Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4

000
FGUS71 KBGM 202204
ESFBGM
NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-
123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-062215-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
504 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK NUMBER 14-04 - FEBRUARY 20, 2014

...SUMMARY...
THIS IS THE FOURTH IN A SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FOR THE ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING
SNOW MELT SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED
ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 20TH TO MARCH 6TH,
2014. THIS ASSESSMENT IS FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) BINGHAMTON
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA, WHICH INCLUDES THE FINGER LAKES/ONEIDA LAKE/OSWEGO
RIVER BASIN, CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN, NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN
AND THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AND SNOWMELT...
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS...
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, ESPECIALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

...DETAILS...

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS...PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA
BASIN AND THE DELAWARE BASIN, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW OR A COLD WINTRY MIX. OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION
HAS GENERALLY BEEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN BASINS, BUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN BASINS.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS - SNOW DEPTH GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1 TO 2
FEET ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO THE BRIEF MILD SPELL IN PROGRESS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) VALUES - WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW
PACK IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AVERAGING GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW DENSITY OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
IS RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT WHICH SUGGESTS PLENTY OF ABILITY
FOR THE SNOW TO ABSORB MODEST AMOUNTS OF WATER.

RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - ABOVE AVERAGE. COVERAGE OF ICE ON AREA
RIVERS IS GREATER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT YEARS.
ACCUMULATED FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
SUGGESTS ICE THICKNESS MAY ALSO BE ABOVE WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS AND POSSIBLE RELATED
FLOODING WILL LINGER WITH US THROUGH THE SPRING THAW.

STREAM AND RIVER CONDITIONS - USGS GAUGES INDICATE STREAM FLOWS
ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE BASINS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - SOILS ARE FROZEN. THE MEASURED FROST
DEPTH AT NWS BINGHAMTON IS 19 INCHES WHICH IS ONE OF THE DEEPEST
FROST LAYERS WE`VE HAD IN RECENT YEARS. THE LONG TERM PALMER
DROUGHT INDEX AND THE U.S. CROP MOISTURE INDEX WERE INDICATING
MOIST CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL SOIL WETNESS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK PART OF THE REGION.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE CONDITIONS - POOL HEIGHTS ARE AT TYPICAL LATE
WINTER LEVELS ON MOST AREA LAKES AND RESERVOIRS. THE NYC DELAWARE
BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE AT APPROXIMATELY 87 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH
IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AFTER THE SHORT TERM WARM SPELL CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY COMES TO AN END THIS SATURDAY...THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 14 DAY
FORECAST IS CALLING FOR MUCH COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THIS TREND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, INCREASING
THE SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK AGAIN. A
RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SOLIDIFY ICE COVER AND CONTINUE
TO BUILD THICKNESS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING TWO WEEKS.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) HISTORICAL
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK - THE PROBABILITY OF RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO TRENDS OF PREVIOUS
SEASONAL FLOODING.

LONG RANGE MODELING SUGGESTS SOME PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RISES
AND MINOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A FUNCTION
OF THE MODEL RECOGNIZING THE BRIEF WARM SPELL AND RAINFALL THAT
IS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE BEING A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON THE RAINFALL AND MELTING
SNOW. AS A RESULT...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELING DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY
FURTHER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

...CAVEATS...

THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF BROAD BASED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING AS SHOWN
ABOVE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER AND
LAKE FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN STORMS CAN NOT BE PRECISELY
PREDICTED...AND ARE NOT WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THIS OUTLOOK. HEAVY
RAIN CAN DEVELOP ON SHORT NOTICE...AND RAPIDLY CAUSE FLOODING ANY
TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FLASH FLOODING, OR THE
SEVERITY OF ANY POSSIBLE FUTURE FLOODING.

...REFERENCES...

MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THESE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET WEB SITES.

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM (CLICK HYDROLOGY LINK)
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/NERFC
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MARFC
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (FOR SNOW INFORMATION)

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS, ON MARCH 6, 2014.


$$

JAB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.