Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 102124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FURTHER THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION
WED/THURS THE MODEL OUTPUTS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 10/12Z GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF CA WHICH COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE 10/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW...LEAVING OUR AREA DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SO...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SCT ABOVE 25K FT AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS


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