Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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378
FXXX12 KWNP 180031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. Region 2687 (S08E31, Hax/alpha) and
newly numbered Region 2688 (N11W32, Bxo/beta) were relatively simple and
quiet. An impulsive B6 flare at 17/0028 UTC from Region 2687 was the
strongest event of the period.

A disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery
lifting off near S23E61, at approximately 16/1813 UTC. The associated
CME signature was analyzed and modeled. The WSA-Enlil results indicated
no Earth-directed component was present.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flaring throughout the forecast period (18-20 Nov) due to Region
2687 and Region 2688.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 18-20 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated an enhanced solar wind environment.
Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained below 5 nT while the Bz
component was variable with a maximum southward value of -5 nT. Solar
wind speeds declined from around 500 km/s to near 450 km/s by the
periods end. Phi was oriented in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (18-20 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. A waning trend is
expected to transition into an additional enhancement on day two (19
Nov) due to the anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (18 Nov). An increase to active levels is likely over
days two and three (19 - 20 Nov) as another positive polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective.



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