Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1151 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

We have 140 active forecast points now in southern Wisconsin,
Illinois, Indiana, and lower Michigan with 9 of them forecast to
rise above major flood levels and 28 above moderate.  A few of them
in northern Indiana could see record crests.

The QPF shows 2 to 3.5 inches falling in the next 72 hours in a
broad stripe from Missouri to lower Michigan.  We are also melting
the remaining snowpack which includes roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow
water equivalent in this area.  To make matters worse, much of the
ground is frozen or partially frozen and many of the rivers
channels are still full of ice.

This is a complicated and potentially dangerous situation in the
southern and eastern parts of the NCRFC service area.

We started 24x7 operations today and will continue in that mode until
further notice.

Ice in some rivers could break-up and cause flooding as well. The
formation of any ice jams will not be very predictable but we know
the risk has increased.  Please see our ice jam potential page for
details:

http://intranet.msr.noaa.gov/msr/portal/content/icejam/ice_jam_
summary.php?nav_page=2

================================

River forecasts routinely incorporate 24 hours of QPF from
April 1 to September 30 and 48 hours from October 1 to March 31.
See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QPF_NcrfcCurrentQpf

...Forecast Activity...
RVF forecasts issued today.  Issue times are in UTC.
Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT.

RVF  Forecast Group description             Issue Time
CAL Little Calumet R Basin             2018-02-19 15:40 UTC
EWS Ern Wisconsin Basins to Lk MI      2018-02-19 15:10 UTC
GND Grand, Muskegon/White Basins, MI   2018-02-19 15:37 UTC
ILO Mainstem Illinois R                2018-02-19 17:27 UTC
KBM Kaskaskia and Big Muddy R Basin    2018-02-19 15:02 UTC
KDF Illinois R tribs abv LaSalle, IL   2018-02-19 16:17 UTC
KSJ Kalamazoo/St Joseph Bsns-MI & IN   2018-02-19 14:41 UTC
M19 Miss. R - L&D 11-Gregory Landing   2018-02-19 16:15 UTC
MEC Meramec R Basin                    2018-02-19 14:59 UTC
MIS Miss. R - L&D 20 to Chester, IL    2018-02-19 16:47 UTC
NLM Northern Lower Michigan rivers     2018-02-19 15:03 UTC
RCK Rock R Basin                       2018-02-19 14:57 UTC
SMS Southeastern Michigan Streams      2018-02-19 16:13 UTC
SMW Saginaw Basin in MI                2018-02-19 15:20 UTC
SSL Illinois R tribs blo LaSalle, IL   2018-02-19 15:43 UTC
TMO NE Missouri Tribs to Miss. R       2018-02-19 15:54 UTC
WIS Wisconsin R Basin                  2018-02-19 15:08 UTC

=====================================================================

Sites with forecasts above major flood level (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
GND JACM4 Jackson - WWTP / Grand R                        14.0   16.1
GND EAGM4 Eagle - 2NNE - Looking Glass R                   7.0   11.5
KDF DAVI3 Davis - Hwy 30 Br - Kankakee R                  10.0   13.1
KDF PYMI3 Plymouth - Yellow R                             13.0   15.4
KDF SLBI3 Shelby - Kankakee R                              9.0   12.9
KDF RZLI3 Rensselaer - WWTP & Iroquois R                  12.0   15.4
KDF FSMI3 Foresman - Iroquois R (Brook 2E)                18.0   24.1
KDF IRQI2 Iroquois - Iroquois R                           18.0   25.6
KDF CHBI2 Chebanse - 5E - Iroquois R                      16.0   20.3

