Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021518
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1011 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

                     VALID JULY 2 THROUGH JULY 7

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure centered just west of the WGRFC region,
is expected to shift slightly westward and weaken a bit over the
coming days. As a result, a northwest flow pattern will set
up and allow a few upper level disturbances to impact portions of
Colorado, New Mexico and North Texas over the next several days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed overnight across the
Four Corners area, and currently this activity has moved over
portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Another area of
showers and thunderstorms is impacting northern Mexico. This
activity may move over Deep South Texas over the coming hours,
however the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain over Mexico.
Rainfall amounts are generally less than 0.10 inch per hour.

By late tonight/early tomorrow, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary
situated across Oklahoma. Thereafter, a complex of thunderstorms
is forecast to develop over Oklahoma and continue moving south
across the Red River and North Texas during the early morning
hours. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to become more widespread across southern Colorado and
New Mexico. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are expected
with this activity.

A series of upper level disturbance will continue to bring
additional showers and thunderstorms during the evening and
overnight hours through Sunday...mainly for portions of
Colorado, New Mexico and North Texas. By early next week, a
ridge of high pressure is forecast to expand across the region.
Therefore, shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited
across the region during the latter part of the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern
New Mexico and West Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of North Texas (closer to the Red River),
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of North Texas. Lesser amounts are
forecast for southern Colorado and norther New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.50 inch are
forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from
Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of
moderate flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River.
Trinidad (TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is
at crest just above moderate flood stage. Crockett (CRKT2) will be
rising above action stage, and Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising
slightly and may approach flood stage by the weekend. Lake
Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs outflow for several days,
but an increase is likely next week due to increasing inflows.
For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2)
and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has again reduced releases which will lower the
remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.
Still elevated flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington
(DUPT2) through forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River
basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River
near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville
(DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will be running 12 hours of power
generation each day. This will create fluctuations in stage
downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages
at Deweyville by the weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood
levels. However, flows along the river system will remain
elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream
lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area.
Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS



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