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FXXX12 KWNP 191231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M6/2N (R2-moderate)
flare which occurred at 18/2158 UTC from Region 2241 (S09W00,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and an M1/1n (R1-Minor) at 19/0944 UTC from Region
2242 (S18W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta).  An associated Type-II radio sweep
(estimated speed of 664 km/s) was observed associated with the M6 flare
as well as an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 19/0104 UTC.  There was a
concurrent filament eruption off the SE limb during this time, however
imagery gaps preclude the differentiation of the two events.  Continued
growth was observed in the intermediate areas of Regions 2241 and 2242
with very apparent E-W oriented deltas.  WSA/ENLIL modeling of the CME
shows a likely arrival around early to mid-day on 21 December.

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (19-21 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. A chance also exists for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near
background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (19-21 Dec). There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the
potential for a proton producing solar event from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds
around 330 to 420 km/s.  Total field was relatively steady near 7 nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between +/-7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly
positive (away).

Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
majority of day one (19 Dec). Disturbed solar wind conditions are
anticipated beginning mid to late on day one (19 Dec) and early to
midday on day three (21 Dec) as a glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME
followed by the arrival of the 18 Dec CME are expected to impact the
geomagnetic field.  Solar wind speeds reaching 650-750 km/s are
estimated with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions
until late on day one to early on day two (19-20 Dec) when the 17 Dec
CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field.  Unsettled to active
conditions, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor)
are expected through midday on day two.  By early to midday on day three
(21 Dec), the 18 Dec CME is expected to cause active to major storm
(G2-Moderate) conditions as it impacts the geomagnetic field. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.