Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTWC 050845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER YESTERDAY IS DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...BISECTING THE STATE...AND EXTENDING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING
PINCHED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING..THEN EXPECT INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE KTUS TERMINAL TO
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN AFTER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.