Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 301740
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THE ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS
UPDATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
OVERLAP OF LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY BEING CONFINED IN
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NV. WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 09/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON
D2/SAT...AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE SLOWLY OPENS AND DRIFTS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MEANDERS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  STRONG /40-50 KNOT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ATOP
DRY AREAS OF NEVADA/IDAHO/OREGON DURING THE DAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF A SURFACE LOW WEST OF WASHINGTON
STATE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST.

...FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO...AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS...PARTIALLY OWING TO A WEAKER SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  NEVERTHELESS...10-20 MPH
SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED /LOCALLY STRONGER IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA/.  DRY...PERHAPS
VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 7-10 PERCENT IN WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA...AND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DESPITE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60-65F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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