Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 301041
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As a slow moving upper level low moves towards the area,
on and off rain showers are expected today through the weekend.
Along with plenty of clouds, temperatures will be a little cooler
than recent days.  Some clearing is expected by the early to middle
part of next week once the slow moving storm system moves away from
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 641 AM EDT...Large upper level low continues to be situated
over the central Ohio Valley. This system has been sitting and
spinning in nearly the same spot for the last 24+ hours. Ahead of
this system, upper level ridging extended from the western
Atlantic Ocean and back into the Northeastern US.

Despite the high upper level heights, a moist southerly flow
within the mid and upper levels has brought plenty of clouds into
the region. IR satellite imagery and surface observations shows a
large veil of mid/high level clouds are in place over the area.
The low-level flow continues to be out of the E-NE, which is
keeping it somewhat drier than if the flow was more out the SE, as
dewpoints remain in the 40s.

With weak disturbances pinwheeling around the upper level low,
plenty of rain showers have been ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic
and eastern Great Lakes. Some of these showers moving up from the
south have been grazing into the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson
