Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201727 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

With conditions improving across the region, went ahead and
cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. No other changes made to
the forecast at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Best forcing and moderate snowfall is moving into the eastern CWA,
with more light snow extending back to the Dakotas/Montana/Wyoming
border. BUFKIT profiles stay mostly saturated all day, with a broad
upper trough to the west migrating east with a noticeable PV anomaly
and wave evident upstream. Thus, looks like most of the day will
remain cloudy with continuous light snow, though not much additional
accumulation. The gradient will also continue to weaken, and blowing
snow is becoming less and less of an issue. Then we have a high that
moves in tonight, across central to southeast South Dakota. This
will leave most of the area with a light west wind. Will be a tricky
forecast as the recent snow cover will present us with very
favorable radiational conditions. With clouds sticking around most of
the day, we will also see little warming, so the starting point this
evening will only be in the single digits. Thus, could easily
drop into the teens below zero. This also gets us into wind chill
advisory criteria overnight. Once headlines from previous winter
weather have expired would be more comfortable with issuing fresh
wind chill advisories for tonight however.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The current active pattern across the region looks to continue into
the near future as west to southwest flow aloft dominates the
picture. Energy aloft is expected to continually reload the
western conus trof, with that energy then ejecting east across the
Rockies and into the plains. During the long term, the main
feature to affect our weather looks to come through Thursday
afternoon and night. All three deterministic models
(GFS/ECMWF/CMC) have latched onto a PV anomaly that crosses the
region during this time frame. The ECMWF/CMC are especially
bullish with POPs/QPF. Because of this agreement, and thus
enhanced confidence, did collaborate a bit higher POPs and QPF
for the event with surrounding offices. The rest of the forecast
looks to be mainly dry at this point, with another system expected
to remain south of the forecast area early this weekend.
Temperatures will favor colder than normal for most of the period,
especially given widespread new snow pack across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

An area of MVFR cigs across the far eastern CWA will slide
eastward through the early afternoon hours. Once these clouds exit
the area, VFR conditions will then prevail through midday




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.