516
FXUS64 KEPZ 101701
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1101 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Our warm and dry Spring season continues across the Borderland,
but we will see a push of moisture from the east today and
tonight as a frontal boundary arrives on easterly winds, which
will be gusty overnight tonight. We could see some isolated
showers or thunderstorms over eastern and central areas later
today and Saturday before the moisture gets shoved back out of the
region late Saturday. Sunday and most of next week, we revert back
to a warm and mostly dry and breezy weather pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Deep westerly flow continues over the region, with a cut off low
pressure system over the Great Basin to our north. This feature
will help to draw in a couple of surface-based frontal pushes
today and tonight from areas from the north and east. Today we
will see a push of continental air from the N and E, with moderate
increases in moisture. Tonight we will see a harder push on gusty
E and SE winds from the east, with healthier gulf moisture out of
the Southern Plains. Today we will see good gains in lower level
moisture from the Rio Grande valley eastward, and tonight it
pushes west to the Continental Divide. Dewpoints will rise from
the teens to the 30s and 40s, and PWATs will double to around
0.05". For today/this afternoon, shower and storm chances look
limited by capping and dry air aloft for all but possibly the
lower east slopes of the SACs and far eastern areas of Otero and
Hudspeth counties. Overnight, the moisture increases and deepens
on the strong E/SE push, but we lose the surface heating, and thus
instability. It will be a battle on Saturday between heating for
instability, and scouring out of the moisture as SW winds return
by mid day. The NBM does have POPs and PCPN in the grids, and we
follow our neighbors to the N and E with some SHRA and TSTM over
our central and eastern zones, but it is likely overdone. The
result will likely be more clouds and less precipitation. Winds
overnight tonight maybe the bigger deal for most of the area, as
the east push overnight looks to bring winds of 20-35 mph for the
southern, central, and eastern lowlands and sky islands.

The moisture and east push of Friday night/Saturday morning looks
to get rapidly reversed Saturday afternoon as daytime heating and
mixing flips winds back to SW and W. The models are in good
agreement with mixing out and pushing back east the moisture as
early as mid/late afternoon from west to east across the region.
Our western areas will be very dry, our central areas mostly dry,
and our eastern areas losing moisture rapidly.

Sunday, models begin to move the large upper low to our north,
across the central rockies, into the Plains. For us we will see
some breezy west winds return, with deep and dry air moving back
in. Monday and Tuesday we will come under a weak upper ridge, with
a bit lighter wind (albeit, still with afternoon breezes), and
some day to day warming of temperatures.

We will be keeping an eye on Wednesday and beyond of next week as
the global models indicate an open trough swinging in from the
west, followed by an upper low dropping in from the N. The GFS and
EC both indicate some associated limited moisture moving in with
mainly mountain showers/storms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 through the early evening. Dryline will be
pushing west to at least the Continental Divide quickly this
evening which will shift winds to the east to southeast at
5-15KTS, likely stronger on the west slopes of the Franklins and
Organs. Behind this dryline, expect an area of lower clouds around
SCT-BKN020-030 to push west to around the Rio Grande Valley,
confidence not high how far this cloud deck makes it, but it will
likely be in Hudspeth county and cause very low ceilings along the
eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. A few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm possible as well in these far eastern
areas after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

We`ll begin to see some changes in the weather pattern that will
shift our fire weather concerns downward for a couple of days, for
much of the region. Aloft we continue today with a dry westerly
flow which will keep the region seasonably warm, and generally
dry. However, at the surface a frontal boundary will push in from
the NE today, with limited low-level moisture for areas over and
east of the Rio Grande (western areas will stay quite dry today).
This moderate moisture intrusion from the Plains will help to
bring up minRH this afternoon for those central and eastern areas.
The surface high pressure to our east will ease the surface
gradient and allow for slightly relaxed winds today vs. previous
days. Our far eastern areas (Sacs, Otero and Hudsepth areas may
see some isolated showers or storms, but most of the region should
remain dry.

Tonight a second east push blows in on gusty E and SW winds with
more moisture, spreading all the way west to the Continental
Divide by Saturday morning. This will give more of the region a
better RH recovery tonight,a along with some low clouds and gusty
east winds. We could see some overnight showers, and even possibly
a few storms over the central and eastern zones, extending into
Saturday, through mid afternoon. Any thunderstorms that do form
will bring the potential for dry lightening this afternoon through
Saturday. Daytime mixing and deep westerly winds aloft will
rapidly dry the atmosphere on Saturday, with the moisture shifting
back to the east through the afternoon. Thus our western areas
will again be quite dry, with our central areas drying quickly,
and our eastern areas hanging on to some moisture. We could see
some lingering showers or storms over our eastern zones through
late afternoon on Saturday.

Sunday and beyond we go back to high pressure aloft with dry west
flow conditions. Monday and Tuesday will bring warmer and drier
conditions, with mildly , or occasionally breezy afternoon
conditions. Thus somewhat elevated fire weather. Next Wednesday
and Thursday another upper trough and low center swings and drops
in, with some limited moisture possible. Thus we will watch that
period for some shower and storm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  63  90  60 /  10  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            80  58  84  55 /  10  20  20  20
Las Cruces               88  57  88  52 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo               83  55  84  51 /  10  30  30  10
Cloudcroft               60  42  61  38 /  10  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences    83  55  84  51 /   0  10  10   0
Silver City              77  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  51  87  49 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                85  49  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  61  87  57 /  10  10  10   0
Dell City                81  57  84  53 /   0  30  30  10
Fort Hancock             90  59  92  54 /  10  10  20  10
Loma Linda               80  56  81  53 /   0  20  20  10
Fabens                   90  60  91  56 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             85  57  86  51 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           86  61  87  59 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            85  54  84  49 /  10  20  10   0
Hatch                    87  53  87  47 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus                 87  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                83  59  84  52 /  10  20  20  10
Mayhill                  66  46  71  43 /  10  40  40  20
Mescalero                70  45  71  41 /  10  30  30  20
Timberon                 69  44  71  41 /  10  30  30  10
Winston                  76  47  76  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hillsboro                82  50  82  47 /   0  10  10   0
Spaceport                83  51  83  46 /   0  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             78  44  76  39 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                   80  45  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    83  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  48  79  46 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                   85  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz