Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FGUS71 KBGM 021958
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NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-
123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-042000-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
258 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS
DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS...FEBRUARY 2ND TO FEBRUARY 16TH.

...SUMMARY...
THE FLOOD RISK WITH RESPECT TO EXISTING HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IS
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. IT WOULD TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT MILD SPELL WITH A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO CAUSE SERIOUS
FLOODING.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS: ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. JANUARY FEATURED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ENHANCED AREAS OVER 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. THIS RESULTED IN DEPARTURES
UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CHEMUNG AND NORTHERN
SUSQUEHANNA BASINS.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...BELOW AVERAGE. SNOW COVER INCREASED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...BUT REMAINED BELOW
LONG TERM SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY. SNOW COVER GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A COATING TO 4 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CATSKILLS, TULLY-HEIBERGS AND
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES IN DEPTH. THE WATER
EQUIVALENT CONTAINED IN THE SNOW WAS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS,
BUT UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE DEEPEST AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION... WHICH DRAINS PARTIALLY INTO ONEIDA
LAKE...WAS IN A CLASS BY ITSELF WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW DEPTH IN
SOME AREAS, AND WATER EQUIVALENT UP TO 8 INCHES...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY CONSIDERED NORMAL.

.RIVER ICE COVER...WELL BELOW AVERAGE. AS OF FEBRUARY 1...MOST RIVERS
WERE FREE OF ICE, OR HAD VERY SCANT AMOUNTS OF FRAZIL SLUSH AND
PANS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

.STREAMFLOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS...STREAMFLOW AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 14
DAYS WAS CURRENTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL CONDITIONS WERE
GENERALLY WETTER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE NY BASINS AND DRIER THAN
AVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. TOPSOIL TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE
FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH NO SOLID ESTABLISHMENT OF A FROST
LAYER AT THIS TIME.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...VARIABLE. THE FINGER LAKES APPEARED TO
HAVE NORMAL WINTER POOLS, WHILE THE NYC DELAWARE RESERVOIR SYSTEM
AND LAKE WALLENPAUPACK WERE BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE THESE RESERVOIRS
BEING BELOW THEIR LONG TIME SEASONAL LEVELS...THEY HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN STORAGE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE WITH TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO EVERY ONE TO THREE DAYS. WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW, ALTHOUGH MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
COUPLE OF BRIEF MILD SPELLS WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD BE OF MIXED
TYPES, OR RAIN NEXT WEEK.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - RIVER
FORECAST MODEL BLENDS ARE HINTING AT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK,
ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS IN MILDER AIR AND MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND MINOR RISES WITH THIS FEATURE WITH
LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLOODING.

A CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF FLOODING, USING CURRENT HYDROLOGIC
CONDITIONS, SUGGESTS THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING DURING THE
ENTIRE TWO WEEK PERIOD IS BELOW NORMAL MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE CONDITIONS ARE WELL BELOW THE LONG TERM
FEBRUARY AVERAGE.

...IN CONCLUSION...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT OVERVIEW OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH
CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A
PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE
SEVERITY OF FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS, ON FEBRUARY 16, 2017. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE IN
THE INTERIM...FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

$$

JAB



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