Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS28 KWNS 242004
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

THROUGH MID-WEEK...RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN
AND TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...D3/TUE -- NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN. PW
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-0.7 INCHES AND STOUT CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
WILL INTERSECT A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A
DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO DRY...A
SUFFICIENT DRY-THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE REALIZED...SUCH THAT A
10-PERCENT AREA IS INTRODUCED.

...D6/FRI-D7/SAT -- GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH/ WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS EASTERN ORE/WESTERN NV AND POINTS EAST. DRY FUELS...A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FAVORABLE PW VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME DRY-THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ACROSS MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN ON
D6/FRI AND THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOW RH/WIND
CONCERNS. WHILE TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO GREAT FOR
PROBABILISTIC AREAS AT THIS TIME...THEY MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN
LATER FORECASTS.

..PICCA.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.