Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS02 KWNS 220622
SPC AC 220621
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms are possible early in the period across the
Middle Atlantic while isolated storms may develop from from
California into the Four Corners region.
Center of pronounced upper low is expected to lift northeast across
NC into VA before migrating into the Delmarva by the end of the
period. Low-level warm advection will focus well north of this
feature across the northern Middle Atlantic from PA into southern
New England as much drier/more stable air surges east across the
Carolinas early in the day2. As the effective front surges off the
Carolina coast weak buoyancy should linger immediately ahead of the
upper low where ascent/moistening should prove adequate for isolated
thunderstorms given the steep mid-level lapse rates.
...CA to the Four Corners Region...
120kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate inland across the
northern Baja peninsula into northern Mexico as mid-level heights
are suppressed north of the international border. This lowering of
heights is expected to allow a corridor of steep lapse rates to
extend from CA into the Four Corners region such that scattered
convection, and isolated thunderstorms, is possible. Majority of
deeper updrafts should be focused over the higher terrain.