR. THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS AND FOOTHILLS. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
WARM WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH SLOW COOLING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND 5 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE DESERTS. VISTA AND ESCONDIDO MAY BREAK OR TIE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL SITES COULD BREAK OR TIE RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW. A WEATHER STORY IS ON OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS...RECORDS AND DATES. HIGHS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES TO OUR
EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN SOME AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MIXING FROM THE OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAS BEEN GIVING PEOPLE SINUS TROUBLE...WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN.

THE 08/1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING UP FROM
THE SW AND GENERATING PRECIP OVER SW CA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE 08/0000 UTC ECMWF IS SHOWING A DRY RIDGE OVER US AT
THE SAME TIME. THE SOLUTIONS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID NEXT
WEEK...AND ENDING OUR DRY SPELL. DEPENDING ON THE 12 UTC RUN OF
THE ECMWF...A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
081630...STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS FROM 40-60 MPH...STRONG UP/DOWN
DRAFTS AND ISOLATED ROTORS. CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY EAST-NORTH EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AND
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN THROUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE PRESENT
AND RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOONS...FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS
     NEAR BANNING.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE


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