Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 172045 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 345 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reside over the region this evening then shift east of the area later tonight. A strong low pressure system will track west and north of the area this weekend bringing rain for Saturday and Saturday night followed by gusty and colder conditions with lake effect snow by late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure centered over the region late this afternoon will shift east overnight as low pressure moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Skies will be mainly clear through mid/late evening with just high clouds allowing temperatures to fall initially. Later tonight clouds will increase with reading expected to be non- diurnal especially west of I81. Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s across the western Catskills and western Mohawk Valley with readings in the mid to upper 20s elsewhere except around freezing in the Wyoming Valley. Saturday...A deepening low pressure system will slowly lift northeast into the central Great Lakes region. Initial short wave and isentropic lift will spread light rain across the area during the mid morning to midday period from west to east. The precipitation on the front edge could be a mix of rain/snow even though temperatures aloft are warm, evaporative cooling could bring a brief mix. If this does occur any accumulations would be only a dusting to a couple of tenths as the precipitation quickly changes to rain. High will range in the lower to middle 40s. Saturday Night...Low pressure will lift northeast along the New York/Canadian border as it continues to intensify. The GFS/Canadian continue to show a much stronger system than the NAM and also less progressive. Leaned toward the deeper slower solution which brings cold air into the area mainly after 12Z Sunday. Jet dynamics and frontal lift will keep widespread rain over the area for much of the overnight period then the activity becomes more showery as the cold front crosses between 06Z- 12Z. Toward daybreak the rain will begin mixing with snow with light accumulations possible over northern Oneida and Steuben Counties. Temperatures are expected to hold steady or even rise slightly during the evening hours then fall rapidly after frontal passage. By daybreak temperatures will range in the middle 30s to around 40. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main concerns in the short term remain focused around the strengthening low pressure system moving newd through the ern Great Lakes with strong nw winds and accumulating lake effect snow Sunday into Monday morning. By Sunday morning the surface low is expected to be moving into nrn NY with the wedge of warm air still situated over central NY and ne PA ahead of the first surface cold front, which will be rapidly moving to the e/ne. As this occurs, lingering rain showers will quickly change over to snow. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of snow by the afternoon. Temperatures will be falling from the lower 40s in the morning, into the mid 30s by the afternoon. The initial cold front will be associated with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. Steep low level lapse rates will make conditions very favorable for strong mixing in a deepening boundary layer. Northwest winds 40 to 50 kt at the top of the mixed layer will be capable of mixing down to the surface with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph, and gusts 35 to 50 mph not out of the question. The strongest winds are expected to be late morning and early afternoon Sunday. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed during this time. The second impact from this system will be the development of lake effect snow across central NY Sunday afternoon...continuing into Monday morning. Conditions will become favorable for LES after 5 pm Sunday as boundary layer winds become unidirectional out of the nw and the cold air really begins to pour in...850mb temps around -10 to -12 deg C. A 300 deg flow and at least a minor lake to lake connection, should allow a single LES band to set up Sunday evening and impact an area from around Auburn to Tully over to Utica, north...including the Syracuse metro area and I-90 corridor. Most favorable time should be during the late Sunday evening through the early morning Monday timeframe. During this period, snowfall rates may approach 1 to 2 inches per hour for brief times. Snow will accumulate quickly and cause potentially hazardous travel conditions Monday morning. Winds will slowly back to the west and sw into Monday afternoon and allow the lake band to shift north of the Thruway. As this occurs, slightly warmer air will begin to move in from the west and will start to erode the lake effect snow processes and lower the inversion heights. Snowfall rates will also diminish into the afternoon, and eventually lift completely to the north out of the area by the evening. Cloud cover will mix out from south to north Monday night with quiet weather and cool temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong push of warm air from the sw is expected Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Most of the day should be quiet before cloud cover increases later in the day and the next clipper system begins to push in late Tuesday night and during the day Wednesday with snow showers at night and a mix of snow and rain during the day. There is some uncertainty with the pattern later in the week with some of the guidance hinting at weak ridging behind the departing clipper, and other keeping the strong/cold cyclonic flow going into the weekend with nw winds and likely persistent light snow showers...mainly across the central NY counties. Temperatures will begin a slow decline from the 40s into the lower to mid 30s for day time highs...and 20s and lower 30s overnight. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over the region will keep VFR conditions over the terminals through tonight. This afternoon through early evening just high clouds are expected with increasing mid level clouds primarily after 06Z. On Saturday, low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes will bring light rain to the terminals beginning mid to late morning. Conditions through 18Z will remain primarily VFR with unrestricted light rain and ceiling around 4K feet. After 18Z conditions will lower into the MVFR/Alternate Required category in rain. West/northwest winds around 10 knots with gusts still continuing until late afternoon at KAVP. Winds becoming light and variable this evening then becoming southeast late tonight at 5-8 knots. Southerly winds on Saturday at 10-15 knots. Outlook... Saturday night...Widespread restrictions in rain showers mixing with snow showers. Sunday / Monday...Variable ceiling restrictions with scattered lake effect snow showers north, generally VFR south half. Winds will also be quite strong and gusty Sunday. Tuesday...Generally VFR. Tuesday night/Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...RRM

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