Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 181634
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1034 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017
Overnight light rain moved into southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Precipitation totals by early this morning averaged less
than a tenth inch. Otherwise we have had unseasonalby warm temperatures
for the upper midwest, and no measureable precipitation was reported
within the NCRFC region.
In the forecast... unseasonably warm temperatures continue today.
Patches of light rain in southern Missouri to southern Illinois will
linger early this morning. Otherwise no precipitation is forecast in
our region until a large system approaches from the west overnight
Sunday. So by early Monday morning around a tenth inch or less of
rain is expected across the Dakota and the southwest corner of
Minnesota and the western two thirds of Iowa and Missouri.
Many rivers across the NCRFC region are running above normal
levels for this time of the year. Additionally, snowmelt and ice
movement are causing some rises across the northern portions of
the area. With the significant warm up this weekend, additional
bankfull rises are possible as more snowmelt runoff makes its
way in to the system. However, no significant flooding is expected
through the weekend.
That may change by early next week as the system bringing rain on top
of snowmelt moves through the region. Depending on how much snowmelt
runoff is generated by the warmer temperatures this weekend, some
flooding is possible across parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Some of the flooding could be above minor and moderate levels by
the end of next week when the forecasted rainfall is factored in.
Additionally, ice currently frozen in culverts, ditches and drain
tiles will likely impact the timing and volume of runoff that gets
to the rivers.
The National Spring Hydrologic outlook was released yesterday,
and includes probabilistic flood exceedence information for
forecast points in the NCRFC area. For a link to the NCRFC 2017
Spring Hydrologic Outlook, which contains references to antecedent
and current hydrologic conditions, please refer to:
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
Emergency Call Back List: DCG SAS WES RHR
If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.