512
FXUS62 KMHX 120539
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
139 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry cold front will move through Eastern NC overnight.
High pressure then builds in from the west tomorrow through
Monday night. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure
builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts
us late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Sat....A clear sky earlier this evening is giving
way to increasing clouds from Greenville west, as a cold front
approaches our area. This front will move through overnight,
bringing a band of mid level clouds to the area. As the dayshift
pointed out, some very light precipitation can`t be ruled out
especially across the far northwest. Our 0Z upper air sounding
showed a tiny bit of moisture around 6,000 feet, otherwise it
was very dry. Worded the forecast a slight chance of sprinkles
in these areas to reflect the minimal amount of precipitation,
if any, due to such a dry sounding.

Despite the cooler airmass, clouds and wind will keep temps
from falling too drastically, and have lows mostly in the mid to
upper 50s. In fact temps may hold steady or even rise a bit as
the clouds increase, especially in areas that decoupled this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Breezy but warmer conditions expected
tomorrow behind the cold front as high pressure begins to build
in from the west. Rebounding low level heights as well as
downsloping westerly flow will help highs reach the mid to upper
70s across ENC, with a few 80 readings possible south of US 70.

The combination of warm temps, a dry airmass, and breezy
conditions could contribute to some elevated fire weather
potential tomorrow afternoon, but the recent rains yesterday
as well as only marginal expected conditions should limit the
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early
next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled
weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure
tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure
builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will
impact the area late in the week.

Sunday Night through Monday night...High pressure will become
centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate
offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft. Temps will be
seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in
the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below
normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very
comfortable conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to
be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday
and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the
models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves
offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low
into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the
western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft
bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z
operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across
the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on
Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring
greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the
area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept
PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in
better agreement with another southern stream system quickly
moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance
differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the
Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most
guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/...
As of 140 AM Sun...The probability of sub-VFR flight conditions
over the next 24 hours is less than 10%.

VFR conditions prevail across all areas early this morning as a
weak pre-frontal trough and associated cloud cover (confined
above 7 kft) push across ENC. Clear skies are expected to
prevail immediately behind this boundary and prevail through
most of the day, although some modest cu field development is
possible in the afternoon. Breezy WNW winds expected this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the coastal
plain. Across the northern Outer Banks, a secondary front will
cross the area late this afternoon as a weak area of low
pressure passes offshore bringing further veering of winds to
the north and eventually northeasterly into the overnight hours.

After sunset, winds will rapidly decouple under clear skies as
high pressure moves overhead. Some patchy radiational fog is
possible at the most vulnerable sites, but odds of anything
impactful to operations are very low - less than 10%.

LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Monday as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure
system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with
deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-
VFR continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 930 PM Sat...Improving conditions will continue through
tomorrow though it will still remain breezy with some elevated
seas remaining overnight, especially off Hatteras.

Winds will veer quickly around to the south overnight at 10 kts
or less ahead of a cold front. The front will push through the
forecast area early tomorrow morning with winds turning to the
WNW behind it at 10-20 kts, and some brief gusts to 25 kts will
be possible. WNW to NW winds then continue tomorrow at around
15-20 kts.

Seas will be 4-6 ft through this evening, and drop to 3-5 ft
overnight and through most of tomorrow. Some 6 ft seas could
briefly creep into the central zones tomorrow morning in
response to the uptick in winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters
Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system
will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly
winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around
2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low
pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...EH/SK/SGK