Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281646
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1146 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

                   VALID JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2

...FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER BIGGEST IMPACT TO
WGRFC AREA IS OUT WEST IN NEW MEXICO...


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The front forecasted to move through north Texas has pushed through
bringing with it little moisture this far south for Texas.  Out west
however, the front generated consistent lift over the evening hours
dropping 3 to 4 inches in areas on northeast Mexico, but the WGRFC
area only saw at most a half an inch.  Most of New Mexico did see
rainfall which will benefit the ongoing drought temporarily.  As for
the rest of today, the front will continue to push through Texas, but
a lack of surface moisture will limit any widespread rainfall that
has been occurring in Oklahoma.  Isolated showers are possible and
forming in portions of north Texas, but nothing of significance.

Looking into the next few days, the front should hang around through
tomorrow but should only really impact the western areas of the
WGRFC.  The lack of strong southerly flow at the surface will inhibit
any source of large scale moisture limiting the rainfall chances for
most of Texas.  However strong convergence near the surface low in
southern Colorado should generate enough instability to create a
pretty good rainfall system north of the WGRFC.  Though enhanced
rainfall will continue in the monsoonal areas of New Mexico from this
system.  Even with the higher rainfall totals expected out west, no
flooding is expected at this time.  Will continue to monitor in case
an isolated regions to receive significant amounts.

Looking in the extended look, the surface low pressure system should
move along the upper level trough axis, and with the current forecast
will stay too far north to create any major rainfall impact to north
Texas late this week.  There is a chance that rainfall will creep
into north Texas bringing some precipitation, but a glancing blow is
the best that can be expected.  This is all contingent on the
forecast of the upper level trough being accurate, a shift to the
south and west will help north Texas chances for increased
precipitation.  As the front gets closer to the coast as well
moisture availability will increase and higher rainfall values are
possible looking as far as Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecasted for much of the WGRFC
areas in New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for isolated areas around New Mexico and southeast Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inches are forecasted for far northeast Texas with the front, as well
as northern New Mexico with the monsoonal flow enhanced by the
surface low.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of widespread 0.25 up
to an inch are forecasted for central and eastern Texas as well as
New Mexico.  Rain chances for most of WGRFC except for panhandle
and deep south Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast.  Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this
time of year.  Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across
the area.  No significant flooding is expected through the end of the
forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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