Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 280527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
WEAK RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH THE SW CONUS. COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES ARE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM
ARE IN THE 20S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE ZERO TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
IN MOST AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...BASE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN SD EARLY
SUNDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL TURN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY REACHED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...UPPER TEENS AND 20S. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL
INTENSITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND
20:1 WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH
SNOWFALL BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST WY
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. BASE OF
UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH ENVELOPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS 1055MB HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WELL BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO -15 TO -30F...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND. THIS WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDS TO THE AREA
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






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