Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 271539
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1038 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...PRECIPITATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TO LOWER
MICHIGAN.  LAST NIGHT A SLOW MOVING STORM IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
PRODUCED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS HAD 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
INDIANA... AND IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WISCONSIN.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH WERE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO EASTERN IOWA.

FARTHER NORTH SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS... WITH AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH IN OR LESS OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN
AND UPPER MICHIGAN.  EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISOURI BUT THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST WEST OF THE NCRFC REGION.

IN THE FORECAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY
IN WESTERN IOWA TO NEBRASKA... WHILE A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NCRFC BOUNDARY.  AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... IOWA...
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE THREE DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST INCLUDES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR MUCH OF IOWA... SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND THE SOUTH HALF
OF WISCONSIN.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE SOURIS RIVER AT WESTHOPE.  THIS
LOCATION HAS BEEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SINCE JUNE 30TH AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

ALL OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE NCRFC AREA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST RAINFALL.  HOWEVER... THAT MAY CHANGE AS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE NCRFC AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHOWS RIVERS ARE AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NCRFC AREA.
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE PARTS OF MINNESOTA... NORTHERN IOWA... AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE FLOWS ARE IN THE 25TH - 75TH
PERCENTILE.

THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
IN THE MIDWEST FALLING IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY... THE QUAD
CITIES AREA... NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN... AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: WES MMZ ALH RHR

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...RHR/ALH...





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