Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 302249 CCA
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
216 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

FROM THE 18Z NCEP FINAL ANAL WK LOW PRES IS PASSING N OF WTRS E OF
QUEEN CHARLOTTES WHILE A HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM OUTER PZ5 WTRS
SWD AND AN INVERTED CSTL TROF PERSISTS ALG SRN OREGON CST SWD.
1853Z ASCAT-A PASS RETURNED N WNDS 20 TO 25 KT FM FAR SE OREGON
OFSHR WTRS AND ADJ CSTL WTRS THRU NRN CA AND OUTER CENTRAL CA WTRS
BUT MISSES RMNDR CENTRL CA AND OUTER SRN CA WTRS. RMNDR SRN CA
WTRS AND PZ5 AREA SHOW LIGHT WINDS. THE 12Z GFS 10M WNDS LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE.

COASTAL TROF NOTED ABV WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN LATE SAT AND SAT NITE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FM THE W WILL PASS E ACROSS THE PZ5 AND NRN PZ6 WTRS SAT NITE AND
SUN. A WEAK LOW PRES CNTR WILL PASS JUST N OF THE PZ5 AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WHILE PULLING A WK CDFNT E ACROSS THE WA/ORE
WTRS...WITH FNT STALLING ACRS FAR N CA WTRS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. THEN AS STG LOW PRES MOVS INTO THE E PAC FM THE SW TUE AND
TUE NIGHT AND APCHS THE OFSHR WTRS LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FNT WILL RETURN N AS WARM FNT. OTHW...HI PRES
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS THRU TUE NIGHT.

MODELS...12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING INCRG TIMING DIFFS WITH
THE DVLPG LOW COMING FM THE SW MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE
12Z ECMWF ALONE EJECTING A SHRTWV OVER THE UPR RDG TO THE E TUE
NIGHT AND WED TAKING A LOW WITH NEAR GALE WNDS THRU PZ5
WTRS...WHICH IS DISCOUNTED. FOR THE FCST POPULATED WITH 12Z GFS
10M WNDS THRU TUE NIGHT EXCP FOR PERIOD FM SUN NIGHT TO MON NIGHT
USED 50/50 BLENDS OF GFS WITH 12Z ECMWF TO SMOOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES
ESPCLY OVER NRN WTRS...WITH GFS OTRW NR MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE HNDLG
THE LOW FM THE SW. OTHER MDLS TIL TUE NIGHT OTRW CLOSE TO GFS IN
OFSHR WTRS. FOR THE LAST TWO PERIODS...THRU WED NIGHT...POPULATED
WITH OLD 00Z ECMWF USED PREVIOUSLY WHICH IS BASED ON COMPROMISE
AMONG A LARGE SPREAD OF MDT TO STG LOWS PASSING W OF OFSHR WTRS.
THIS SOLN IS CLOSE TOP NEW WPC MED RDNG GUIDANCE. THIS WL RESULT
IN INCRG SLY WNDS OVR MANY OF ZONES EXCP SRN CA INNER WTRS BUT
REMAINING SUBGALE FOR NOW. HAVE TOO LOW A CONFDC TO PUT UP GALES
IN DAY 5 AT THIS TIME.

.SEAS...CORRECTED. CURRENT SEA HTS OVER THE OFSHR WTRS ARE 11 FT
OR LESS. BOTH THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECWMF WAM
INITIALIZED WELL VERSUS THE BUOY OBS. THESE MDLS ARE IN GUD
OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU TUE NIGHT. USED 12Z
ECMWF WAM WITH ITS SLGTLY BETTER MATCH WITH 18Z SEA STATE ANAL
INTO SAT AND THEN WITH MINOR DIFFS NOTED AT VARIOUS TIMES USED
50/50 BLEND OF 12Z WAVE MDLS LATER SAT THRU MON NIGHT. FOR RMNDR
OF FCST USED 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 EXCP BYND 12Z TUE PER SFC MDL
BLEND PREFERENCE NOTED ABV USED 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND 00Z
ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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