873
FXUS65 KABQ 151738 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rain chances increase across the western two-thirds of the state
today as moisture interacts with an approaching storm system.
Storm coverage and intensity increases for Monday and Tuesday when
strong to severe storms are possible. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main severe concern, but large hail is also possible. Locally
heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding, particularly over
recent burn scars and in northwestern New Mexico. Strong to severe
storms are possible in far eastern New Mexico Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Per satellite imagery, what is left of TS Ileana is very unorganized
with little convection. Nonetheless, mid and upper level moisture
from TS Ileana will shift northward into NM today allowing PWATs to
rise from 0.6" this morning, to near 0.8" early this evening. PWATs
may continue to rise close to 1" Monday. Showers and thunderstorms
will first develop across western NM late this morning and early
afternoon as a subtropical jet noses into western NM. Storms will
expand through the afternoon and early evening hours across much of
the area. With a dry sub-cloud layer, it`s likely that storms will
have gusty and erratic winds, potentially over 50 mph. This will
wane as dewpoints slowly rise this evening. Storms should also
decrease late this evening and overnight as daytime heating is lost,
but showers and thunderstorms will not diminish completely. In fact,
coverage may decrease between sunset and midnight, but may ramp back
up across western NM after midnight as the nose of another jet
reaches the Four Corners region. The cloud cover and precipitation
should keep low temperatures up to 10 degrees warmer than average
for this time of year.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday across northwest
NM. Mid level southwesterly flow will be increasing across northwest
NM as well as the H5 low over CA tracks eastward over the Great
Basin. Storms across northwest NM will likely drag this momentum
down to the surface with any precipitation that develops. Thus, a
round of strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts are expected across
northwest NM. Modest instability, 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear and
the increased lift may also yield a few storms capable of small
hail. Though the intensity of storms will diminish in the evening,
showers and storms will continue across portions of central and
western NM through Monday night.

Fast storm motions, particularly Monday, should mitigate the flash
flooding concerns, but 90th percentile PWATs will mean these will be
efficient rain producing storms. Training storms will pose the
greatest concern for flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

In the presence of large scale lift, showers and even a few storms
will continue through Monday night, eventually increasing in
coverage early Tuesday afternoon with the addition of daytime
heating. The slug of remnant tropical moisture will quickly get
pushed eastward across the state Tuesday as the upper-level trough
approaches from the west. Storms will focus along a cold front that
will provide a stark transition between a moist atmosphere to the
east and a seasonably dry and cool atmosphere to the west.
Strengthening 500mb flow will increase shear, continuing the threat
of severe storms along and east of the central mtn chain Tuesday
afternoon. Heavy rainfall rates associated with storms will pose a
flash flood threat, but storm motion will be so fast (25-35mph), so
any heavy rainfall will be brief. Tuesday looks to be more unstable
than both Sunday and Monday as dry air in the mid-level advects over
the moist boundary layer so both large hail and damaging winds are
possible east of the central mountain. Once again, the wind threat
will dominate since strong winds will easily transfer down to the
surface. In addition, the base of the main trough will swing through
Tuesday afternoon, creating widespread breezy conditions with windy
conditions in the typical locations east of the central mountain
chain.

