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FNUS22 KWNS 230701

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

Upper trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS at the
beginning of the period is expected to shift eastward into more of
the eastern CONUS while the embedded upper low moves across the
middle MS Valley into the TN Valley. Upper ridging is expected
across the Plans in the wake of the upper trough with another
shortwave trough following behind the upper ridge across the
northern Rockies and Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a
large area of low pressure will drift across the eastern CONUS while
lee troughing deepens across the High Plains. Cyclogenesis is
anticipated within this lee troughing across eastern WY.

A more progressive upper pattern will foster a modest increase in
westerly flow aloft over the region. A tightening of the surface
pressure gradient is also expected as lower pressures from the High
Plains westward are paired with higher pressures across the Plains.
Deep boundary-layer mixed within this environment will result in
gusty winds across a large portion of the Southwest states. In
addition to increased wind speeds, a very dry antecedent airmass
will support afternoon RH values in the low teens and upper
single-digits. The combination of low RH and gusty winds will likely
result in meteorological conditions supportive of a critical fire
weather threat. However, fuel guidance continues to show ERC values
around the 60-75th percentile and above-average 100-hr and 1000-hr
fuel moisture, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. As a
result, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a large
part of the Southwest. Some locally critical conditions are possible
in areas where fuels are sufficiently dry.

..Mosier.. 05/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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