Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 110031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to an isolated C4 flare at 10/1715
UTC from Region 2615 (S06, L=141) just beyond the west limb.  An
associated CME was observed off the west limb beginning at 10/1736 UTC
observed in coronagraph imagery.  This CME is not expected to have a
geoeffective component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (11-13
Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels
with a maximum flux of 10,713 pfu observed at 10/1900 UTC.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels throughout the forecast period (11-13 Dec).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all
three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speeds ranged from 622 km/s to 721 km/s.
Total field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was between
+5 nT and -4 nT.  Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative (towards)
sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced but in decline over
the forecast period (11-13 Dec) as CH HSS influence slowly wanes.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to
persistent CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Dec), and
mostly quiet levels on day three (13 Dec) as CH HSS effects slowly
diminish.


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