Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

                 VALID AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN ELSEWHERE...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over southern New
Mexico this morning.  The upper level high will begin shifting
southwestward towards southern Arizona later today. This ridge
relocation will not have much impact on the weather over the WGRFC
area.  However, an upper level shortwave trough is moving across the
central Rockies.  This will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to form over New Mexico and Colorado this afternoon
through the evening hours.  And due to the monsoon, mainly diurnal
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each one of the next five
days over this region. While the rainfall will not be heavy, isolated
locations may get one to two inches of rain on any given day.

With the high pressure ridge west of Texas, an outflow boundary from
previous thunderstorms produced some rain over southwest Texas
Wednesday afternoon.  This rain dissipated during the evening hours.
Excessive amounts did not occur, but isolated locations did receive
close to one inch of rain.

The upper level shortwave trough over the Colorado Rockies is
expected to move over the central plains on Friday.  This trough may
produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Texas
panhandle, which may spread into northwestern Texas later Friday. The
showers and thunderstorms will likely remain to the north of the
WGRFC area.  Therefore mostly dry weather conditions will persist
over most of Texas and western Louisiana this weekend.

By Monday and Tuesday the high pressure ridge is forecast to
shift back east toward southern New Mexico, although its areal
influence will shrink.  A weakness in the upper air patter may allow
for a low pressure system to form along the Texas Gulf coast. If
this occurs some shower and thunderstorm activity may develop across
southeast Texas. At this point heavy rain does not look likely, and
a good part of Texas will remain very warm and dry.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
Light amounts of MAP are forecast for most of Colorado, for western
and northern New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for southwestern New Mexico.  Lesser amounts are forecast
for most of the western half of Colorado, most of New Mexico, and for
the far western parts of Texas into the Texas panhandle.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the mountains of southern Colorado into northern
and western New Mexico.  Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of
the southwestern half of Colorado, the western two thirds of New
Mexico, and for far western Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for the mountains of southern Colorado into northern and
western New Mexico.  Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the
western two thirds of Colorado, for the western two thirds of New
Mexico, and for the Gulf coast of southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep
Carrollton above action stage criteria levels through the forecast
period.  These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts,
continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past
May and June during heavy rainfall episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria.  The precipitation
forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create
significant issues.  Dry soil conditions continue across most of
Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within
flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas
reservoirs are well below conservation.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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