Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241118

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
418 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Current upper level analysis has large trof over the central and
western CONUS with shortwave currently ejecting out of the trof
over the Northern Plains. Skies are cloudy across the area, with
some light snow starting to lift north across southern SD. At the
surface, arctic high pressure resides across eastern SD, with a
weak surface low over eastern WY. Temperatures at 3 am are in the
single digits and teens, with winds light out of the south.

Upper level shortwave will lift northeast across central and
eastern SD today, with light snow expected across the SD plains.
Snow accumulations will range from a trace across far western SD,
to 2 to 3 inches across far south central SD. As the upper wave
lifts northeast, the surface low will slowly track east, with
northwest winds developing behind the system. West to northwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected this afternoon, which will also
bring in some milder temperatures. Highs today will be in the mid
20s to mid 30s, warmest across southwestern SD.

Upper shortwave quickly lifts northeast of the area by late
afternoon, with decreasing clouds this evening and overnight.
Westerly boundary layer flow will continue overnight, with low
temperatures in the single digits and teens.

Another weak upper trof will cross the Northern Plains on Sunday,
but main energy and precipitation remain south of the forecast
area. Skies will be variably cloudy with temperatures rising into
the 30s. Weak ridging moves into the area late in the day and into
Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will fall into the teens.

Mainly dry conditions are expected next week under somewhat zonal
flow. Models are showing a low pressure system developing over
southern CA early in the week, but most of the energy associated
with this system should stay south of the CWA. Temperatures will
remain slightly below average into next week, with highs in the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 414 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas of MVFR/LCL IFR conditions with periods of -SN will occur
over south central South Dakota until 23Z this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.




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