Sites with forecasts above moderate flood level (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
CAL LCMI3 Munster - Little Calumet R                      12.0   16.3
GND HHTM4 Holt - 2E - Sycamore Cr                          8.0    9.4
GND LNSM4 Lansing - No 2 - Grand R                        11.0   14.0
ILO MORI2 Morris - Illinois R                             16.0   21.5
ILO MMOI2 Marseilles - L&D 5 - Illinois R                467.0  471.5
ILO OTWI2 Ottawa - Illinois R                            463.0  468.5
ILO SRDI2 Utica - Starved Rock L&D 6 -Illinois R         450.0  461.0
ILO LSLI2 La Salle - 1S - Illinois R                      20.0   29.0
ILO HNYI2 Henry - Illinois R                              23.0   26.0
ILO PIAI2 Peoria - Boat Yard - Illinois R                 18.0   22.3
ILO PRAI2 Peoria - L&D 7 - Illinois R                    447.0  449.7
ILO HAVI2 Havana - Illinois R                             14.0   19.0
KDF KNXI3 Knox - WWTP - Yellow R                          10.0   12.5
KDF DBRI3 Dunns Bridge - Kankakee R (Wheatfield 5NE)      10.0   12.6
KDF KTSI3 Kouts - 5S - Kankakee R                         11.0   13.8
KDF MOMI2 Momence - Kankakee R                             5.0    8.5
KDF MILI2 Milford - 1W - Sugar Cr                         18.0   23.5
KDF WLMI2 Wilmington - 4NW - Kankakee R                    6.5    8.1
KDF LEMI2 Lemont - 1NW - Des Plaines R                    10.0   11.0
KDF BOLI2 Bollingbrook - E Br Du Page R                   19.5   21.4
KDF NMSW3 New Munster - 2N - Fox R                        11.0   13.5
KSJ EKMI3 Elkhart - Public Works - St Joseph R            24.0   25.0
KSJ SBNI3 South Bend - WWTP - St Joseph R                  5.5    8.0
RCK BROW3 Brodhead - WWTP & Sugar R                        5.0    8.9
RCK JOSI2 Joslin - Rock R                                 12.0   15.1
RCK MLII2 Moline - Rock R                                 12.0   13.9
SMS FSRM4 Sterling Heights - 1E (Frasier 3N)-Clinton R    16.0   17.5
SMS MCLM4 Mt Clemens - 2N - No Br Clinton R               15.0   17.3

Sites with forecasts above flood stage (FS):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
EWS RAYW3 Raymond - Root R Canal                           9.0    9.1
GND ETNM4 Eaton Rapids - Grand R                           6.0    6.9
GND WMSM4 Williamston - 3E - Red Cedar R                   9.0    9.3
GND ELNM4 East Lansing - Red Cedar R                       7.0    9.5
GND PORM4 Portland - WWTP & 1S - Grand R                  12.0   12.4
GND MRPM4 Maple Rapids - Maple R                           9.0   10.0
GND IONM4 Ionia - Grand R                                 21.0   22.9
GND LWLM4 Lowell - Grand R                                15.0   17.4
GND HSTM4 Hastings - 3SE - Thornapple R                    7.0    8.8
GND CLDM4 Caledonia - 2NE - Thornapple R                  10.0   11.1
GND ADAM4 Ada - Grand R                                   20.0   21.7
GND ROCM4 Rockford - 3SW - Rogue R                         8.0    8.1
GND GDRM4 Grand Rapids - Grand R                          18.0   19.8
ILO BEAI2 Beardstown - Illinois R                         14.0   17.2
ILO MROI2 Meredosia - Pwr Plant - Illinois R              17.0   17.4
ILO VALI2 Valley City - Illinois R                        14.0   14.1
ILO HARI2 Hardin - Illinois R                             25.0   25.0
KBM VNDI2 Vandalia - WWTP & Kaskaskia R                   18.0   22.4
KDF RUSI2 Russell - Des Plaines R                          7.0    8.5
KDF GUNI2 Gurnee - 3SW - Des Plaines R                     7.0    7.2
KDF WRNI2 Warrenville - W Br Du Page R                    11.5   11.7
KDF SORI2 Shorewood - Du Page R                            6.5    6.5
KDF AFBI2 Algonquin - Fox R TW                             9.5    9.5
KDF MNGI2 Montgomery - Fox R                              13.0   13.1
KDF DAYI2 Dayton - Fox R                                  12.0   12.6
KSJ CMSM4 Comstock - Kalamazoo R                           9.0    9.7
KSJ RCMM4 New Richmond - Kalamazoo R                      17.0   17.1
KSJ BURM4 Burlington - 3E - St. Joseph R                   6.5    6.7
KSJ VCKM4 Vicksburg - 2E - Portage R                       5.0    6.0
KSJ TRVM4 Three Rivers - WWTP & St Joseph R                7.0    8.9
KSJ MOTM4 Mottville - St Joseph R                          8.0    8.5
KSJ CPEI3 Cosperville - N Br Elkhart R                     6.0    6.7
KSJ GSHI3 Goshen - Elkhart R                               7.0    7.8
KSJ NILM4 Niles - WWTP - St Joseph R                      11.0   12.8
NLM STRM4 Sterling - 3N - Rifle R                          6.0    8.8
RCK CLIW3 Clinton - WWTP-Turtle Cr                         8.0    8.4
RCK BOIW3 Beloit - 1SE - Hwy 51 - Turtle Cr                7.5    8.7
RCK BCHW3 Blanchardville - 2S- E Br Pecatonica R          11.0   11.4
RCK SIRI2 Shirland - Pecatonica R                         12.0   13.4
RCK PRYI2 Perryville - 2SW - Kishwaukee R                 12.0   12.5
RCK BYRI2 Byron - Rock R                                  13.0   13.7
RCK CMOI2 Como - Rock R                                   12.5   12.6
SMS MTCM4 Mt Clemens - 1W - Clinton R                     16.0   16.5
SMS DETM4 Detroit - Rvr Rouge                             15.0   17.5
SMS GACM4 Garden City - 2NE - MI River Rouge              10.0   10.2
SMS INKM4 Inkster - Lwr Rvr Rouge                         10.0   11.5
SMS DEXM4 Dexter - 2S - Mill Cr                           12.0   12.5
SMS BLIM4 Blissfield - 1SW - River Raisin                683.0  684.4
SMS DNDM4 Dundee - WWTP - Rvr Raisin                     650.0  651.5
SMS MONM4 Monroe - WTP - Rvr Raisin                        9.0    9.5
SMW MIDM4 Midland - No 2 - Tittabawassee R                24.0   24.0
SMW OWOM4 Owosso - 2NW - WWTP / Shiawassee R               7.0    8.5
SMW FRGM4 Fergus - 1E - Shiawassee R                      10.0   12.8
SMW DAVM4 Davison - 3W - Kearsley Cr                      10.0   10.9
SMW FLTM4 Flint - 7W - WWTP / Flint R                     13.0   13.5
SMW CSSM4 Cass City - 1SSW - WWTP/Cass R                  14.0   14.2
SMW FRNM4 Frankenmuth - Cass R                            17.0   19.9
SMW SAGM4 Saginaw - No 3 - Saginaw R                      17.0   18.9
SSL MNTI2 Monticello - Sangamon R                         13.0   14.8

