453
FNUS73 KFGF 111052
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for TNC 8&9, Rx Fire Learning Event...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
552 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

West winds prevail this morning, then become southwesterly heading
into the late morning and afternoon. A few gusts to near 25 mph
are possible. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to near 80
degrees, with a chance to see the mid 80s given current forecast
trends. This could potentially lower RH values further, and RH in
the low 20s is possible by mid afternoon. Look for increasing
cloud cover late in the afternoon and into the evening hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....25700 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 120700 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing
                    to (140600 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  40  40  69  78  68  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  73  76  78  80  80  80
RH..............39  32  28  27  27  26  26
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  15  15
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  19  19  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 4.4 7.1 8.3 9.1 9.7 9.7
Mixing wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixing wind spd.15  15  20  20  20  25  20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26  66  121 141 173 193 184

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph shifting to the west.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 10
                    to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight,
                    then shifting to the west 15 to 20 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....(146700 knot-ft) decreasing to 39100 knot-ft
                    early in the evening decreasing to 4700 knot-ft
                    late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........58     39     34     32     30     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............80     75     65     61     59     56
RH..............26     34     45     54     64     71
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  W 10
20 ft wind gust.19     16     16     21     22     19
Mix hgt (ft)....7700   700    500    400    500    400
Mixing wind.....W 20   W 15   SW 15  SW 15  SW 20  W 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..147    8      6      7      8      6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    north 10 to 15 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....5400 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    103700 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........28        13        5         6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54        61        73        75
RH..............76        64        36        26
20 FT wind......W 5G14    N 10G15   N 15G18   N 15G21
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1200      4400      6600
Mixing wind.....NW 15     N 15      N 20      N 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5         17        71        101

$$
Forecaster...TL
Requested by...Eric Hoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413709.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ehoff@tnc.org