Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active period of precipitation chances arrives starting
  this evening and continuing on through Monday night. Anything
  from strong-severe thunderstorms to accumulating snowfall is
  in the forecast.

- This evening/tonight, chances for thunderstorms return to the
  area, mainly for areas south of Interstate 80. Severe weather
  is not expected at this time. There will be the potential for
  wintry weather not far north of the forecast area through
  tonight, so will be keeping a close eye on how temperatures
  trend.

- Better chances for thunderstorms are expected Sunday
  afternoon-evening, and some will have the potential to be
  strong to severe, mainly for areas south of Interstate 80.
  Hail/damaging winds look to be the primary threats.

- Sunday night into Monday, colder air building into the area
  will bring a west to east transition over to snow, though a
  brief period of a wintry mix in that transition zone is also
  possible. Uncertainties remain with how that transition timing
  evolves, and with the location of stronger banding. Strong
  northwesterly winds are also expected to develop, especially
  across the western half of the area, which may lead to
  hazardous travel conditions in areas of falling snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Currently through the day today...

Most of the area is seeing quiet conditions early this
morning...but across our north-northeastern portions, a band
of light snow continues to slide through. Looking aloft, upper
air data show generally zonal flow in place across the Central
Plains...set up between low pressure spinning in the Hudson
Bay/Ontario region and broad ridging over the Southern Plains.
To the west, a stronger low pressure system is making its way
onto the Pacific NW coast. An area of embedded subtle mid-level
forcing has resulted in this area of light snow stretching
roughly from Valentine through the Ord and York areas. Not
expecting notable amounts, but a few tenths of an inch or so are
not out of the question. Thankfully, surface high pressure
extending south int the area is keeping winds on the light
side...winds are east-southeasterly around 10 MPH. Temps early
this morning sit in the mid-upper 20s.

This ongoing activity is expected to continue pushing east early
this morning, ending by mid-morning. The rest of today we are
sitting in a bit of a lull between waves, and have the forecast
dry, though confidence in that is not high for a few of our
eastern counties...as a couple models try redeveloping some
light precip closer to midday. Kept mention out of the forecast
as most models either do not develop the precip, or do it just
outside our forecast area...but it`ll be something we`ll be
keeping an eye on in the coming hours. Winds through the day are
expected to turn more south- southeasterly, and increase with
time, as surface low pressure deepens to our west over CO. Gusts
near 25-30 MPH certainly not out of the question this
afternoon, especially across the western half of the area. No
notable changes were made to forecast highs for today, ranging
from the lower 40s in the northeast to lower 50s to the
southwest.

Tonight through Monday night...

A more active pattern arrives tonight and continues through
Monday, bringing the potential of anything from strong-severe
thunderstorms to accumulating snowfall. The first round of
precipitation ramps back up this evening-overnight. Though the
main upper level low pressure system is shown by models to still
be well off to our west, digging south through the Rockies...a
shortwave disturbance out ahead of it is expected to swing
northeast across the region...with lift also aided by increased
convergence along the nose of a strengthened low-level jet.
Along with warm air/moisture advecting north into the area,
models show the potential for a few hundred j/kg of instability
developing, bring the chance for some thunderstorms back to the
forecast...mainly across areas south of Interstate 80 (these
storms are not expected to be severe). Across far northern
portions of the forecast area, will be closely watching how
temperatures trend and the threat for more of a wintry mix of
precipitation/light icing. At this time, models are in pretty
good agreement keeping the sub-freezing surface temperatures to
our north...but it isn`t by much.

