Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FGUS71 KBGM 051907
ESFBGM
NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-
123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-191915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS
ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED
TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

...SUMMARY...

.OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEXT TWO WEEKS IS...BELOW AVERAGE.

.FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL DUE TO CURRENT AND FUTURE SNOW...SOIL
AND RIVER ICE CONDITIONS IS...TYPICAL OF AN AVERAGE WINTER.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE BY BASIN. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER
YEAR ON OCTOBER 1, 2015...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM APPROXIMATELY
5 O 15 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE FOUND
MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN NEW YORK...AND THE
LOWEST AMOUNTS WERE RECORDED ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CHEMUNG
BASINS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE SUGGESTED NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN. DEFICIT AREAS RANGED
FROM ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CHEMUNG BASINS...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER DELAWARE
BASIN.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF FEBRUARY 5TH...
SNOW COVER RANGES FROM APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA WHICH IS ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW PACK RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.RIVER ICE COVER...NORMAL. AS OF FEBRUARY 4TH...SEVERAL STREAM
GAUGES WERE EXPERIENCING ICE EFFECTS...AND OBSERVER REPORTS
INDICATE THAT MANY OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER CHANNELS AND ASSOCIATED
TRIBUTARIES HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER. THEORETICAL ICE THICKNESS
CALCULATIONS WERE BETWEEN 8-12 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. AS ICE THICKNESS APPROACHES...OR EXCEEDS ONE
FOOT...THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAMMING DURING THAW EVENTS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY.

.STREAMFLOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS...NORMAL. ACCORDING TO THE USGS...
AVERAGE MONTHLY STREAMFLOW TO DATE AT MOST GAUGES WITHIN THE SERVICE
AREA WAS NEAR NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SOME GAUGES AROUND THE REGION WERE
EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE PALMER
DROUGHT INDEX SUGGESTS THAT LONG TERM REGIONAL SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME INDICATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES. THE FROST DEPTH RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE
IN BINGHAMTON EXTENDED 17 INCHES BELOW GROUND INDICATING THE GROUND
IS SUBSTANTIALLY FROZEN.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...THE
FINGER LAKES...ARMY CORPS FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA
BASIN...AND LAKE WALLENPAUPACK WERE NEAR THEIR TARGET LEVELS. THE NYC
DELAWARE BASIN WATER SUPPLY STORAGE WAS CURRENTLY BELOW THE LONG TERM
MEDIAN POOL LEVEL.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS CALL FOR COLDER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONTINUED GROWTH OF RIVER AND LAKE ICE...AND ADDITION TO THE EXISTING
SNOW COVER IS LIKELY. THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT THAW APPEARS VERY
LOW OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOODING IN THE SERVICE AREA
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. PROBABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF
FLOODING WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING BASED
ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF GENERALIZED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING. DUE TO A CONTINUED COLD WEATHER PATTERN
AND MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE OVERALL FLOOD
POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS LOW.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR
FROM NOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A
PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE
SEVERITY OF FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. IF CONDITIONS
CHANGE IN THE INTERIM...FLOOD WATCHES... WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
IN TWO WEEKS...ON FEBRUARY 19, 2015.

$$

JAB










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