Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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310
FXUS66 KSTO 061102
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
402 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend. Drier and
warmer weather is then expected next week.

.Short Term Discussion

Closed low continues to impact our weather today as the center of
the low sits over SoCal today. Models continue to show a vort max
rotating around this low into our region this morning. Current
radar shows evidence of this as showers from Nevada are now
cyclonically moving across the Sierra into our CWA. The HRRR shows
a decent slug of moisture stretching from Yosemite up towards
Lassen Park and moving westward this morning across interior
NorCal between now through late morning with scattered showers
continuing for the rest of the day. Models indicating that the
atmosphere won`t be as unstable as yesterday, but there is still a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lightning has already been
observed this morning over in Nevada. Residents should still be
prepared for periods of downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and
small hail today even though it may not be as widespread as
yesterday.

On Saturday, the low tracks farther east in the Great Basin, but
wrap around moisture will continue to stream into our CWA
continuing the threat of showers and possible thunderstorms into
Sunday. By Sunday, though, coverage will diminish with best
chances of shower activity persisting over the western Sierra
slopes.

Monday will start a drier, warmer trend for the work week as high
pressure ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and impacts
the West Coast. Valley highs will return to the low 80s with
higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. JBB


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Forecast models are advertising a quick moving upper level
disturbance that should slide out of the Pacific Northwest that
may clip portions of northern California on Tuesday. This
disturbance may bring some isolated sprinkles in the mountains,
but no significant precipitation is expected Tuesday or Tuesday
night.

The main story in the long term forecast period is a return to quiet
weather with a pattern of warm and dry weather pushing into
California.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will move eastward
from the Pacific Tuesday night through Wednesday that will bring
above normal high temperatures to the valley through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

A stagnant low pressure system positioned over California will
bring overcast conditions, light rain showers, and chances for
thunderstorms today across the valley. As a result, there will be
periods of MVFR ceilings for the terminals north and south of
Sacramento.

Antecedent moisture from rainfall yesterday could cause some
reduced visibilities and ceilings between MVFR and IFR for
periods this morning for terminals in Sacramento county.

Ceilings and visibilities should improve across the valley Friday
evening with a return to VFR conditions for the terminals.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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