Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251604
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017

                   VALID MARCH 25 THROUGH MARCH 30

...RAINFALL EXPECTED MID-WEEK ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC
AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

For the WGRFC most western region, tranquil weather is expected today
as an upper level ridge of high pressure moves through New Mexico. A
weak system will move through northern New Mexico tonight and Sunday,
bringing a few rain and snow showers at higher elevations mainly to
the northern mountains. A much stronger storm system will bring rain
and high mountain snow to much of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current weather prediction models suggest that this system will tap
deep Gulf of Mexico moisture, bringing the potential for significant
rain and high mountain snow, especially to the north and eastern half
of the state.

For Texas, drier weather will arrive on Monday with a surge of
moisture back into the region on Tuesday. A powerful storm system
will be advancing out of the Desert Southwest, and West Texas may
see significant convective storm activity Tuesday afternoon. Some of
this activity may reach our western zones as early as Tuesday
evening. As the system spreads east across North and Central
Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday, widespread showers and
thunderstorms will occur. While too early to highlight specific
amounts, this is looking more likely to be the most widespread
significant rain event in many weeks.

We expect storm activity to increase as spring has recently arrived.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to nearly 3
inches are forecast for most of Texas and the northeastern half of
New Mexico with the heaviest amounts expected for the northern half
of Texas.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss. This is indicated in the current
U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area considered
to be abnormally dry increased to 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe
drought. In New Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the
moderate drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall is forecast across north Texas at the end of the 5 day
forecast period.  WGRFC is monitoring this situation.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


$$





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