Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302113
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...SOME MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT A
WELL BELOW AVERAGE 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH AN H5 TEMPERATURE AT A RATHER
WARM AND STABLE -3C. THIS HAS OF COURSE LED TO JUST A FEW WEAK CU
FIELDS.

DEW POINT TRENDS ARE UP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW H5 THIS IS MAKING SOME INITIAL INROADS IN
RESTORING MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE WESTERLIES ARE
NOT COOPERATING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KEEPING A DEEPER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WESTERLIES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH MOISTURE
LURKING TO OUR SOUTH STARTING TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. BORDER AREAS INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY SHOULD START TO RAMP UP WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UNDER H5
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PHASES EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. TROPICAL INFLUENCES START TO
REALLY LOAD UP THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THAT SHOULD SLOSH TOWARD OUR AREA
EVEN AS LATE SEASON HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES START TO INTRUDE MORE
AND MORE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE AREN`T DONE WITH OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORM SEASON QUITE YET.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD
LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL






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