Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 301949
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY 3-8 PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING COOL AND
WET WEATHER TO MANY LOCATIONS.

ACROSS THE WEST...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST. AT THE SFC...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NE OFFSHORE WINDS. DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL DRY FUELS RESULTING IN ELEVATED
/POTENTIALLY LOCAL CRITICAL/ CONDITIONS ON DAYS 3-4/THU-FRI. BY THE
WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. BUT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

...SRN CA COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS - THUR/FRI-DAY 3/4...

THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY /DAY 2/ NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY /DAY 3/ WHEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH THROUGH
FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF
VENTURA...LOS ANGELES AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS /15-25 MPH/ IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AS FAR SOUTH AS RIVERSIDE...ORANGE AND FAR NORTHWEST SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...BUT THE LONGER DURATION THREAT/STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. RH VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND
20 PERCENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND
5-10 MPH LIGHTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

SHOULD WIND SPEEDS TREND STRONGER...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME DRYNESS.

..LEITMAN.. 09/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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