Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 152214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
514 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A
light snow will occur early this evening across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. While moderate
accumulations of lake effect snow are expected across portions
of the Western Adirondacks into Saturday. Otherwise fair weather
is expected through the weekend.


Light snow spreading into the southern most reaches of the
forecast area early this evening associated with a short wave
and area of low pressure located off the mid Atlantic coast. The
short wave remains progressive but does become negatively
tilted as it swing through and in response the surface low will
deepen as it heads northeastward. Only expecting light snow in
portions of the mid Hudson and northwestern Connecticut as the
heavier snow/bands remain to our south. Expected around an inch
in Litchfield County and less than an inch across portions of
Dutchess County. This snow will taper off later this evening.

Lake effect snows will develop tonight with accumulating snows
occurring mainly after midnight. Initially the snow is expected
across the western Adirondacks north of Route 28 and west of
Route 30. The bulk of the snowfall is expected to occur during
the overnight/early morning hours.

Not nearing as cold as last night but still below normal with
lows mainly in the teens.


The lake effect snows will shift southward Saturday morning as
a cold front moves and will diminish late in the morning into
the early afternoon as ridging builds in and disrupts the favorable
low level flow. Additional accumulations will be light. Fair
weather is then expected through Sunday the ridge shifts
eastward across the region as the upper flow become flat nearly
zonal across the eastern United States. Temperatures will remain
below normal with another cold night Saturday in the wake of
the cold front. Lows Saturday night will generally in the single
digits into the teens with some below zero readings across a
portion of the western Adirondacks.

Temperatures will moderate back to seasonable levels Sunday
night into Monday as warm front approaches. With this comes
chances for overrunning warm air advection precipitation. A
light snowfall is possible with it expected to become warm
enough Monday for some rain especially in the mid Hudson Valley
where it could reach 40 degrees.


Upper level flow will be fairly zonal across the region to start the
extended period, although a strong (yet fast moving) upper level
shortwave will be approaching for the middle of the week.  Ahead of
this approaching feature, some light precipitation will be moving
across the region for Monday night into Tuesday, although coverage
will be fairly spotty due to the surface features being weak.  With
a warming boundary layer, valley areas may generally see rainfall
(especially by Tuesday afternoon), with light snowfall for the
higher terrain and far northern areas.  Any snowfall amounts will
generally be an inch or less, as total QPF is very light. Lows on
Monday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with temps
rising late in the overnight. Highs on Tuesday will reach into
the 40s in many spots.

As the fast moving trough slides across the Northeast, a quick shot
of cold air looks to move across the area for Wednesday. Temps will
be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with breezy northwest winds.  Some lake-
effect snow will develop off Lake Ontario and produce some
accumulation for the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley
for late Tuesday night through Wed early. Lows on Wed night will be
much colder in the teens and 20s.

High pressure should allow for dry weather for much of Wednesday
night into Thursday with seasonable temperatures. The next storm
system looks to approach for some point late in the week and
into the weekend, as the models don`t agree on the exact timing.
This storm looks to pass to our west, so a warmup with a
changeover to rain looks to occur for most of the area as precip
moves through the region. While precip could start as some
snowfall, most areas should see a majority of the precip as
rainfall, as temps warm into the 40s by Friday.


Mid clouds are gradually thickening and lowering this afternoon as
moisture increases ahead of low pressure developing off the Delmarva
peninsula. It will be a close call with the dry air in place, but a
period of light snow is looking increasingly likely at KPOU/KPSF
mainly in the 22-01Z timeframe. Have placed prevailing MVFR
cigs/vsby with TEMPO IFR vsby for this timeframe. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. Some remnant lake effect bands
may bring a few snow showers to areas north of KPOU late in the TAF
period. Have included VCSH for this potential.

Winds will be light out of the south to southwest into late tonight
before they veer westerly late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds
may gust near 20 kt toward the end of the TAF period.


Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.


No hydrologic problems are expected into early next weekend. Ice
will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. Any snowfall
will be light with the exception of moderate accumulations of
lake effect snow across portions of the western Adirondacks into
Saturday morning.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ032-033.


LONG TERM...Frugis
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