Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 291645
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 291700Z - 301200Z

THE NERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN SHRUNK
SLIGHTLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NM...AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SWLY FLOW BEHIND A SFC DRYLINE WILL STRUGGLE TO
ADVANCE EWD PAST THE CNTRL NM MTN CHAIN. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

..GLEASON.. 05/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN-STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD FROM SRN
CA TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. STRONGER WLY FLOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL FEATURE AN
EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A
DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM W TX INTO CNTRL NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SFC WINDS OCCURRING TO ITS W
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NM.

...SERN AZ...SWRN/CNTRL NM...
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CA...AND W OF A DRYLINE MIXING E
TO NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR
20 MPH POSSIBLE. VERY DEEP DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR
AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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