Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class flares observed
during the period. New Region 2541 (N05E58, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight
growth and was responsible for a B6 flare at 03/0817 UTC. Region 2539
(N16E01, Eai/beta) remained mostly unchanged, as did Region 2536
(N16W32, Dao/beta). The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and
stable.

Analysis of the 02/0912 UTC CME reflected a near miss to Earth during a
time just outside of this forecast period. No impacts are expected from
this CME. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares
likely on all three days (03-05 May) of the forecast period, due to the
return of old active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) on 03 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 03/1040 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (03-05 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, continued to
reflect an enhanced solar wind environment, likely in response to a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
began the period near 450 km/s, persisted near this speed through
02/1600 UTC, and gradually increasing to speeds near 580 km/s by 02/2140
UTC. Speeds remained at about 550 km/s through periods end.

Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1 to 9 nT, leveling off
near the end of the period to average near 5 nT. The Bz component was
predominantly southward through the period, with a maximum southward
deflection of -8 nT, observed at about 02/0100 UTC. Some brief northward
fluctuations to +3 nT were observed, mainly near the end of the period.
Phi angle continued in a predominately negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements are expected to decrease on day one (03 May)
with a trend towards background conditions expected for days two and
three (04-05 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, with an
isolated period of minor storming (G1-Minor) during the 02/2100-2400 UTC
synoptic period, likely in response to the continued high speed solar
winds and prolonged southward IMF orientation.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin trending towards less
enhanced conditions, with quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of
day one (03 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and
three (04-05 May) as the solar wind environment decreases to
near-background levels.


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