Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 020843
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SILVER SPRINGS SV20...FDEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST AT ABOUT
15 MPH. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DISPERSIONS TO AROUND 65 TODAY AROUND THE
PRESCRIBED BURN AREA.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE MORNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR 1 TO 2 MILES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 18
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 61.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........51     61     55     56
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TSTM COV........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............84     90     93     92
RH..............70     54     44     46
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 7   SW 9   SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     16     16
DISPERSION IDX..19     44     44     60
LVORI...........3      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     40     50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8
                    TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....62 DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........53     48     45     37     26     18
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
TEMP............88     83     79     77     76     74
RH..............54     63     74     79     79     87
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 8    SW 5   S 3    SW 3   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     14            5      5      5
DISPERSION IDX..59     17     7      4      4      4
LVORI...........1      2      3      4      4      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     20     10     10     10     5

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 28 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO NEAR 58 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........18     40     44     49     55     55
WEATHER COV.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............73     75     85     91     94     93
RH..............90     84     63     50     44     46
20 FT WIND......SW 2   SW 2   SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             10     10     15
DISPERSION IDX..4      10     28     54     44     55
LVORI...........6      4      2      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).5      10     10     20     30     30

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...SALLY LIEB
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150702.SILVE.01/JAX



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