Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 032324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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