National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPSR 181832
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1132 AM MST Thu Apr 18 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected through
early next week. Daily afternoon high temperatures will continue
to top out in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 90s
Sunday and Monday with a few warmer locations potentially
approaching 100 degrees. Otherwise, a weak disturbance will pass
over the Desert Southwest for the end of the week, bringing
widespread breezy conditions on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry, benign weather continues this morning as our current synoptic
pattern features flat ridging prevailing over the Southwest.
Meanwhile, a couple of weak shortwave troughs are seen on early
morning WV imagery situated over the eastern Pacific west of the
California coast. Associated with one of these shortwaves is an
expansive area of mid and high clouds that is now pushing into
southern California with cloud coverage increasing across Arizona as
well. Cloud cover will continue to increase over the region through
the rest of the morning and into the afternoon with mostly cloudy
skies expected today. Afternoon temperatures today will see
little change from yesterday as afternoon highs across the lower
deserts are forecast to top out in the low to mid 90s once again.
Mostly clear skies prevail once again tomorrow morning as mid and
high clouds push east.

One of the aforementioned shortwave troughs will push through the
region Friday-Saturday, bringing increased breeziness Friday.
Afternoon gusts Friday are expected to climb upwards of 15-25 mph,
while stronger gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible across
parts of Imperial County going into Friday evening. Despite 500 mb
heights dropping to around 575 dm with the passage of this trough,
temperatures will experience little change with highs Friday and
Saturday maintaining readings in the low to mid 90s. Ridging will
prevail once again in the wake of the passage of the trough with
forecast highs warming into the mid to upper 90s Sunday and Monday.
A few warmer locations may even approach the century mark during
this time, though probabilities for reaching or exceeding 100
degrees is low (up to 10-30%). Though temperatures may not be
exceeding 100 degrees at this point, the proper heat safety
precautions should still be exercised as temperatures warm up.
Widespread Minor to at times locally Moderate HeatRisk will continue
through the next week. Global ensembles then show a deeper trough
affecting the Desert Southwest during the latter part of next week,
though considerable uncertainty exists. For now, the NBM shows a
cooling trend for the latter half of next week with the potential
for temperatures to cool back down to near normal readings along
with increased breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1831Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Typical diurnal wind tendencies will prevail through the TAF
period with sustained speeds mostly aob 8 kts. A few hours of
southerly winds are anticipated during the westerly transition
through midday. Light variability is also anticipated during the
overnight and morning hours. SCT to BKN high clouds are expected
through tonight before clearing.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will follow seasonal diurnal tendencies with sustained
speeds generally aob 12 kt, aside from some gusts up to 15-20 kts
in the afternoon at KBLH and evening at KIPL. SCT to BKN high
clouds are expected through the afternoon before clearing out in
the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue through at least the next couple of
days. Above normal afternoon temperatures will continue through
the remainder of the week as lower desert highs top out in the
low to mid 90s. Winds will remain light today with typical
afternoon breezes into the teens at times. A weak weather system
will lead to afternoon gusts increasing Friday to 15-25 mph for
many areas, while areas across Imperial County potentially see
gusts in excess of 30 mph Friday evening. Min RHs will continue to
fall into the 5-15% range each day.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Smith