Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 251231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Nov 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was
a C1 flare at 25/0827 UTC from the NW limb. Coronal dimming was noted
around the flare region in SDO/AIA 193 imagery but no associated coronal
mass ejection (CME) has been observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Another CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0125
UTC but appears to be associated with a far-side event.

Newly numbered Region 2460 (N13e36, Cro/beta) developed an intermediate
spot and leader spot with rudimentary penumbra over the past 24 hours.
Region 2458 (N08E40, Dai/beta) developed new intermediate spots with
penumbra and exhibited penumbral dissipation in the trailer spot. Region
2459 (N04E66, Cai/beta) underwent umbral growth in its  intermediate and
trailer spot. Region 2457 (N12E05, Dai/beta) remained relatively stable
with only minor dissipation observed among the intermediate spots.

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor to Moderate) Radio Blackouts for the
next three days (25-27 Nov).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Nov). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at nominal
levels. Wind speeds ranged between 265 km/s to near 370 km/s. Total
field strength (Bt) was steady at 3-4 nT while the Bz component varied
between -2 and +3 nT. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards
the Sun) throughout the period.

Solar wind parameters may see a weak enhancement on day one (25 Nov)
through day two (26 Nov) with the onset of a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By day three (27 Nov), wind parameters
are expected to reflect a nominal solar wind regime.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with an isolated active period, on day one (25 Nov) from the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (26 Nov) is expected to see quiet to
unsettled levels as positive polarity CH HSS influence wanes. Mostly
quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled conditions are expected
on day three (27 Nov). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.