Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS
DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS...JANUARY 8TH TO JANUARY 22ND.

...SUMMARY...
.SHORT TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL...ANTECEDENT GROUND...SNOW AND RIVER
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE ICE JAM FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ALSO BELOW
AVERAGE...BUT MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AVERAGE AS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF RIVER ICE.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER
YEAR ON OCTOBER 1ST...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 5 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE CHEMUNG AND FINGER LAKES BASINS RECEIVED ONLY ABOUT 50 TO 75
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...WHILE THE SUSQUEHANNA HEADWATERS AND UPPER DELAWARE
BASINS WERE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...BELOW AVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOW
BELTS...THE REGIONAL SNOW COVER WAS GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. THIS IS SEVERAL
INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OSWEGO BASIN
HAD SNOW COVER RANGING FROM 4 TO 20 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BIT BELOW
NORMAL. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW WAS LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT THE DEEPER SNOW COVER IN THE OSWEGO BASIN CONTAINS LIQUID
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.

.RIVER ICE COVER...BELOW AVERAGE. AS OF JANUARY 8TH...RIVER ICE COVER AND
THICKNESS WAS JUST STARTING TO FORM AND THEREFORE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY JANUARY.

.STREAMFLOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS...ACCORDING TO THE USGS...AVERAGE MONTHLY
STREAMFLOW AT GAUGES WITHIN THE SERVICE AREA WAS NEAR NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT
INDEX SUGGESTS THAT LONG TERM REGIONAL SOIL MOISTURE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
TOPSOIL WAS FREEZING UP QUICKLY AS THE FROST DEPTH RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN
BINGHAMTON EXTENDED 13 INCHES BELOW GROUND.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...VARIABLE. IN GENERAL...THE FINGER LAKES...ARMY
CORPS FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...AND LAKE WALLENPAUPACK
WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TARGET LEVELS FOR JANUARY. THE NYC DELAWARE BASIN
WATER SUPPLY STORAGE WAS CURRENTLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LESS PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST WEEK...
WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND BECOME WETTER BY THE
END OF THE SECOND WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS AT THIS TIME DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR
STORMS UNTIL POSSIBLY NEAR THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK. THE OSWEGO BASIN MAY RECEIVE
NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOODING FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE SUGGESTS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF FLOODING WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN
THE PAST DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING BASED ON A
CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF GENERALIZED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE
TO FLOODING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT
ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS,
ON JANUARY 22, 2015. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE IN THE INTERIM...FLOOD WATCHES...
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

$$

JAB




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