Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$









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