538
FXUS64 KEPZ 200532
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1132 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and dry conditions will
continue for the foreseeable future. The warmest day will be
Monday before temperatures settle to near normal or just below
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Warmer than average temperatures will continue again on Monday
where much of the lowlands will see low to mid 90 degree
temperatures. El Paso is forecasted to reach a high temperature
of 98 degrees, which is only a couple degrees off from the record
of 100 degrees. Locations along the Rio Grande Valley in Texas
could see 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon. Tonight will be another
quiet night with light winds and dry conditions. The subtropical
jet is inching closer to the Borderland and will begin bringing
high clouds to the area late tonight persisting through tomorrow.
In addition, a shortwave near Baja California will push closer to
the area during the day on Monday. This will help bring breezy
winds to the area tomorrow afternoon. Very dry fuels and air
coupled with these breezy winds will create critical fire weather
conditions that afternoon. This aforementioned shortwave will push
north and east exiting the area overnight. Cool air will push in
behind this trough late Mon/early Tues, bringing temperatures down
to near or just below normal on Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures steadily remain near or just below average heading
later into the work week with only a couple degree change in
between days. Breezy afternoon winds will persist each day as
multiple shortwaves slide over the area. Rain chances are non-
existent for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. W winds AOB 8kts
persist through the AM. Gusts to around 25kts return in the
afternoon from W-SW, lasting through the rest of the period as a
cold front moves in Monday night. SKC gives way to SCT250 by
daybreak as high-level moisture arrives from the west.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow afternoon for
southern NM. 20ft winds will be west southwesterly 15-20 MPH in
this area with far west TX seeing weaker winds. Min RHs continue
to stay within critical thresholds (5-11%) areawide and fuels
continue to stay very dry for much of the area. Fuels in the Gila
region are still relatively wet but wind speeds will be the
strongest in this area and weaker as you go southeast towards west
TX. In addition, temperatures will be well above average tomorrow
but a cool front coming from the west will push in late Mon/early
Tues bringing a bit better moisture behind the front, winds
shifting west northwesterly, and a few degree drop in
temperatures. Min RHs stay below 15% throughout the work week
with the lowlands seeing single digit values. Winds stay breezy
each afternoon with calm winds overnight. We can expect to stay
elevated for fire weather conditions through the remainder of the
week. Winds won`t meet Red Flag criteria but everything else will.

Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  98  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            63  92  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               60  95  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  93  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  70  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  93  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  93  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  90  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  95  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  96  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  98  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  88  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  98  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  93  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  94  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  93  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  95  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  95  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  92  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  54  83  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                51  80  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 52  80  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  50  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  90  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  92  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  86  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  89  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  83  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   54  92  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  93  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           56  93  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  87  54  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers