Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 022040
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 101200Z

A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NWRN CONUS/GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE
EJECTING EWD/ENEWD TO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. A
WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH...SUPPORTING AREAS OF
ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR D3/FRI...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE MUTUAL OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN NV AND WRN UT WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN MANY AREAS. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
INCLUDED...SURROUNDED BY MARGINAL DESIGNATION ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF
NV/UT EXTENDING INTO SERN ID WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY.

SOME FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF SRN/ERN NV TO
CNTRL WY ON D4/SAT...SPREADING ENEWD AND AFFECTING PARTS OF WY AND
SERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB ON D5/SUN...AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS EWD/ENEWD. MARGINAL AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR BOTH OF
THESE DAYS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXTEND TO THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
FURTHERMORE...AREAS OF LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD --
ENCOURAGED BY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BEFORE SFC DRYING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS -- MAY MITIGATE
THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK OVER SOME LOCATIONS. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED FOR D4/SAT OR D5/SUN...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

FOR D6/MON...D7/TUE...AND D8/WED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXIST...AND THE BULK OF THESE SOLUTIONS OFFER LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FACTORS
PRECLUDE PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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