907
FXUS65 KREV 300907
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 AM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Generally mild temperatures and increased breezes continue today,
except cooler near the Oregon border. A dry cold front arrives on
Wednesday, bringing cooler weather across the region. Otherwise,
much of this week will be generally dry and seasonably warm as
temperatures rebound on Thursday. Shower chances and gusty winds
increase this weekend with the arrival of the next storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies, light winds and dry conditions will lead to cooler
temperatures this morning across the area, especially in the
valleys of western Nevada. However, temperatures warm up this
afternoon with sunny skies and breezy winds helping mix the
atmosphere. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal across most of
the region, except for the far northern portions of Washoe Co.
near the Oregon border and the Surprise Valley where temps will be
below average. This area is closer to the storm track over the
Pac NW resulting in cooler weather. Breezy winds return this
afternoon from the west with speeds between 10-20 mph and gusts up
to 30 mph. Stronger winds are expected at ridge level and in the
eastern slopes of area mountains. Lake waters may be a bit choppy
in the late afternoon and evening at the time of peak winds.

A dry cold front will be pushing south late this evening and
overnight. This brings northerly breezy winds tonight and cooler
weather Wednesday for the whole region, especially for the
northern (N. Washoe/Surprise Valley) and eastern
(Pershing/Churchill Co.) areas. Winds decrease overnight behind
the front becoming lighter during the morning hours.

A temperature rebound is expected on Thursday and Friday as fair
weather dominates the pattern. However, breezy conditions appear
to return again on Thursday with the approach of a shortwave
trough over OR. Conditions will be pretty much dry through
Friday, except for a slight chance of showers (10-20%) in the
Surprise Valley and northern Washoe near the OR border on
Thursday afternoon/evening.

This weekend brings plenty of uncertainty in the forecast among
the deterministic and ensemble members of the GEFS/ECMWF/CMC.
There is plenty of spread in the ensemble plumes and meteograms
to hint at a pattern in specific, but the trend indicates a
cooler, wetter and breezier weekend. Although, no significant
hazards/impacts are observed at the moment. Probabilities for QPF
amounts greater than 0.25 inches on Saturday are 5-20% for the
Sierra and W. NV, and 20-40% for the Surprise Valley and western
Lassen Co. By Sunday, probs are similar for W. NV, but increase
for the Sierra/Lassen/Surprise Valley and N Washoe near the OR
border to 30-60% per the NBM. Snowfall remains mostly limited to
the Sierra and NE CA, with probability for snow amounts greater
than 3 inches for the weekend are 20-40% for the Sierra peaks, and
5-20% for the communities in the area.

-Crespo

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds remain the main
hazard. Therefore, periods of light turbulence and localized wind
shear are likely in the vicinity of mountains. Winds will be
terrain-driven in the mornings, becoming from the west in the
afternoon with speeds 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Slightly
stronger winds possible over mountain ridges and in the eastern
slopes of mountains. A cold front tonight veers the winds to the
north with similar speeds. Winds slowly subside behind the front
after midnight.

-Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$