Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low due to a few C-class flares. Region 2644 (N12E04,
Dsi/beta-gamma) grew in areal coverage, but despite its mixed polarity
field, magnetic shear weakened and the intermediate spots decreased in
number. The region produced a C1/Sf flare at 28/0027 UTC and only
occasional B-flares afterwards. Region 2645 (S09E44, Dsi/beta-gamma)
grew in area and gained a mixed polarity it the trailing spot field. The
regions instability was evident in its production of occasional C-class
flares, the largest was a C3/Sf at 28/0456 UTC, and frequent B-class
flares. Region 2646 (N07W74, Axx/alpha) underwent decay and was
inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) the next two days (29-30 Mar) due
primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 2644 and 2645.
Based off the trend towards decreased complexity of Region 2644, solar
activity on day three (31 Mar) is expected to be very low, with a chance
for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux began the period at normal levels,
but increased and reached high levels due to CH HSS influences; with a
maximum flux of 14,903 pfu at 28/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels all three days (29-31 Mar), with a chance for very high levels by
day three (31 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Total IMF
strength decreased from early period values of 7 nT, to hold steady at 4
to 5 nT most of the period. The Bz component was in a prolonged state of
southward orientation early in the period, before it became more
direction varied, with weak deviations the remainder of the period.
Solar wind speed ranged from ranged primarily from 625-700 km/s. The phi
angle was negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue at speeds over 600 km/s over
the next three days (29-31 Mar) as influences from the negative,
southern polar CH HSS extension continue.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the first
two synoptic periods, likely due to elevated solar wind speed from the
CH HSS along with the prolonged period of favorable IMF orientation. The
geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels afterwards.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active,
with an isolated period of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming likely on day
one (29 Mar) due to elevated solar wind speeds; coupled with any period
of prolonged, favorable IMF orientation. The overall planetary
geomagnetic response on day two (30 Mar) is expected to be primarily
unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming
likely as CH HSS influences continue. The geomagnetic field on day three
(31 Mar) is expected to be primarily unsettled to active, with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storm levels, as CH HSS effects continue.


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