With southwest flow in place Tuesday night, the dryline will try to
make a push eastward, but models have backed off bringing it back
into New Mexico in time for Wednesday afternoon`s storms. As the
trough deepens over The Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday, the more
southerly component to the winds will help to draw Gulf moisture
westward overnight. Strong to severe afternoon storms are possible
in the eastern row of counties each afternoon Wednesday through
Friday as a result. The aformentioned trough is forecast to open and
lift as it moves towards the Rockies, sending another cold front
through the region on Friday. Ensembles have minor discrepancies
with regard to the timing and depth of this feature, but the overall
agreement is pretty good. Its interaction with Gulf moisture will
likely create more widespread storms Saturday as it moves through.
Temps will cool a few more degrees for the weekend, with high temps
ranging from near to several degrees below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Moisture is increasing into New Mexico while a deep west coast
low pressure system is ushering stronger winds aloft into the
state. This will lead to developing and expanding showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight with more redeveloping on
Monday. Western areas of the state will see the highest
concentration of showers/storms, but central and even portions of
eastern New Mexico could also observe isolated or scattered
activity this afternoon and early this evening. Small hail,
lightning, and brief downpours will be possible, but gusty
downburst winds will likely pose the biggest aviation weather
hazard with abrupt and erratic gusts to 40 to 50 kt possible from
any passing showers or storms. Into Monday, showers and storms
will favor western and north central areas of New Mexico with
prevailing breezes also increasing (gusts of 20 to 30 kt being
more common).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through Tuesday as subtropical moisture shifts northward into NM and
an upper level low tracks over the Great Basin. Storms will have the
potential for gusty and erratic winds each day, while small hail
will be possible across northwest NM Monday. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible, but fast storm motions should help mitigate the
flooding threat. Severe weather, including damaging wind gusts and
hail, will also be possible Tuesday through Friday across eastern NM
along and east of the dryline. Elsewhere, quieter weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday, though a few breezes are likely.
Cooler conditions are possible this upcoming weekend as a cold front
arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  58  79  56 /  20  60  80  40
Dulce...........................  83  46  73  46 /  20  50  80  70
Cuba............................  81  51  76  50 /  40  50  80  50
Gallup..........................  83  54  77  49 /  30  50  70  20
El Morro........................  77  53  76  50 /  50  60  70  20
Grants..........................  81  51  79  49 /  60  50  70  20
Quemado.........................  77  51  78  52 /  60  50  50  30
Magdalena.......................  80  56  79  55 /  60  30  50  30
Datil...........................  78  51  77  50 /  60  30  60  20
Reserve.........................  84  50  82  52 /  30  40  50  30
Glenwood........................  87  58  83  60 /  30  30  50  30
Chama...........................  76  45  67  45 /  30  40  80  70
Los Alamos......................  80  55  75  55 /  30  40  70  50
Pecos...........................  81  52  75  52 /  40  40  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  78  49  72  49 /  20  20  70  40
Red River.......................  68  44  64  44 /  20  20  70  40
Angel Fire......................  73  39  69  41 /  30  30  70  30
Taos............................  82  48  76  48 /  20  20  60  40
Mora............................  78  47  74  47 /  40  30  70  40
Espanola........................  88  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  50
Santa Fe........................  82  56  77  56 /  30  40  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  86  55  82  55 /  30  40  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  60  85  62 /  30  40  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  61  86  60 /  30  40  50  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  58  87  59 /  30  40  50  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  60  85  60 /  20  40  50  40
Belen...........................  89  58  87  58 /  30  30  40  30
Bernalillo......................  90  59  87  59 /  20  40  50  50
Bosque Farms....................  88  55  87  56 /  30  40  50  40
Corrales........................  90  58  87  60 /  20  40  50  40
Los Lunas.......................  88  56  87  58 /  30  40  40  40
Placitas........................  86  57  84  58 /  20  40  60  50
Rio Rancho......................  88  60  86  60 /  20  40  50  50
Socorro.........................  90  61  90  61 /  40  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  54  78  53 /  30  40  60  50
Tijeras.........................  83  56  81  55 /  40  40  60  50
Edgewood........................  82  53  82  50 /  40  40  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  48  83  49 /  40  40  50  40
Clines Corners..................  80  51  78  51 /  40  40  50  40
Mountainair.....................  83  54  81  53 /  40  30  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  83  53  81  54 /  40  30  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  86  59 /  20  20  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  78  53  79  55 /  30  20  30  30
Capulin.........................  84  52  79  53 /  20  20  30  10
Raton...........................  87  49  81  52 /  20  20  40  20
Springer........................  87  51  82  54 /  20  20  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  50  78  51 /  30  30  50  40
Clayton.........................  90  59  87  61 /  10  20  10  10
Roy.............................  85  56  81  56 /  20  20  30  30
Conchas.........................  92  59  89  60 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  87  59  85  59 /  20  30  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  91  60  90  61 /  20  20  10  30
Clovis..........................  92  62  91  63 /   5   5   5  10
Portales........................  92  62  92  63 /   5   5   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  91  61  89  61 /  10  10  10  20
Roswell.........................  96  64  94  68 /   5   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  88  59  87  59 /  10  10  20  20
Elk.............................  86  55  86  56 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52