Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 272235
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 PM PDT Sat May 27 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Warming up this weekend. Isolated afternoon showers or
thunderstorms possible over the central Sierra into early next
week.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Monday)...
Good Saturday afternoon from the day shift crew! Looking out our
office window, we see a couple of building cumulonimbus clouds
over the Sierra. Both these cells are showing up on radar in
Tuolumne County with one near the town of Strawberry and the
other over Yosemite. This is a good reminder that if you spend any
time in the mountains during this holiday weekend, make sure you
watch for cloud build ups in the afternoon and avoid being near
thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the
mountains through the weekend and into next week.

Current temperatures are running 4 to 11 degrees warmer than
yesterday as high pressure builds over NorCal. Daytime highs
should top out in the 80s for much of the valley today with a few
spots near or reaching 90 in the northern Sacramento Valley...
60s-70s in the mountains.

Warming trend continues through Monday with another bump of about
5 degrees on Sunday followed by another rise of a degree or two on
Monday. Ridging shifts off to the east for Memorial Day in
advance of trough approaching the West Coast. Models continue to
trend with cooler temperatures on Tuesday. The upper level trough
will help cool off the valley as onshore flow increases by
Tuesday. Valley highs will dip back down into the 80s. Delta
Breeze will also pick up overnight Monday into Tuesday morning
with gusts to 35 mph and a more substantial cooldown across Solano
County.

JBB/CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

An upper level trough moves over the area Wednesday. ECMWF is
still running drier than GFS, though both still show a chance of
isolated thunderstorms over the Coastal Range and Sierra. As the
main trough moves east, a smaller shortwave looks to brush over
the north on Thursday. There could be enough energy to produce a
chance of weak thunderstorms in far northern Shasta county.
Otherwise, temperatures begin rising as ridging builds. Maximum
temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer Thursday, and the
valley could reach low 90s by Friday. Although models are pretty
divergent by the end of the next week, most show dry weather
persisting through the weekend.

HEC


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Winds generally 10 kts or
less for TAF sites with gusts to around 25 knots in vicinity of
the Delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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