Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 240723 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 323 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances, combined with lake moisture, will trigger some scattered sprinkles in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk valley today; perhaps as far south as the Twin Tiers this afternoon into evening. Otherwise, building high pressure will provide mainly dry and cool weather through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 AM Update... Fallish upper trough will be the main player in the near term, with fairly benign and cool weather. Dry cool air advection and scattered clouds are preventing a more significant fog night, but as is typical for late August, anywhere the sky has cleared out in the Twin Tiers-Western Catskills southward some valley fog is managing to form. Being on the shallow side this morning, it will not take long after dawn to mix out. Northwest flow, continued cold air advection aloft from incoming trough, diurnal heating at the surface, and some lake moisture contribution will combine to churn up clouds and a few sprinkles/light showers from Finger Lakes through Mohawk Valley today, extending into the Twin Tiers-Western Catskills this afternoon-early evening. However, still generally dry overall with at least partial sunshine north and a mostly sunny sky south. Highs will be mainly upper 60s-mid 70s which is a good 5-10 degrees short of climatology. Main axis of upper trough will swing through overnight tonight, resulting in enough clouds to hold back valley fog development. Lows tonight will be cool, in the upper 40s-lower 50s. There could also still be a couple sprinkles around. On Friday, the trough will start to lift out and surface high pressure will begin to build in from the western Great Lakes. Highs again will be upper 60s-mid 70s but dewpoints will dip even lower; in the upper 40s-near 50 late morning through afternoon. This along with continued northwest wind and a fair weather cumulus field that will dissipate late in the day will indeed have a true Fall flavor. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Cool surface high pressure will exert its influence on our weather through Sunday night. A small amount of energy will rotate through NY/PA this coming weekend, but the atmosphere will be very dry, precluding precipitation. Temperatures will average below normal. Daily highs will reach 70 to 75 degrees, and overnight lows will dip into the 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A continuation of the quiet weather pattern is forecast for the beginning of next week. A broad trough will remain fixed over the northeastern United States, while weak surface high pressure sits over NY/PA. A frontal system will approach our region on Wednesday, possibly spreading a few showers into NY and PA. Two tropical systems are forecast to move eastward late next week. It is too early to determine if either will spread moisture into the northeast.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will persist for all forecast sites 06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday except KELM where valley fog is expected early this morning. Scattered clouds will initially prevent fog formation, but eventually KELM VIS will fluctuate to IFR or worse towards dawn; perhaps even near airport minimums at times. Weak disturbances passing aloft today will produce a SCT-BKN deck across the NY terminals, and even a few sprinkles, yet still at VFR. Variable winds will become WNW-NW 5-10 knots during the day, then light north or variable this evening. Outlook... Friday through Monday...VFR except for possible valley fog at KELM in the few hours up to dawn each morning. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP

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