Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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407 FXUS62 KMFL 071644 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1244 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 A rather strong mid level ridge will extend through the Gulf of Mexico and build towards South Florida as a mid level trough departs further into the western Atlantic for the rest of today and into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly continue to shift southeastward during this time frame. The positioning of the surface high will promote southeasterly wind flow through Wednesday. With just enough lower level moisture in place, the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will provide enough lift to support isolated shower and thunderstorm development where they interact with each other over interior Southwest Florida this afternoon into the early evening. With substantial dry air aloft, chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain very low. However, heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm that does develop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish later this evening due to loss of diurnal heating. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 70 around the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. On Wednesday, as mid level ridging continues to build over the region, some drier air will work its way down into the lower levels. This will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms very limited and many areas will remain dry throughout the day. With the ridge building, a warming trend will begin to take place as high temperatures soar into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The Atlantic ridge will shift south as a frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid to late week period. This will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, RHs across interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20% range on Thursday and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions. Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeasterly winds around 10 kts this afternoon will gradually become light and variable as the evening progresses. Isolated showers and storms will develop over interior SW Florida this afternoon, however, the convection will stay away from the terminals. At KAPF, winds will become SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue through the middle of the week across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds may shift to the southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds will gradually become south to southwesterly across all local waters heading towards the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The rip current risk will remain elevated throughout the rest of the week across the Atlantic Coast beaches with the highest chances of rip currents remaining over the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 89 76 88 / 10 0 0 10 West Kendall 74 90 73 90 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 91 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 74 88 75 88 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 76 88 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 87 75 88 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 88 76 92 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 75 87 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 75 91 74 90 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...CWC