Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 060049
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. OTHERWISE NOT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VISIBILITIES OF P6SM. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
AFTER 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  91  79  89 /  40  40  10  30
STT  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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