Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK - FINAL...

THIS IS THE SIXTH...AND LAST FOR THE SEASON...OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS. THIS
OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS...MARCH 17TH THROUGH MARCH 31ST.

...SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...THE FLOOD RISK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS LESS THAN WHAT
IS TYPICAL FOR LATE MARCH. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE
AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PAST MONTH...THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. THE SNOW PACK AND RIVER ICE
IS NON-EXISTENT WHICH IS ABOUT A MONTH EARLIER THAN USUAL. AT
THIS TIME...IT WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO TRIGGER ANY
RIVER FLOODING.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL DEPARTURES HAVE
BEEN 125 TO 250 PERCENT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...AS OF MARCH 17...THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK OR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.RIVER ICE COVER...THERE IS NO ICE ON THE RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

.STREAMFLOW...MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS AT USGS MONITORING
GAUGES WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.

.SOIL CONDITIONS...PER THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT INDEX...DEEP
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE ABOUT AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT WERE TENDING TOWARD WET ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. THE
CROP MOISTURE INDEX... AS AN INDICATOR OF SHALLOW SOIL MOISTURE...WAS
SUGGESTING NORMAL CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WITH A TENDENCY FOR
WET CONDITIONS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...THE ARMY CORPS FLOOD CONTROL
RESERVOIRS...THE FINGER LAKES...LAKE WALLENPAUPACK AND THE NYC
DELAWARE RESERVOIR SYSTEM WERE ALL RECORDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK WAS
INDICATING MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. METEOROLOGICAL
MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST RAIN EVENT
AROUND THE 23RD TO 25TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS INDICATE LESS THAN A
10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE SUGGESTS
CHANCES OF FLOODING ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT
HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST.

...IN CONCLUSION...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF GENERALIZED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...OR ICE JAM FLOODING ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

JAB



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