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000
FXUS65 KTWC 252210
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY SWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SE AZ
THRU MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. 25/12Z GFS/ECWMF WERE
SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST
SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

TUE-WED...
25/12Z ECMWF/GFS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NRN/
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MAIN IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL A
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS WELL AS COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THUR-SAT...
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME. A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR PARTICULARLY THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME
TEMPS AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
27/00Z. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SLY/SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOME
BREEZES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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