Sites with forecasts below flood stage but above a
user-defined threshold (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
CAL THNI2 Thornton - Thorn Cr                             10.0    9.9
CAL SHLI2 South Holland - Little Calumet R                16.5   15.3
EWS FRKW3 Franklin - 2SE - Root R                          8.0    7.3
GND DMDM4 Dimondale - 1WSW & Grand R                      13.0   12.1
GND GDLM4 Grand Ledge - 1NW & Hwy 100 - Grand R           11.0   10.5
GND SMYM4 Smyrna - Flat R                                  8.5    7.1
GND SCTM4 Scottville - Pere Marquette R                    5.5    4.4
GND WHTM4 Whitehall - 7NE - White R                        6.0    5.5
GND EVRM4 Evart - Muskegon R                              12.0   10.4
GND MORM4 Morley - 5E - Little Muskegon R                  6.0    5.0
GND CROM4 Croton - Croton Dam - Muskegon R                 9.0    8.7
ILO NLGI2 La Grange - L&D 8 - Illinois R                  23.0   22.9
KDF NBAI2 Chicago - N Br Chicago River                     7.0    5.6
KDF LDRI2 Lincolnshire - Des Plaines R                    12.5   11.5
KDF DSPI2 Des Plaines - 2N - Des Plaines R                15.0   14.2
KDF RVRI2 Riverside - Des Plaines R                        7.5    7.1
KDF NDRI2 Plainfield - Du Page R                          12.0   11.5
KDF COLI2 Coal City - 4W - Mazon R                        12.0   10.5
KDF BRGW3 Burlington - Fox R                              11.0   10.9
KSJ MARM4 Marshall - Kalamazoo R                           8.0    7.9
KSJ BCRM4 Battle Creek - No 3 - Battle Cr                  4.0    3.5
KSJ BTCM4 Battle Creek - No 2 - Kalamazoo R                9.0    7.3
MEC UNNM7 Union - Bourbeuse R                             15.0   14.9
NLM SHRM4 Sherman - 1N - Manistee R                       15.0   14.5
RCK MTNW3 Martintown - 2E & Pecatonica R                  13.5   11.4
RCK ALBW3 Albany - Sugar R                                12.0   11.6
RCK ROKI2 Rockton - Rock R                                10.0    8.8
RCK LATI2 Latham Park - Rock R                            10.0    9.0
RCK BVDI2 Belvidere - WWTP - Kishwaukee R                  9.0    8.6
RCK DXRI2 Dixon - Rock River                              16.0   15.8
RCK GENI2 Geneseo - 2N - Green R                          15.0   14.5
SMS HMGM4 Hamburg - 1N - Huron R                           6.5    6.4
SMS ANNM4 Ann Arbor - Huron R                             16.0   15.5
SMS TECM4 Tecumseh - WWTP & 4S - Rvr Raisin               13.0   12.4
SMS ADRM4 Adrian - 2E - Rvr Raisin                        18.0   15.5
SMW MPTM4 Mount Pleasant - 3NE - Chippewa R                8.0    7.4
SMW ALMM4 Alma - Pine R                                    8.0    7.2
SMW VSSM4 Vassar - WWTP - Cass R                          14.0   13.9
SSL LNMI2 London Mills - 1WSW - Spoon R                   15.0   14.0
TMO DRCM7 St Peters - Dardenne Creek                      18.0   17.0
WIS PORW3 Portage - 1SE - WWTP / Wisconsin R              17.0   12.9

