Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231602
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2017

                 VALID OCTOBER 23 THROUGH OCTOBER 28

...IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK OVER THE WGRFC AREA, BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT FRIDAY...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level storm system moved from central Texas to
northeast Arkansas the past 24 hours.  This disturbance pushed a cold
front across the region, and showers and a few thunderstorms occurred
along and behind this front over the southeast half of Texas and
Louisiana.  Since the front was very progressive the rainfall amounts
were not excessive.  Over the past 24 hours the largest rainfall
totals were noted over the Texas Gulf coastal region where the area
around Richmond received 1.55 to 3.00 inches.  Some locations near
Houston also got around 1.50 inches.  The rainfall over the weekend
was not heavy enough to cause any river flooding. Since the storm
moved east out of the WGRFC area Sunday afternoon the rainfall
ended.

A ridge of high pressure has formed west of the WGRFC area.  This
ridge is bringing dry weather to the WGRFC area.  Since this ridge
will be amplifying over the western US throughout most of this week,
no rainfall is expected.  A secondary cold front is expected to move
across Texas tonight, but no precipitation is expected with its
passage.

By Thursday night the ridge should retrograde westward to a position
just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  This will allow the
next storm system and cold front to move southeastward toward the
WGRFC area.  There will be a chance for precipitation over northern
New Mexico and southern Colorado late Thursday into Friday morning.
Thereafter there may be some showers over portions of east Texas
and western Louisiana on Friday as the front moves through the
state. By Friday night and Saturday the ridge of high pressure will
move east over Nevada.  This will result in cooler and drier
conditions over the WGRFC region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme east Texas and the northern half of
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, the eastern third of
Texas and western Louisiana.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 19%, and only 4% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions (mainly over extreme
northeast Texas). In New Mexico, 8% of the state is experiencing
abnormally dry conditions. The rainfall this past weekend likely
brought some drought relief.  The rainfall which is forecast the next
5 days today will not produce any runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue on the Rio Grande above the Rio
Conchos confluence.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are below criteria
levels and are expected to remain below criteria levels for the next
5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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