Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 2497 (N13W13,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flares of the period, an M1
flare at 12/1047 UTC and a C8/1f flare at 11/2103 UTC.  Associated with
the C8 flare were Type II and Type IV radio sweeps (est. shock speed of
483 km/s) as well as a partial-halo CME.  CME analysis is currently in
progress, however preliminary results indicate an arrival early on 15
February.

Region 2492 (N14W71, Axx/alpha) also produced several C-flares including
a C2/Sf flare at 12/0636 UTC.  Slight growth and consolidation was
observed in Region 2497 as well as the formation of a delta within its
larger intermediate spots.  Slight decay was observed in Region 2494
(S14W90, Axx/alpha) as it was leaving the visible disk.  New Region 2499
(N11E44, Axx/alpha) was numbered today.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares
(R3-Strong or greater) over the next three days (12-14 Feb) due to the
increased complexity and activity of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (12-13 Feb) with the potential to
reach high levels by day three (14 Feb).

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 levels over the next three days (12-14 Feb) due to the
complexity and position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive-polarity CH HSS.  Solar
wind speed increased from 320 km/s to near 365 km/s with an increase in
total field from 5 nT to 15 nT.  The Bz component was mostly south
(maximum of -10 nT) between 11/1937-12/0306 UTC.  Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced on day one (12 Feb)
as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.
Day two (13 Feb) is likely to see subsiding influence of the CH HSS.  A
return to mostly nominal conditions is expected by day three (14 Feb).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active periods
occurred between 11/2100-12/0300 UTC and 12/0900-1200 UTC likely due to
effects from a co-rotating interaction region preceding a CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active conditions on
day one (12 Feb) as CIR/CH HSS effects persist.  Day two (13 Feb) is
expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions as influence from the CH
HSS wanes. Day three (14 Feb) will likely see mostly quiet conditions
under a nominal solar wind environment.


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