Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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618 FXUS63 KICT 031943 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 243 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving east-southeast across the region tonight through early Saturday. - Additional rain/embedded thunderstorm chances over mainly southern and southeast Kansas later Saturday night through Sunday. - Severe weather potential Monday afternoon-night. - Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A strong cold front will drive southeast through the region late tonight through Saturday morning, trailing from potent shortwave energy traversing the northern half of the CONUS. The strong frontal forcing in concert with returning low-level moisture/instability should support a few clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms marching east-southeast across the region overnight through early Saturday. The combination steep mid-level lapse rates, modest instability and modest effective deep layer shear will support a lower-end severe weather threat, especially generally northwest of the KS Turnpike corridor before about 3 AM. Thinking the strongest activity will be capable of dime to half- dollar size hail, 50-65 mph winds , and locally heavy rainfall. Since this activity will likely be fairly progressive, widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely, although patchy amounts up to around one inch are possible, especially northwest of the KS Turnpike. Rain/storm chances will gradually exit southeast Kansas to the east Saturday morning. It will feel rather chilly Saturday morning in wake of this front, given the breezy/gusty north winds and early morning temperatures in the 40s-50s. Breezy north winds and below average temperatures will prevail through the rest of Saturday, with highs reaching the 60s for most. Another round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected later Saturday night through Sunday, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains. Latest model consensus keeps the greatest rain chances over mainly southern to southeast Kansas with this next system. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall looks to be from near the KS/OK border on south. The severe weather threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability, although perhaps small hail may accompany the strongest activity. Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The thermodynamic and kinematic environments favor severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, given the anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear. However, there remains uncertainty on the timing, amplitude, and placement of various synoptic features, which will play a vital role in the potential magnitude of severe weather Monday afternoon-night. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details the next few days. After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week, with a gradual cooling trend through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Returning low-level moisture will support continued MVFR ceilings through the afternoon, possibly scattering out and/or lifting for a time this evening, before filling back in overnight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will blast south across the region later tonight through Saturday morning, with gusty north winds and MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings in its wake. A line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east- southeast will likely accompany this frontal zone overnight into early Saturday. Dime to quarter size hail and 50-60 mph winds may accompany the strongest activity, especially across central Kansas before 3 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK