Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261654
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2017

                  VALID FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 3

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A frontal system currently located in western Texas and eastern
New Mexico this Sunday morning will be moving eastward, reaching
north central Texas by Monday morning. Rainfall chances for the
eastern half of Texas will be on the increase by this afternoon with
light to moderate amounts forecast in the next 24 hours. The heavier
amounts in excess of one inch are most likely in far northeastern
Texas in the evening and overnight. No flooding concerns are
anticipated from this rainfall event.

The stalled frontal system and a dryline are expected to remain in
Texas until Wednesday, with unstable air to the east of the
boundaries. This will lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms
in the eastern half of Texas Monday and Tuesday. Once again, the
higher rainfall forecasts are near the eastern border of the state.

More significant snowfall than has occurred in recent days is
forecast for western portions of Colorado and New Mexico starting
Monday evening as an upper level disturbance approaches from the
west. By late Tuesday evening, snow should begin winding down because
the disturbance will have moved eastward over southwestern Kansas. A
final round of showers and thunderstorms is then forecast for the
eastern half of Texas late Tuesday through Wednesday morning as the
upper level disturbance moves across Kansas and a cold front crosses
Texas. Thereafter, dry and colder weather is anticipated into the
weekend in most areas, with the exception of continued chances for
rainfall near the Texas Gulf Coast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.25 inch are forecast for portions of eastern
and northeastern Texas, with the heaviest amounts in the
northeastern corner.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado and northwestern New
Mexico. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of
eastern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado and northwestern
New Mexico and for portions of northeastern Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast for coastal and southeastern Texas.

Rainfall continued to improve the soil moisture conditions across
much of Texas. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas showed the
area considered to be abnormally dry was at 8.4%.  Also, 2% of Texas
was experiencing moderate drought conditions and  less than 1% was in
severe drought. In New Mexico the drought monitor shows around 13% of
the state experiencing  abnormally dry conditions, with 2.5%
remaining in moderate drought. The rainfall forecast the next few
days will not produce significant runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers in Texas continue to recede after responding to the early week
rainfall.   Out of bank flows continue in portions of the lower Brazos
and upper Trinity basins.   No significant rainfall is forecast
across WGRFC in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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