Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 242008
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

VALID 00Z SAT MAR 25 2017 - 00Z MON MAR 27 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT,
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...HIGH WINDS WILL COUPLE WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRAS, AND SOUTHERN CASCADES
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A STRONG COLD
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD NEARING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PROTRUDES EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A DEEP FLOW OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT. THESE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, SPECIFICALLY THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ASCENT, ALLOWING THIS WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO RISE
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND INTERACT WITH COLDER AIR.

RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SMALL
REGION THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EAST TX AND THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION AS
BEING IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. BY TOMORROW,
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WWW.SPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

BEHIND THE THIS COLD FRONT, STRONG WINDS ARE COUPLING WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE COLDER AIR MIXING IN
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TO PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST.

FINALLY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT RAIN
TO PERSIST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON,
AND EASTERN NEVADA. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
END OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE WORKWEEK.

WIX

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$




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