Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

                     VALID JUNE 1 THROUGH JUNE 6

...COOLER DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The latest forecast models indicate some relief from storms for
several days this coming week. There will still be enough moisture
and instability to allow development of some thunderstorms this
afternoon in the western portions of north Texas.

A high pressure system is now developing over the desert southwest
and will influence the weather over the WGRFC forecast area for
many days.  Another deep closed low is expected to generate off the
west coast developing into a deep closed low several days beyond
our forecast period.  However, the high pressure ridge over our
region will impact the movement of this system and probably push it
to the north of the WGRFC forecast area.

Even though significant rainfall is not forecast for several days,
moderate and major flooding will continue to be in the news for the
next couple of weeks.  See the hydrologic discussion section of
this discussion for more details on each basin affected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions have rapidly improved across all regions of the
WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events since Memorial Day have
brought drought relief throughout the region.  In Texas, only about
3% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
conditions, and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no
longer being observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the
state (western New Mexico) is experiencing moderate or worse
drought conditions (36%), and they also are free from extreme or
exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have
risen rapidly over the past few weeks due to recent heavy rainfall.
Many lakes, especially in the eastern half of Texas, are full and
are releasing water according to regulation rules. Any rainfall
that may fall over the next five days over Texas and New Mexico
will not likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.
Conditions will be monitored closely.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The Nueces River at Tilden (TILT2) has crested from routed water,
but will remain above major flood stage for five days. Three Rivers
(THET2) will continue to rise to near major flood level over the
next couple of days. Inflows will be on the increase into Lake
Corpus Christi. Current releases around 8000 cfs will result in
major flooding at Bluntzer (CBVT2) and moderate flooding at
Calallen (CAAT2) and Mathis (MTBT2). On the Frio River, Tilden
(TIDT2) has crested and will fall below minor flood stage today.
Choke Canyon Reservoir remains well below the conservation pool and
continues to rise only slowly.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Even though the rain has ended, major flooding will continue for
several weeks on the Trinity River. Non-flood control reservoirs
are passing inflows downstream to maintain their lakes at safe
levels. All of the flood control lakes are into their flood pools
and several have reached the top of their flood pools and have
started required releases or spills.

Major flooding continues from Carrolton (CART2) through Dallas
(DALT2) and all the way to Oakmont/Long Lake (LOLT2). The East Fork
of the Trinity River at Crandall (CNLT2) is cresting this morning
above major flood stage; however, Ray Hubbard Reservoir (FRHT2) has
been able to reduce their releases to help the river recover.
Several reports of levee overtopping in the region between Crandall
and Rosser (RSRT2) have been received.

Lake Livingston continues high releases which will keep the
downstream points in flood with Liberty (LBYT2) still in major
flood level.  No reduction is expected for at least several weeks
and a slight increase is possible next week depending on the
arrival time of the major flood in Rosser.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues across the Brazos Basin with
isolated moderate and major flooding occurring.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Cuero (CUET2) continues to fall as the flood wave has passed
through the area. However, a second rise to minor flood is expected
Tuesday.  Downstream at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2),
falling stages are expected but moderate flooding is expected to
continue for at least a few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in minor flood levels.  The Neches
River near Alto (ATOT2) is the only point currently above moderate
levels. Nearly every forecast point within the Neches River system
is above flood stage or forecast to rise above flood stage. Lakes
in the region are all full and are passing their inflows unless
designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen Lake is currently
scheduled to reduce their releases. Updates will be made to these
forecasts as conditions  change.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Many areas within the Sabine Basin are in minor to moderate flood
levels.  Points from Gladewater (GDWT2) and downstream are still
showing slow rises. Below Toledo Bend Reservoir, Bon Weir (BWRT2)
continues to trend downward with the reduction of releases from
Toledo Bend. Deweyville (DWYT2) has crested and is falling.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Recent additional rainfall will cause Boling (BOLT2) to fluctuate
between minor and moderate flood levels as runoff continues to
affect the area but should recover within a few days.  East Bernard
(EBBT2) and Sweeney (SWYT2) also have new rises but not expected to
change river levels dramatically.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
All points have crested and in recession currently. Cypress Creek
at Katy-Hockley Road (KHOT2) crested and is falling.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Lavaca River near Edna (EDNT2) is near crest above minor flood
levels and should begin falling later today.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.
The flood control system in the area is diverting extra flows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue downstream of San Antonio bot on
Cibolo Creek and the San Antonio River. No flooding is expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are having ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated but with rainfall chances diminished over the next
few days, the water will have a chance to move downstream. Soil
conditions will remain very wet through the week.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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