Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

...SE KS/NE OK/SW MO/NW AR...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
LOCATED OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ESEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN KS...NE OK AND INTO THE OZARKS.
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ON THE NRN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO.
THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
REDEVELOP IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND
GFS AT 21Z FOR INDEPENDENCE KS AND JOPLIN MO SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM AGL.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT DUE TO
DIRECTIONAL TURING BELOW 700 MB AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH SFC-BASED STORMS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

..BROYLES.. 09/16/2014




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