Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 260832
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH TRADE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION...SYSTEM
IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...LATEST GFS AND
WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PR MAY AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS MAY OBSERVE PASSING -SHRA/VCSH THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM 26/13Z TO AROUND 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  10
STT  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





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