Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 281114
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
414 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime highs will remain well above normal through Friday with
little relief overnight. Cooler this weekend. Isolated
thunderstorms possible over the Sierra crest today into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although we`re still expecting a few more very hot days, there are
subtle signs that highs may nudge downward a degree or two today
and Friday. Although the marine layer along the coast remains
around 1000 ft deep, the onshore gradient has been slightly stronger
overnight compared to the previous night. Wind speeds at Travis
AFB have also measured slightly higher than 24 hours ago. The 24
hour change in temperatures shows several sites, influenced by
the delta breeze, are measuring a few to several degrees cooler.
Have made very minor downward adjustments for today`s and Friday`s
high temperature forecast to reflect a weak delta breeze
influence. However, our entire forecast area will still generally
be 7-12 degrees warmer than normal on both days. Thus, residents
should continue to follow heat safety tips in order to avoid heat
illness/death.

Monsoonal moisture will be advecting northward today into the
Sierra region. We currently have a slight chance of thunderstorms
in our CWA, but it is limited to near and east of the Sierra
Crest and south of the Lake Tahoe region. The latest HRRR is
showing some storms popping up in that region this afternoon
starting around 1 pm.

Friday the moisture spreads farther north but mostly stays on the
eastern side of the crest. However, we could locally see some
isolated thunderstorms in the Lassen Park area. Saturday the flow
pattern should keep thunderstorm potential east and south of our
forecast area, but if any development occurs in our CWA it will
be limited to near Lassen Park and/or near the Sierra Crest just
north of Yosemite Park.

By Friday night, the delta breeze is expected to strengthen and
allow for more cooling over the weekend. The Northern Sacramento
Valley region which includes Redding and Red Bluff will still be
in the 100s, but the rest of the valley will lower into the 90s.

JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Weak upper troughing dominates along the West Coast through the
extended forecast period. This will help to bring temperatures
closer to seasonal normal with mainly 90s in the Central Valley,
except around 100 in the Northern Sacramento Valley. Elsewhere,
highs forecast from the 70s at the higher mountain elevations to
lower 90s in portions of the foothills. Weak troughing will keep
the afternoon and evening Delta Breeze cooling intact. JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...

Light S-SW wind through 10K MSL with VFR conds nxt 24 hrs. Local
haze and smoke in northern San Joaquin Valley from Soberanes Fire.
Near surface winds terrain driven with local SW winds up to 25 kts
through Delta. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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