Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 172136
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

The primary feature of interest for elevated to potentially critical
fire weather concerns across parts of the southern Plains will be an
upper trough that will move eastward from the western CONUS to the
Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 5/Sunday. At the surface,
large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage a low
to develop over the central High Plains by Friday evening. This low
should subsequently develop east-northeastward across the central
Plains from Day 4/Saturday into Day 5/Sunday in tandem with the
ejecting upper trough.

...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday: Portions of the Southern Plains...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement with the timing and
amplitude of the upper trough moving across the western CONUS and
southern/central High Plains through Day 4/Saturday. The
40%/marginal area across parts of the southern High Plains for Day
3/Friday has been continued with minor changes. Across this region,
strong/gusty downslope winds appear likely to combine with RH values
near or just below critical thresholds and dry fuels. A somewhat
greater potential for critical conditions may develop across parts
of east-central NM into the TX Panhandle, and this area will be
monitored for a possible upgrade in later outlooks.

Strong/gusty downslope winds should occur again on Day 4/Saturday
over the same general area as Day 3/Friday. Therefore, a
40%/marginal delineation remains in effect for this portion of the
southern High Plains. Limited confidence in a sufficient overlap of
these strong/gusty winds with critically lowered RH values precludes
a 70%/critical area for Day 4/Saturday at this time.

Medium-range guidance begins to diverge slightly with the
timing/placement of the upper trough across the Plains by Day
5/Sunday. Still, the potential for critical conditions remains
apparent from parts of west TX into western OK, where a 40%/marginal
area is in place. This area may need to be expanded/shifted some
across the southern Plains once guidance comes into greater
agreement in highlighting the best overlap of strong/gusty winds
with lowered RH values, and a 70%/critical area may eventually be
needed as well.

..Gleason.. 01/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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