Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 311230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2403 (S15W92, Dao/beta)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 flare at 31/0522 UTC, as
it rotated around the west limb. All other regions remained simple and
inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on day one (31 Aug) with
a chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor). Activity is expected to decrease
on days two and three (01-02 Sep) to only a chance for C-class flares as
Region 2403 rotates around the west limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 1900 pfu at 31/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
high levels on days one and two (31 Aug - 01 Sep). A decrease to normal
to moderate levels are expected on day three (02 Sep) as an anticipated
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) increases
geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
be at background levels (Below S1-Minor).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated a
return to mostly ambient conditions from the influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind velocities began the period around 440 km/s
and gradually decreased to around 400 km/s. Total field remained around
5 nT and Bz was variable between -3 nT and 5 nT. Phi remained
predominantly negative (towards) throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to remain near ambient conditions until
the arrival of an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC)
ahead of a CH HSS on day two (01 Sep). Continued enhancement in wind
velocity is expected on day three (02 Sep) as the influence of the HSS
persists.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
until day two (01 Sep) when the field is expected to see activity
increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of the CH HSS becoming geoeffective. The
potential for G1 (Minor) storm levels is likely to persist into day
three (02 Sep).



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