053
FXUS62 KRAH 111735
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid airmass holds in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

* Widely scattered showers and storms late this afternoon, far less
  than what has been seen as of late

* Near normal overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals stubbornly persistent low
cloud cover across portions of central NC. While all of the morning
fog has long since mixed out, areas along and south of US-64 remain
mostly cloudy while sky cover to the north is relatively limited.
This made for a rather atypical temperature distribution across the
area earlier this morning with the Triad actually seeing the warmest
temperatures in the CWA. This has since normalized a bit with temps
area-wide in the mid 80s. The exception remains the Sandhills where
temps remain in the upper 70s/around 80 as of 1pm. Despite the
varying amounts of cloud cover across the area, dewpoints are
relatively uniform in the low to mid 70s.

The plume of elevated PW`s has shifted east, with widespread values
no longer in the 2 to 2.25 inch range across central NC. Rather,
PW`s range from about 1.5 inches in the western Piedmont to around
1.9 inches across the southern Coastal Plain. The weak wave
responsible for Thursday`s shower and thunderstorm activity has
shifted offshore, and WV imagery reveals an abundance of mid level
dry air and shortwave ridging building into the Mid Atlantic (in
response to a deepening trough over MN/IA). While it`s hard to
completely rule out all shower/thunderstorm activity today, the odds
certainly seem in favor of a quieter, less convectively active
afternoon across the region. 00Z and 12Z HREF both indicated some
widely scattered activity later this afternoon, but with no clear
focal area for development. If anything, perhaps the lingering cloud
cover across the area will serve up some weak differential heating
boundaries upon which a few showers and storms could develop.  A
small cluster of storms (albeit weak) has formed in eastern Guilford
Co, perhaps on the edge of where we saw fog earlier today. Either
way, I`ll hang onto some very low PoPs in the 10-20 percent range
through 00Z, then back down below 10 percent for the
evening/overnight hours. Should any showers/storms develop, they`ll
be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain but widespread
flooding shouldn`t be a concern given limited areal coverage.

In terms of temps tonight, look for lows to bottom out in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

* Similar airmass in place across the region on Saturday, with
  scattered showers and storms expected

* Temperatures reaching the mid 90s Saturday afternoon

Not much change in the atmosphere for Saturday, with a nearly
identical distribution of PW`s across the region (1.5" NW, close to
2" SE). Weak Piedmont troughing at the surface in response to weak
northwesterly flow aloft should be a trigger for afternoon shower
and thunderstorm development across the area tomorrow, although
there will still be an abundance of dry air in the mid levels to
overcome. With plenty of MLCAPE on offer around 2000-2500 J/KG and
sufficient moisture in place, one would expect at least some
thunderstorm development although they should be short lived given
weak steering flow. 12Z HREF confirms the idea of more areal
coverage of showers and storms compared to today, but still a far
cry from earlier this week. PoPs will range from 20-40 percent
tomorrow, peaking from 20Z-00Z, then tailing off after sunset.

Temps on Saturday should be on par with today`s, with highs in the
low to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Given the
continued period of dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, look for
afternoon heat indices to eclipse 100 degrees in many locations
although they should fall short of heat advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

* Daily diurnal showers and storms return, with highest confidence
  in the Mon to Wed time frame

* Heat and humidity much of the week, with heat indices highest Sun
  and Mon in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

After a brief reprieve in our storm chances, it would appear that an
uptick in scattered showers and storms are in the offing for the
long term. A cold front and attendant trough over the Great Lakes to
OH valley region Sun will gradually slide south and east into the
middle of next week. The front will not make it through, dying out
somewhere near central/southern VA. But the proximity of the
trough/front being close to central NC, along with precipitable
water values increasing once again to 2 to 2.25 inches, will favor
increasing shower and storm chances each afternoon and evening Mon
into Wed. After Wed, the Bermuda high will extend its influence,
with persistent warm and moist southerly flow. With the absence of
any large-scale forcing these days, storm chances may lessen but
will still be above climo with the moist and unstable airmass in
place. A late-week cold front sometime Fri-Sat will also try to
approach, which should keep rain chances on the higher end. Any
storms over saturated soils will risk the potential for flash
flooding, especially over the Piedmont.

As for temperatures, it appears warmest Sun and Mon in the low to
mid 90s. Heat indices during this time will range from the upper 90s
to lower 100s. A few locales in the Triangle and Sandhills region
could briefly reach heat advisory criteria of 105, but will let
later forecast shifts evaluate further. Rain chances being high
around the middle of the week will keep temps warm and muggy but
lower in the 80s to near 90, before warming back up Fri in the lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

With the exception of some lingering MVFR cu in the Triad and at
FAY, all sites have seen their ceilings recover to VFR. For the
afternoon hours, expect another round of widely scattered afternoon
showers and storms across the area, although the areal coverage
should be very limited in nature. 12Z HREF doesn`t key in on any
given area for storm development and as such, I`m going to keep
any/all mentions of showers and storms out of the TAFs. Anything
that develops should be short lived, confined to approx 19Z-23Z, and
too isolated to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. After 00Z, expect
only a few high clouds at all sites through late morning. No clear
signal for fog/stratus development tonight so it has been omitted
from the TAFs.

Outlook: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return from Saturday
onward, as does the chance for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Leins