Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 290527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
926 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPANDING ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
STRIP...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 AM
SATURDAY. DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 5-7 AM.

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER GETS A FOOTHOLD. MUCH COOLER
SATURDAY UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
CONTINUED COOL THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE MARINE AIR REACHES FARTHER
INLAND ALONG WITH A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. YET MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND A COASTAL
EDDY SHOULD HELP TO DISRUPT THE DENSE FOG AFTER 12Z.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE VALLEYS. MARINE STRATUS DECKS ARE EXPECTED
TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL AND FOOTHILL AREAS.

A PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY TO THE REGION ALTHOUGH MARINE LATER STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS ON A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET.
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PROJECTIONS SHOW THAT THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IN TERMS OF THE WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT...SO WE STILL WANT TO SEE A
LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE WE RAMP UP POPS AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR NOW WE DID MAKE SOME
MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS ON THE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS WELL WITH THE ECM PREFERRING A SLOWER
SOLUTION VS THE GFS AND NAM. REGARDLESS...IT NOW APPEARS SOMETIME
BETWEEN LATE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MOST OF OUR
CWA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
290500Z...DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COASTLINE THIS
EVENING WITH AREAS OF VIS 1/4SM.

KSAN...VIS FROM 1/4-1SM THROUGH 12Z WITH CIGS VV002. FM 12-17Z...VIS
IMPROVING TO 2-4SM AND CIGS 002-004 AS COASTAL EDDY STRENGTHENS. AFT
17Z...P6SM SCT005-008.

KCRQ...P6SM SKC THROUGH 08Z. BTWN 08-12Z...VIS DECREASING TO 1-3SM
BR WITH OCNL VIS 1/4-1/2SM FG AND SCT002-004 BECOMING BKN002-004. FM
12-16Z...VIS IMPROVING TO 2-4SM BR WITH BKN002-004 BECOMING
SCT002-004. AFT 16Z...P6SM SCT004-007.

KSNA...P6SM SKC THROUGH 10Z. BTWN 10-14Z...VIS DECREASING TO 1-3SM
BR WITH OCNL BLO 1/2SM FG AND SCT002-004 BECOMING BKN002-004. FM
14-16Z...VIS IMPROVING TO 2-4SM BR BKN002-004 BECOMING SCT002-004.
AFT 16Z...P6SM SCT004-007.

KONT KPSP AND KTRM...P6SM SCT250 THROUGH 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS. VISIBILITY IMPROVING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A COASTAL EDDY DEEPENS THE
MARINE LAYER. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...ABOVE NORMAL SURF OF 3-6 FEET ALONG WESTERLY-FACING BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHER SETS TO 7 FEET IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE SWELL AND SURF WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE





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