Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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415
AGPN40 KWNM 270212
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
712 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST.

SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS IS MISSING THE AREA OF
EXPECTED HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WA/OR WATERS...ALTHOUGH
ONLY EXPECTING 20-25 KT. THE CANADIAN FCST OFFICE IS MAINTINAING A
GALE WARNING IN VCNTY OF VANISL.

THE OVERALL FCST PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DURING THE UPCOMING
7 DAY PERIOD AND NOT MANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SET OF
GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. THE PERSISTANT N-NW FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN PRODUCING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WA/OR AND NRN CA WATERS OVER
THE PAST SEVEAL DAYS...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AS HIGH PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED W OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DRIFT W CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
MOVE TO NEAR VANISL ON DAYS 2-4 WHILE PULLING A WEAK FRONTAL
BNDRY ACROSS THE WATERS. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERG SOMEWHAT AS
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW CENTER SE INTO THE WA WATERS. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE LOW CENTER N OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. FURTHER S...ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CA CST...THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE REGION. BEGINNING ON DAY 3...THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF THE WATERS AND A LOW PRES
TROUGH INTENSIFYING ALONG THE SRN CA CST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 KT...ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND POP THE WIND GRIDS USING THE GFS THROUGH
00Z WED...THEN TRANSITION TO THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM INITIALZIED WELL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14Z THIS MORNING SHOWS SEAS TO 10
FT JUST W OF THE WA/OR AND NRN CA WATERS. AT 20Z BUOY 46005 AND
46002 ARE RPT 9 FT. WILL POP WAVE GRIDS WITH MODEL TO MATCH WIND
GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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