Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 242043
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE SW STATES AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN EWD TO THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS -- D3/SUN THROUGH D8/FRI...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
PARTS OF THE WRN UNITED STATES...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER PARTS
OF THE ERN CONUS AND ADJACENT WRN NORTH ATLANTIC. SWLY/SLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVERLYING DRY SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK EACH AND EVERY DAY
ACROSS A BROAD AREA AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS.

THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ERN PACIFIC. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TO ITS E ATOP DRY
SFC CONDITIONS/FUELS...WITH SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG IN
SOME AREAS. THIS WILL LOCALLY EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

CRITICAL AREAS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED FOR D5/TUE AND D6/WED...FOLLOWING
THE LATEST MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING
GEFS OUTPUT. ON D5/TUE...THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
AZ...NM...SRN CO...AND FAR SWRN TX. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO PARTS OF ERN/SRN NM...SERN
CO...AND FAR SWRN TX ON D6/WED...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE BASE
OF THE WRN-CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH A BROADER AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW.

ASIDE FROM THE CRITICAL AREAS OUTLINED ON D5/TUE AND
D6/WED...ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS EACH AND EVERY DAY.
HOWEVER...LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND/OR REGIONS OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LARGE FIRES CURRENTLY PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ADDITIONAL
CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 05/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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