Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 281230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels this period.  Region 2294 (S13W21,
Dai/beta-gamma) was the most active region this period, producing a
long-duration C5/Sf flare at 28/0939 UTC, a C2/Sf flare at 28/0528 UTC,
and a C1/Sf flare at 28/0747 UTC.  Region 2290 (N22W54, Cao/beta)
produced a pair of C1/Sf flares at 28/2309 UTC and 28/0808 UTC.  Regions
2293 (N07E22, Dac/beta) and 2294 continued a moderate growth trend this
period while Region 2290 was in decay.

An eruptive prominence (EPL) centered near N22W77 was observed by
ground-based observatories as well as in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 27/2304
UTC.  A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/0000 UTC, but was
determined to be well west of the Sun-Earth line.

Another filament eruption centered near N20E70 was observed at 28/0225
UTC in SDO/AIA 193 imagery with a subsequent CME visible in C2
coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/0312 UTC.  Initial analysis
indicates that this CME is directed well east of the Sun-Earth line.

Additional CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery this period but
were associated with far-sided solar activity.  The most notable of
which was a backsided full-halo CME that was observed in C2
imagery beginning at 28/0500 UTC.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flare activity over the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
this period.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced
this period, but remained well below event thresholds.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background
levels for the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were nominal.  Solar wind
speeds were steady in the mid-300 km/s range.  IMF total field values
increased from initial values near 2 nT early in the period to 9 nT late
in the period and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -6 nT.
The phi angle was largely variable this the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to increase late on day one (28 Feb)
due to a solar sector boundary change followed by effects from the
negative polarity, southern polar crown coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS).  Recurrence data suggests solar wind velocities in excess of
700 km/s and Bt values in excess of 20 nT could be observed during this
event.  Upon the anticipated onset late on day one (28 Feb), CH HSS
influence is expected to persist through days two and three (01-02 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under
a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled
levels until late on day one (28 Feb) when unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions are likely due to the onset of the
anticipated solar sector boundary change followed by the recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS.  Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions are likely for days two and three (01-02 Mar) as CH HSS
influence persists.



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