Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 291953
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
A deep, closed mid-level low over the Mississippi Valley will
dominate the synoptic pattern at the beginning of the forecast
period. Strong, cyclonically oriented mid-level flow will surround
this low in much of the central part of the country. With time,
this low will migrate eastward, reaching Lake Superior by D4/Tue and
evolving into an open wave while accelerating eastward across
southeastern Canada through D5/Wed. Beyond that time frame, another
wave will migrate southeastward across the Plains on D6/Thu while
amplifying across Texas as a ridge develops over the West.
At the surface, lee cyclogenesis in west Texas will be a primary
factor for elevated fire weather conditions in the southern Rockies
through D5/Wed. Beyond that period, models indicate a lull in
large-scale fire weather as the surface pressure gradient relaxes in
dry areas of the southwest and a moist low-level airmass persists in
much of the southeast.
...D3/Mon through D5/Wed - Portions of the Southern Rockies...
Periods of dry westerly/northwesterly surface flow will develop each
afternoon in the region in response to a gradually deepening surface
low in west Texas. Models suggest that critically low RH values
will exist in the region along with a continued dry pattern, further
supporting at least an elevated fire weather threat in the region.
40% probabilities have been maintained in this forecast to highlight
locations of greatest concern during this period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...