Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260459
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Winds have begun to shift and strengthen across the Rockies and
adjacent plains. The current high wind warning will be continued.
Updated to freshen SKY, POPs, and WX. Also dropped several low
temps that were approaching the overnight lows. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected to continue across north
central, central, and southwest Montana at least through Sunday
evening, except for occasional mountain obscuration by showers and
unless otherwise mentioned. Increasing moisture in the southwesterly
flow aloft has already brought scattered showers to the mountain
areas of western and southwest Montana (including the KHLN and KBZN
terminal areas), which will likely continue through the period.
Otherwise, mid level cloudiness will increase from the west over the
plains, but increasing southwest downslope winds overnight and into
the day on Sunday will generally keep showers from reaching the
ground there. Most areas will have gusts of 25 to 35 kt after 17Z,
but gusts in excess of 45 kt are expected as soon as 12Z along the
Rocky Mountain Front.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
Tonight through Monday...The moist southerly flow aloft has
resulted in mid/high level clouds pushing northward into the region.
Thus afternoon highs where not quite as warm as previously thought
over the western portions of the CWA. A Pacific cool front will move
through the region late tonight and into Sunday morning. Expect
strong southwest winds to develop over the Rocky Mountain Front and
in the Cut Bank area...where the high wind watch has been changed to
a high wind warning. Precip will also develop over the mountains and
in Southwest Montana. Snow levels will gradually lower tonight
through Sunday. Snow accumulations will generally fall above 6000
feet through Sunday. On Sunday night colder air will continue to
move southward into the region...and with an an upper level
disturbance moving southward out of Canada into North Central
MT...there is a good chance for precip over the Northern
Plains...especially in the Havre area. The rain will likely to
change to snow at all elevations by Monday morning. Snow
accumulations Sunday night through Monday at lower elevations will
generally be less than 1 inch...with an inch or two possible in the
mountains. Afternoon temperatures will average 4 to 8 degrees below
normal for Monday afternoon. Brusda

Monday Night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region into Monday.
With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances appear to be
mostly limited to the West and Southwest MT mountains. The system
exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over
the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday
and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. High pressure begins to build over the region Thursday as
a low pressure system off the west coast deepens. Warm southwesterly
flow returns to the region by the end of the week. Temperatures
remain cool into Tuesday before warming into the 60s later in the
week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the plains
remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  51  32  46 /  10  10  40  30
CTB  41  50  29  45 /  10  20  60  30
HLN  43  55  34  49 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  37  52  27  46 /  20  50  20  20
WEY  28  40  19  37 /  30  60  50  30
DLN  39  49  28  45 /  20  40  20  20
HVR  39  57  32  46 /  10  10  70  60
LWT  43  55  33  44 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Sunday Eastern Glacier.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT Sunday Night Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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