071
FXUS65 KABQ 191728 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Above average warmth will combine with dry conditions and elevated
winds today and Monday. A cold front will bring a modest cooldown
areawide on Tuesday alongside breezy to windy west winds. Dry and
breezy conditions will persist through Saturday with above average
temperatures in the east, while near to below average temperatures
prevail across the central mountains and westward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

A few showers persist across north central and northeast NM this
morning on the nose of a 90kt upper level jet. A dry slot associated
with the jet will spread from west to east today which should keep
precipitation chances at bay for this afternoon and evening. Rather,
dry and breezy to windy conditions will return. The strongest winds
are expected across eastern NM where gusts near 35 mph will be
possible. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of yesterday`s
readings, though Roswell should break the century mark today which
would be the first time this year. With drier air in place,
temperatures tonight should be a few degrees cooler than this
morning`s low temps.

On Monday, a Pacific trough will quickly shift eastward across AZ
before it gets kicked eastward by a northern stream trough Monday
night. With the trough on approach Monday, H7 winds will increase
across western NM to between 35 and 50kt. In general, strong mixing
will be in place, however, a batch of mid level moisture will push
into western NM by late afternoon and the resultant cloud cover may
temper the mixing slightly. Nonetheless, widespread windy conditions
are expected Monday afternoon across western NM. Areas around
Gallup, the Chuska Mountains and surrounding areas may see gusts top
50 mph. A Pacific cold front will also begin to push into western NM
by late afternoon. Virga showers and/or sprinkles along the frontal
boundary may enhance any gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

A messy pattern kicks off the long term for Monday night into
Tuesday as a gaggle of low pressure systems swirl about the northern
CONUS and CAN. While the majority of the system`s precip will favor
CO, isolated showers will dip into the northern mts Monday night
into Tuesday morning. A 100 kt 300 mb jet max drapes itself across
the state, bringing a reprise to amplified winds Tuesday afternoon.
The lowered heights will offer some relief to the previous weekend`s
heat, and a weak front will pass into NM, bringing temperatures
across the central mts and westward below normal. The relaxing
pressure gradient aloft will allow for sfc winds to slacken
Wednesday afternoon and while temperatures will rebound slightly,
they`ll still be below normal for most locales. More widespread
breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Thursday as the
complex of lows well to our north tighten the pressure gradient
aloft and flow subsequently strengthens. Similar conditions will
prevail through Saturday, with persisting dry air. Below normal
temperatures will favor the central mts and westward, while above
averages readings are expected for the eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with
increasing west-southwest flow throughout the column. Gusts to
between 25-35kts will be common this afternoon and early evening.
Even stronger winds are forecast to materialize after the end of
the TAF period on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Hot, dry and windy conditions will be the rule for much of this week
as we begin a fire growth pattern today. Several lightning strikes
were noted last evening across portions of north central NM with
little rainfall. These areas will need to be mentored over the
next few days as winds increase and humidity values plummet. Much
drier air will filter into the area today and winds will increase
for eastern NM. However, this area saw rainfall recently which
should mitigate the critical fire weather threat. On Monday, winds
will be similar across eastern NM but winds will increase across
western NM significantly. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
for western NM and the Middle Rio Grande Valley, though the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains have been added to the watch. The southern
portion of this zone should see single digit humidity values and
strong winds and did not receive much rainfall recently. A cold
front will push through the area late Monday and Monday night, but
temperatures Tuesday will near normal except for northwest NM
where temperatures may be up to 10 degrees below normal. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected again on Tuesday, though the
strongest winds will be across eastern NM. With single digit RH or
near single digit RH expected today and Monday, fuels should dry
out across the east, but there may be enough green up to mitigate
critical concerns and future shifts will continue to monitor this.
Less wind is expected for Wednesday, but winds will ramp back up
again on Thurs/Fri with more critical fire weather conditions
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  45  82  45 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  76  38  75  35 /   0   0   5  20
Cuba............................  76  42  75  39 /   0   0  10  10
Gallup..........................  80  39  76  36 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  76  41  73  38 /   0   0  10   5
Grants..........................  80  38  77  38 /   0   0  10   5
Quemado.........................  79  41  78  39 /   0   0   5   5
Magdalena.......................  82  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  79  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  38  81  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  70  36  69  33 /   0   0  10  30
Los Alamos......................  75  51  74  46 /   0   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  77  45  76  43 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  70  42  71  38 /   0   0   5  30
Red River.......................  66  36  67  32 /   0   0   5  30
Angel Fire......................  69  33  69  32 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  77  38  76  37 /   0   0   5  20
Mora............................  74  42  74  40 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  83  47  82  46 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  80  48  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  83  46  80  45 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  54  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  88  50  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  86  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  87  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  51  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  87  50  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  85  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  91  54  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  48  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  80  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  41  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  79  45  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  82  46  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  87  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  81  53  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  80  45  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  83  43  83  45 /   0   0   0   5
Springer........................  83  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  79  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  87  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  82  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  91  53  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  54  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  97  56  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  94  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 101  59 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  90  56  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  88  55  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-106-109-124.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11