During the day on Sunday...confidence in just how precipitation
chances evolve is not overly high, am a little concerned there
could be a bit more of a lull in activity than what is
currently in the forecast. The activity that develops tonight is
expected to push off to the east of the area during the morning
hours, while the main upper level system is still working its
way east through the Rockies. It`s not until mid-late afternoon
that that system emerges out onto the Plains and ramps up the
next round of precipitation chances. At the surface, low
pressure continues to deepen and slide into western KS, with a
northward extending cold front and our main focus being the
dryline to our southwest. Our main concern during the
afternoon/evening hours will lie with the placement of that
dryline and the thunderstorms that are expected to develop along
it. There are still some differences with whether things
develop over southwestern portions of the forecast area or just
a bit further west-southwest. There is better potential for
greater instability ahead of that surface boundary, as southerly
flow continues to pull in higher dewpoints...though we`re still
only talking low 50s at best. Models are in decent agreement
with a narrow corridor of around 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE
(potentially closer to 1500) nudging into west-southwestern
portions of the forecast area...and though stronger deeper layer
shear is a bit to our south, it`s sufficient across our area
for some strong-severe storms to be a concern. The SPC Day 2
Marginal Risk area extends north to around Interstate 80, while
the Slight Risk area remains across our north central KS
counties. Hail/wind look to be the primary threats, the better
tornado threat currently looks to be just to our south. Outside
of the precipitation chances, Sunday looks to be breezy/windy
across much of the area, thanks to a tightening pressure
gradient as that surface low deepens to our west...with
southerly winds of 20-30 MPH possible, and higher gusts...with
the south-southeastern half having the best potential for those
higher gusts. Confidence in high temperatures is pretty low due
to the uncertainties with how preciptiation evolves through the
day...but current forecast has mid 50s east to mid 60s west.

As we get later into Sunday evening and through Monday/Monday
night, the main concern goes from thunderstorm chances to the
magnitude/timing of colder air moving in from the west and the
switch to more wintry weather/accumulating snow. Unfortunately,
can`t say at this time that confidence in how things pan out has
increased...there are still plenty of differences between
models. Big picture-wise, models show the main upper level low
swinging northeast into the heart of the Central Plains Sunday
night, but vary with the exact location of the stronger
frontogenetical banding/heavier snowfall amounts...and just how
quickly things switch over to snow from west-east. Then as we
get into Monday, there are actually more questions, as some
models show that first low filling/weakening, with redevelopment
further south, and potentially another band setting up and
impacting the forecast area. Ensemble data continues to focus
the better potential for accumulating snow across our north-
northwest, and because of lingering model uncertainties, made no
changes to NBM/WPC guidance for QPF/snow amounts. Current
highest amounts are in far NNW areas, where 2-3" are forecast,
with a broader 1-2" southward through the Tri-Cities, and
continues to lower the further south-southeast you go...but
wherever that banding ends up setting up will likely have more.
Still expecting stronger northwesterly winds to build in Sunday
night-Monday as the main surface low slides northeast through
the region...with the strongest speeds/gusts still expected
across the western half or so of the forecast area. Gusts in
those western areas around 50 MPH are not out of the question,
though admittedly the forecast is on the higher side of
models/guidance...it`s not an ideal time of day to tap into
stronger winds aloft, so it`ll be interesting to see how winds
trend in the coming model runs. Considered joining NNW neighbors
with issuing a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night-Monday for
at least a few counties, but confidence in higher snowfall
totals/their location is not high, and neighbors also decided to
hold off on any changes at this time. The gusty winds combined
with any heavier snow bands that do develop could make for a
rough go of things into Monday. Precipitation is expected to
wane from west to east Monday night-early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through the end of the work week...

With main forecast focus being on tonight-Monday, no changes
were made to the NBM guidance for mid-late week. The forecast
dries out starting Tuesday in the wake of this Sun-Mon system,
and remains that way through the day on Thursday...though
deterministic models hint at a weak disturbance on Wednesday
potentially bringing some light precipitation into the vicinity
of the forecast area. Otherwise the next chances for
precipitation return to the forecast Thurs night-Fri
night...though chances are only in the 20-30 percent range at
this point.

As far as temperatures go, the colder air mass bringing highs
mainly in the 30s on Monday sticks around for Tuesday, with
highs in the 30s-low 40s...and overnight lows both Tuesday
morning and Wednesday morning in the teens. Tuesday morning wind
chill values of right around zero to -10 are forecast.
Temperatures are expected to improve through the rest of the
week...with 60s returning Thur/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Expecting dry conditions for most of this TAF period, chances
for showers return after midnight tonight through the end of the
period. Currently have VFR conditions, though confidence in that
in the latter portions of the period are not high. Winds turn
more southeasterly today/tonight, with gusty winds expected this
afternoon through tonight...gusts near 25-30 MPH are expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP


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