Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280547
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Any lingering isolated snow showers across higher terrain and
  isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Plains will come to an
  end this evening.

- Dry and chilly conditions are expected tonight across the area
  with more abundant sunshine allowing for warming on Thursday.

- Increasing critical fire weather concerns beginning Friday
  through the weekend as our next weather system approaches.

- On and off snow chances over the high country through the extended,
  with more widespread meaningful snowfall spreading in for
  Sunday through Tuesday

- Cooler temperatures and rain and/or snow chances return
  across the plains around the Monday through Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates that southeastern Colorado
is in a northwesterly flow between ridging building into Nevada and
a trough across the central U.S. that is shifting east of the area.
The trough is associated with a closed upper low well northeast of
the area over Lake Superior. Meanwhile, the ridge axis to our west
extends from the Pacific NW southward to southern California.  In
the lower levels, a westerly 700mb flow is aiding orographically
induced clouds with a few isolated snow showers from the Sawatch
Range southeastward to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. At the
surface, A 1024mb high is centered over western Colorado and
building in from the west while a frontal boundary extends from
Kiowa County southwestward to Las Animas County. The boundary is
most pronounced by a dew point gradient and a wind shift from
south- southwesterly ahead of the front to northwesterly behind
it. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
along and east of the boundary with weak instability (SBCAPE
around 500 J/kg) pooled in this area.

This evening...the aforementioned front will begin to wash out and
become less pronounced into the evening. A mid-level ridge axis will
shift eastward with its axis centered over Nevada and Utah, helping
to allow for drier air to encroach from the west. This along with
subsidence as the high shifts eastward across Colorado will allow
for abundant sunshine today for the Plains, our eastern slopes, and
valleys. A few more isolated thunderstorms along the frontal
boundary in Bent/Prowers/Baca counties will be possible. In
addition, snow showers will wane for the  higher terrain from the
San Juans to the Sawatch to the Sangre de Cristos.

Tonight into Thursday...There is hi-res model agreement that the mid-
level ridge will become less amplified and flatten more as it moves
into the area. This will allow for the mid-level flow to become more
westerly overnight and west-southwesterly by Thursday evening. A
weak short wave will approach the San Juans and Sawatch Range late
in the day, but moisture should be too limited still with just some
increasing cloud coverage for these areas. In this pattern a cool
and mostly clear night can be expected tonight with some mid to high
clouds beginning to filter in from the west late in the day on
Thursday. For temperatures, lows tonight will range from the mid to
upper 20s across the southeastern Plains to the lower to mid teens
for the San Luis Valley and higher terrain. Temperatures will
recover nicely with more abundant sunshine on Thursday as the ridge
brings warm air into the area. Highs tomorrow are closest to the
National Blend of Models (NBM), ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s in the Plains of southeastern Colorado to the mid 50s in the San
Luis Valley to the 30s and 40s in most higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Thursday Night and Friday..

Models indicate that our flow aloft becomes southwesterly by
Thursday night, with the ridge axis passing overhead and an upper
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California
Coast. This pattern will keep overnight lows about 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than seasonal normals for most locations, with many of our
plains locations remaining well above freezing. Sky cover will
increase over the high country, and light snow showers will be
possible over the highest elevations of the San Juans, the La
Garitas, and the central mountains, though accumulations are
expected to be minimal on Friday. The main concern on Friday will be
with critical fire weather concerns on our plains. For now, these
conditions are limited to our far southeastern plains, where a Fire
Weather Watch has been hoisted for Friday afternoon for Baca and
eastern Las Animas counties. Southwesterly winds gusting to 35 mph
and relative humidities as low as 13% are expected Friday afternoon
over this area. Mostly sunny skies and daytime temperatures soaring
into the mid 70s (that`s around 8 to 12 degrees above normal
depending on location) on our plains will mean lots of drying for
our plains on Friday, which could set the stage for a more dangerous
situation this weekend.

Saturday and Sunday..

Our low temperatures on Saturday morning look to be just a few
degrees cooler than Friday morning, mainly due to the decrease in
moisture across the lower elevations. Most of our plains will start
out Saturday near freezing, and quickly warm into the low to mid
70s. As southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough axis
increases, increasing winds and increasing drying is expected across
our area for Saturday and Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected
over our southern mountains on Saturday, and critical fire weather
conditions are likely (70%) for portions of our plains, especially
south of highway 50, for Saturday and Sunday afternoon. With
potentially three days in a row of critical fire weather conditions,
Sunday could end up being a high fire danger day as the jet
approaches and winds gust over 30 mph across a majority of our
plains. Please avoid activities that could start a fire this weekend!

For the high country, snow spreads from the central mountains, La
Garitas, and San Juans eastwards and into the Sangres throughout the
day on Sunday. Snowfall totals are still very uncertain at this
time, though it does seems likely that the high country should see
meaningful snowfall with this event. Even uncertainty lies with how
the event will unfold as it moves into the lower elevations. For
now, models are holding off the cold front until sometime very late
Sunday night or even Monday morning, which will likely mean that
Sunday is warm and windy on the plains, though there is the off
chance that the front arrives early and brings rain and snow chances
to the Palmer during this timeframe.

Monday Onwards..

Again, current model solutions lean towards a Sunday night or Monday
morning cold frontal passage, which could mean more Monday morning
commute implications. It is too early to really decipher better
timing and snow totals, or even rain vs snow chances at this time,
as this system is not very well resolved at the moment. The only
consensus is that models seem to show two different lobes of low
pressure in the same trough axis that will interact with each other.
Time will tell how that interaction plays out, but it seems likely
that we will see a cool down, back into the 50s at least, for Monday
and Tuesday, and likely some rain and/or snow chances to start out
next week as well. Models also seem to be on board with pushing the
messy trough out rather quickly, bringing normal temperatures back
in possibly as early as Tuesday in some solutions, but definitely by
Wednesday if the majority is to be believed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. There will be
increasing mid to high level cloud decks overhead at all TAF sites
by tomorrow morning and through the evening hours. There is low
confidence of some patchy fog developing in the vicinity of KALS
during the early morning hours. If this occurs, it could temporarily
reduce VIS down to LIFR criteria. Winds will be light (less than 10
kts) and mostly diurnally influenced at all terminals through the
early morning hours and then become synoptically influenced, with
increasing winds becoming stronger and gusty out of the SSW-SW at
all terminals (with gusts up to 32 kts at KALS, 30 kts at KCOS, and
22 kts at KPUB), by later in the afternoon. They will begin to
weaken and return to being more diurnally influenced towards the
end of the forecast period.  -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...STEWARD


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