Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 241429
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

AT 12Z A 1008 MB LOW WAS JUST E OF THE NT1 WATERS W/ITS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WATERS. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE NT2 WATERS. W/06Z GFS/NAM IN FAIR AGREEMENT
W/THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE...WILL NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS IN PLACE FOR THIS INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS PRESENT NO MAJOR FCST
PROBLEMS. THE MDLS REMAIN IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE COLD
FRONT NOW PUSHING SE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS WL BCM STNRY ACRS THE NRN
NT2 WTRS LATER TODAY...THEN DSIPT TONITE WITH ASCD GRADIENTS
REMAINING WEAK. THEN WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z
MDLS FCST ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO APRCH FROM THE NW MON...THEN
PUSH OFSHR INTO THE NT1 WTRS MON NITE WITH A MOD STRONG (GNRLY UP
TO 20-25 KT) SWLY PREFRONTAL GRADIENT DVLPG ACRS THE NT1 AND
NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS. THEREFORE...SMLR TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST
PACKAGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE
REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY THRU MON NITE...WITH
SM ADDITIONAL MINOR EDITS MAINLY ACRS THE NT2 WTRS IN DEFERENCE TO
THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF. SO AS A RESULT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY
MAJOR SHORT TERM CHNGS IN THE NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS CONT TO FCST A QUIET
NON-DESCRIPT SUMMER-TIME PATTERN TO DVLP. WITH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO CONT TO
PASS SLOWLY SE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TUE AND INTO THE NRN NT2 WTRS TUE
NITE. THEN WITH MINOR LOCATION DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z MDLS FCST THE
FRONT TO REMAIN QSTNRY ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED THRU THU
NITE WITH PRHPS A WEAK SFC LOW(S?) RIPPLING NE ALONG THE FRONT.
WITH THE 00Z MDL CONSENSUS FCSTG WEAK ASCD GRADIENTS (GNRLY IN THE
10-20 KT RANGE...OR LESS) WITH THIS FRONT...THE ONLY SIG FCST
CHALLENGE WL BE DETERMINING WIND DIRECTIONS MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE PLAN ON CONTG TO POPULATE WITH THE WELL
SUPPORTED 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS ON TUE THRU THU NITE...WITH AGAIN
SM MINOR ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF.

.SEAS...OVERALL THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS HV
BOTH INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS WELL (GNRLY WITHIN ONE FT VS
THE LATEST SFC OBS). WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING FAVORED...PLAN ON
POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH ALL 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR
TODAY THRU THU NITE...WHICH OVERALL ARE VERY SMLR TO THE 00Z ECMWF
WAM FCST SEAS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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