Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
306 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will continue at record levels
into the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected early next
week as a system passes north of our area, but dry conditions will


.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure nosing in from the
southwest today, and boy howdy is it ever doing a number on our
temperatures. We`re up 2 to 5 degrees across the area compared to
yesterday. Building on the recent warming trend, that is as much
as 20 degrees above average for the day. Still quite dry with
surface dew points in the lower to middle 20s and precipitable
water values down to around 1/3 of an inch.

These unreasonable temperatures will continue through the weekend,
and may actually gain a degree or so Sunday as the high center
shifts overhead.

A system will move through the region north of our area early next
week. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures Tuesday, but no rain
this far south. Even with the expected 15 to 18 degree drop in
temperature behind the front as it drops through Arizona Monday
night or Tuesday, we`ll still likely be a few degrees above
average for late November.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Expect a few clouds above 20k ft AGL and surface wind variable in
direction mainly less than 12 kts into Friday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue into next Thursday.
20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 10 mph through
this weekend. Expect west to northwest wind gusts near 15 mph Monday
afternoon, then occasionally gusty north to east winds will occur
Tuesday. 20-foot winds next Wednesday will be easterly at 10-20 mph
with higher gusts, then winds diminishing to less than 10 mph next
Thursday afternoon.


.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

The record high for Tucson on Saturday the 25th is 86 degrees set
way back in 1894. This is currently the oldest daily high
temperature that has stood for 122 years. Current forecast high
on Saturday for Tucson is 88 degrees.

Rainfall at the Tucson airport has been pretty non-existent since
the start of September. With no rain likely to occur during the
remainder of November, the three month period (September 1 through
November 30th) will go into the record books as the DRIEST on
record with a measly 0.12". Ugh.






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