Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
000
ACUS02 KWNS 241650
SWODY2
SPC AC 241650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...OR A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH JET STREAK
SITUATED FROM NRN CA INTO ERN OREGON BY MIDDAY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON.

TO THE E...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO LAKE ONTARIO/NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
ALOFT AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
ALONG A COLD FRONT DESPITE MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.

...NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...
A LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR WHEN
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY EXIST BOTH
OVER THE WATER AND INLAND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DUE TO
TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.