Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 182003
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
103 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE N CA
OFFSHORE WATERS. A STRONG LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
AK...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SE TO NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND
1740Z WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND S CA WATERS
INDICATED WINDS INT HE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH MDL FCST FIELDS.

THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY ABOUT 12Z TUE AND
CONTINUING BEYOND. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LOW PRES
OVER THE N CA WATERS WILL MOVE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SE
AND MOVE INTO THE WA/OR WATERS LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES PASSES W OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON THOUGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUE...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG
LOW PRES WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE WA/OR/N CA WATERS. THE GFS
IS THE FURTHEST E WITH THE LOW...AND BRINGS GALES INTO THE OREGON
WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET ARE ALL FURTHER NW WITH THE
LOW AND THUS KEEP THE GALES JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL GO
CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS HERE AND FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR TUE AND
BEYOND. IN SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE GRIDS USING THE 12Z GFS 10M
WINDS THROUGH 09Z TUE...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ECMWF FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES. WILL POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS USING THE MMW3 THROUGH 09Z TUE...THEN SINCE WILL BE
USING THE ECMWF WINDS WILL USE THE ECMWF WAM WAVE VALUES 12Z TUE
AND BEYOND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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