=====================================================================

...Past Precipitation...
Observation times are in UTC.
Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT.
=====================================================================

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Iowa:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
DNNI4    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.28 : Donnellson                          IA
IADM07   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.23 : Burlington 6SSW                     IA
AGSI4    DH1200/PPDRG  0.19 : Augusta                             IA
WTPI4    DH1200/PPDRP  0.19 : West Point 4NNE                     IA
EOKI4    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.19 : Keokuk L&D 19                       IA

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Illinois:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
QLDI2    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.72 : Quincy L&D 21                       IL
ILPT01   DH1400/PPDRZ  0.71 : Monticello 4NNE                     IL
RSHI2    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.70 : Rushville 4NE                       IL
ILCP81   DH1400/PPDRZ  0.64 : Dewey 2NNW                          IL
QLDI2    DH1200/PPDRG  0.55 : Quincy L&D 21                       IL

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Indiana:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
INJS31   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.45 : De Motte 6S                         IN
MORI3    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.43 : Morocco 1 NW                        IN
INJS37   DH1200/PPDRZ  0.34 : De Motte 1NNW                       IN
INJS45   DH1400/PPDRZ  0.33 : De Motte 1SSW                       IN
RZZI3    DH1330/PPDRZ  0.32 : Rensselaer                          IN

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Michigan:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
MICP14   DH1100/PPDRZ  0.50 : Sault Ste. Marie 2E                 MI
P59      DH1151/PPDRZ  0.30 : Copper Harbor Arpt                  MI
MIHG06   DH1200/PPDRZ  0.22 : Calumet 6ENE                        MI
MIHG01   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.21 : Houghton 2ESE                       MI
QNCM4    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.21 : Hancock 1N                          MI

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Minnesota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
MNLK09   DH1300/PPDRZ  1.39 : Silver Bay 12NE                     MN
MLCM5    DH1330/PPDRZ  1.00 : Milaca                              MN
MNCK03   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.71 : Tofte 5NE                           MN
WLFM5    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.70 : Wolf Ridge Elc                      MN
MNCK07   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.66 : Hovland                             MN

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Missouri:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
FMDM7    DH1400/PPDRZ  0.67 : Lake St Louis 2SW                   MO
OFLM7    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.55 : O`Fallon 2SSW                       MO
PALM7    DH1200/PPDRG  0.50 : Palmyra 2NW                         MO
MOMA05   DH1400/PPDRZ  0.43 : Palmyra 4NNW                        MO
PCZM7    DH1200/PPDRG  0.41 : Paris                               MO

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from North Dakota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
NDGF14   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.14 : Grand Forks 3SSE                    ND
GFK      DH1153/PPDRZ  0.10 : Grand Forks 4W - Intl Aprt          ND
LFDN8    DH1100/PPDRZ  0.10 : Lansford                            ND
GRFN8    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.10 : Grand Forks - Nws / U Of North Dako ND
NDST03   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.07 : Hope 5WNW                           ND

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from South Dakota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
SDRB14   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.06 : Sisseton                            SD
MLBS2    DH1330/PPDRZ  0.03 : Milbank WWTP                        SD
SIWS2    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.02 : Sisseton 4W                         SD
SDRB01   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.02 : Sisseton 4W                         SD

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Wisconsin:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
ARLW3    DH1400/PPDRZ  0.56 : Arlington - University Farm         WI
WIAS04   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.40 : Ashland                             WI
AWXW3    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.40 : Ashland                             WI
BYFW3    DH1100/PPDRZ  0.36 : Bayfield 9N                         WI
WIBY01   DH1100/PPDRZ  0.36 : Bayfield 9N                         WI

=====================================================================

See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QCPCPN for all reports.


For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


$$






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