Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 090407

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
907 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry weather will
prevail through early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a relatively dry northwest
flow aloft across the southwest, with IR imagery showing some
upstream high level moisture with cirrus clouds over parts of
California, Nevada and Utah headed southeast. For now skies are
clear across southeast Arizona but will see some scattered cirrus
clouds spill into the state late tonight and into Friday.

As of 04Z (9 PM MST), temperatures across the region ranged from the
lower 40s to the mid 50s for desert/valley locations. These readings
seem to be on track with the inherited overnight lows but will
continue to monitor and will make changes if needed.

See the previous discussion below for details beyond tonight.


.AVIATION...Valid through 10/06Z.
Clear skies and surface winds less than 12 kts will prevail
through the period. Favored areas for SE winds such as the Upper
Gila River Valley (in the vicinity of KSAD) could have speeds near
15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected into the middle of next
week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph over the next 7
days, except for some elevated east/southeast 20-foot winds into
Friday in portions of Cochise and Graham counties.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona will be under west
northwest flow aloft into the middle of next week. Weather systems
will pass to our north bringing us occasional mid to high level
clouds, especially Sunday into Tuesday. A sprinkle or flurry over
the Mogollon Rim during that time period would not be a surprise but
at this point no measurable precipitation is expected. Daytime
temperatures should generally be above normal starting Friday.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night except in locales where
southeast winds pick up late tonight. Those spots will not quite dip
to the readings experienced this morning.

High pressure will shift from the Pacific into northern Mexico Wed
and Thur which should bring SE AZ even warmer temperatures.
Looking beyond that, models are in fair agreement that a weather
system will begin to spread clouds into our area late Thursday and
could yield a round of light precipitation by Thursday night. Since
models have weakened this system a bit over the past couple of runs,
am not very confident that much precip will occur, but will include
a slight chance of showers Thursday night of next week in far
eastern areas.






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