Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 201918
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

CRNT GOES VIS IMGRY INDC A WK LOW ALNG A FRNTL BNDRY ACRS THE
NRN NT2 OFSHR WTRS...AND A PREFRNTL TROF OVR THE FAR SE NT2 WTRS.
THE LGTNG DATA INDC TSTMS ALNG THE TROF...AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS
NR THE LOW CTR...MAINLY OVR THE GLF STRM. THE PREV FCST HAD
MENTION OF TSTMS...SO WL CONT IN THE NEXT PKG. OTRW 13Z ASCAT
DATA INDC WNDS UP TO 20 KT OVR THE OFSHR WTRS WITH A SMALL AREA OF
25 KT OVR SRN NT2 AHD OF THE CDFNT. 12Z GFS 30M WNDS ARE INIT WELL
WHEN COMPARED WITH THE DATA...ESP INVOF THE GLFSTRM. THE 12Z ECWMF
WNDS WERE A TAD LGT...IN THE UNSTABLE ENVRMT...SO PREFERRING THE
STGR GFS WNDS ATTM.

THE 12Z MDLS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM INTO SAT. ALL
INDC THE CRNT LOW OVR NRN NT2 WL MOV SLOWLY OFF TO THE E...AND
AGREE WELL ON THE TMG OF THE FNT DRIFTING TO THE S THRU THE
CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH WNDS WKNG TO 20 KT OR LESS TNGT.
THE FRNT CONT OVER THE RGN INTO SUN...AND THE BIGGEST FCST PRBLM
IS WITH A SEVL FRNTL WAVES THAT DVLP OFF THE NC COAST SAT INTO
SUN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST W WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
LOWS...AND HAD BEEN THE STGR AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E.
HOWEVER...THE WAVES SEEM TO BE WEAK WHILE OVR THE OFSHR WTRS...AND
MDLS DO NOT AGREE EXTREMEMLY WELL WITH THE DVLPMT. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORMS MULTIPLE CTRS...AND SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE NUMBER OF
LOW CTRS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TWD THE ECMWF...AND SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT CMPRMS. ATTM PLANNING ON MAINLY USING 30M BL WNDS FROM THE
12Z GFS OVR THE GLF STRM AND SE...10M BL WNDS TO THE NW OF IT IN
THE MORE STABLE FLOW...AND WL USE A 10 PERCENT BLEND WITH THE
ECWMF SFC WNDS TO ACCT FOR SLIGHT DIFFS.

SEAS...THE 12Z NWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE BOTH INITIALIZED WELL. MDLS
ARE WITHIN A FT OR SO OF EACH OTHER THRUT THE FCST PD...SO WL OPT
TO USE MAINLY NWW3 WITH 10 PERCENT BLEND OF ECWMF WAM TO REFLECT
WX MDL PREFERENCES.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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