Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270406
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
906 PM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 27/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS PACIFIC
SYSTEM SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...AS WELL AREAS FARTHER NORTH. AT THIS TIME
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WISPS
OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS DRIFTING EAST...AND MOST OF THESE ARE JUST NORTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER WORDING AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 83 DEGS AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 93 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 2 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. SO FAR THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z. SKC WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS. W-SW WINDS WEDNESDAY OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT KDUG AND KOLS...STARTING AROUND 27/18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SLIGHTLY STRONGER S TO
SW WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH SE COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WIND TRENDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL...WITH THE
USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SLOWLY FILLS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
SPLIT CONSOLIDATES NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS OF COURSE THAT WE ARE ABOUT
TO HEAT UP.

THE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TREND WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD AS WE SEE ONE
MORE WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION PHASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THICKNESS LINEAR
REGRESSION ANALYSIS SUPPORTS 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT
TUCSON...WITH MODEL OUTPUT LIKELY A LITTLE UNDERDONE.

DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE WARMING TREND EAST OF TUCSON A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND MAY BRING A FEW BUILDUPS TO EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WON`T CHANGE MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PLEASE NOTE WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO LESS
FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL OUTPUT.

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF BAJA (ORGANIZING OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS) MAY END UP PLAYING A ROLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEATHER
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. IT`S WAY TOO EARLY TO GET A HANDLE ON THAT...JUST
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

IN SUMMARY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOTTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST UP A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THAT PERIOD AND NOW HAVE 3 100+ DEGREE DAYS FORECAST FOR
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (AND PRETTY
CLOSE SATURDAY).

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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