Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 221150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE EVEN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY. IN FACT...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN EXISTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO IFR RANGE SO WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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