609
FXUS63 KLMK 131755
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
155 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and humid with continued chances of showers and storms
  through today into tonight. A cluster of stronger storms expected
  this evening with potential for locally heavy rain, and strong
  gusty winds.

* Potential for a few pockets of heavy rainfall with 2-3+" across
  southwest Indiana by late evening, particularly Dubois, Orange,
  and Perry counties. Some flooding concerns could develop.

* Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more
  scattered rain and storm chances each day. Heavy rain, gusty
  winds, and lightning will be the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An interesting setup for today into tonight as more shower and storm
chances linger this morning into the afternoon. This will then be
followed by another round of potentially stronger storms late
evening into the overnight.

Early this morning, isolated to widely scattered showers (and
perhaps a few storms) will continue as weak low level jetting ahead
of an upper trough axis continues. Will keep pops in the 20-30
percent range to account for this. These showers should push east of
our by sunrise, and do expect we`ll have at least some lull in
activity through the morning hours.

By this afternoon, could destabilize enough for a few showers or
storms, but the main activity is expected later in the evening into
the early morning hours of Monday. Expect to have an axis of
moderate instability (1500-2500 J/KG of ML CAPE) extending into our
western CWA by this evening ahead of a remnant MCV left over from
the cluster of convection currently over the central Red River
Valley. By this time, a cluster of storms is expected to be in the
mid Mississippi River Valley, and should move into our NW CWA where
deep layer shear will see an uptick to around 20-25 knots. This
extra shear should be enough for some loosely organized updrafts,
and could present the opportunity for a few stronger showers or
storms. Hopefully, storms will have just enough motion to keep heavy
rainfall amounts spread out a bit more. That being said, sometimes
these congealed clusters can create pockets of localized heavy
rainfall amounts. Looking at forecast soundings, a deep and moist
column coupled with high freezing levels should support efficient
rainfall processes. PWAT values surge to over 2" through the column
with this evening cluster of storms. Taking notice of the 13/00z
HREF Max 24 hour QPF values, and the pockets of higher LPMM values
suggest that there could be some localized 2-3" amounts in our NW
CWA. WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall seems warranted for that
area and will likely message the slightly more elevated flood threat
up there. Outside of that area of focus, rainfall amounts should be
more manageable.

Temperatures aren`t expected to be quite as warm today as they were
yesterday, however max values are still expected in the upper 80s
and low 90s. Look for mild overnight lows in the 70 to 75 degree
range for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Monday - Monday Night...

Models seem to be latching onto a remnant MCV or weak shortwave
still hanging on across our area on Monday. In addition, a weak
surface boundary will likely be over or just north of the CWA. As a
result of the these features, should be enough of a trigger for
isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage, especially in the
afternoon and evening. Ahead of initiation, temps should still rise
a bit of above normal, peaking around 90 degrees. A few showers and
storms could linger into the overnight, but overall convection
should diminish around and after sunset.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

The Tuesday time frame may offer the "driest" overall look to it as
the upper ridge briefly tries to win out over our area. Will still
carry some isolated to widely scattered chances this day, but that
will mainly be due to localized heating/convective temps being
reached as there really doesn`t appear to be an obvious trigger. NBM
senses a notable increase in temps this day, also adding confidence
that we`ll be mostly dry across the area. Looking for highs solidly
in the low 90s, with perhaps a few mid 90s in your typical warm
spots. Tuesday night is a mild overnight with lows mostly in the mid
70s.

Wednesday - Saturday...

Active weather looks to continue through the mid and late week
portion of the forecast, and likely into the weekend as well. The
overall pattern doesn`t change much during this stretch as upper
ridging dominates across the SE CONUS, and a zonal flow pattern
controls the northern half of the CONUS. We`ll be situated between
these two features, which will give us the combination of some heat
(temps above normal), a relatively high PWAT airmass, and a few weak
cool fronts/shortwaves embedded in the passing zonal flow. As a
result, we`ll continue to carry shower and storm chances every day.
For the most part, we`ll be pretty unstable, but will be lacking in
deep layer shear. There are a couple instances where our northern
CWA may catch some slightly higher deep layer shear values from a
passing shortwave, but overall most storms should be garden
variety/pulse in nature. For now, the best coverage of storms looks
to be Wed/Thur as a shortwave and it`s associated surface low drag a
cool front down toward our region.

By Friday/Saturday, the front may impinge enough into our area to
bring some slightly cooler temps. This looks to be the case as NBM
is going with solid low to mid 90s for Wed/Thur, and then backs off
into the upper 80s to around 90 for highs late week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

After a stubborn low stratus deck from HNB/SDF skies have been able
to mix out mostly. We continue to see HNB bounce from MVFR to VFR
under the scattered Cu deck around 2500-3500 Ft. A weak approaching
system around the bootheel of MO could become more organized and
spread some showers/storms into the area later this evening. Some of
these storms could be strong to isolated severe for locations like
BWG. We may see a few other waves of storms and showers work across
later tonight into tomorrow morning but overall confidence is low on
timing and placement. We will also see a few location drop down to
MVFR as another low stratus layer moves in tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN