Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C5/Sf at
29/0554 UTC from Region 2177 (N11E31, Eac/beta-gamma). The region showed
intermediate spot development and overall growth. Regions 2172 (S12W43,
Fhc/beta-gamma) and 2175 (N17W64, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) both continued
to grow during the period as well but remained relatively quiet. Region
2173 (S16W54, Eac/beta-gamma) showed consolidation in its trailer spots
and produced three C-class events, the largest of which was a C3/Sf at
29/2132 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are expected with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) over the next three days (30 Sep
- 02 Oct). Regions 2172, 2173 and 2175 are the most likely sources for
significant flare production.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of
1500 pfu at 29/1630 UTC.

.Forecast...
A slight but increasing chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) is forecast for the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct) with
Regions 2172, 2173, and 2175 the most likely sources. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate
to high levels for the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft indicated a gradual decrease in
speeds beginning the period at about 385 km/s and ending near 360 km/s.
The total IMF Bt remained around 4-6 nT while the Bz component varied
between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle remained oriented in a positive (away)
sector for the majority of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) over the next three days (30 Sep - 02
Oct) as we move from one high speed stream to another over the next 48
hours.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
active period observed at 29/2100 UTC.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active
periods all three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct) due to influence from two
successive high speed streams.



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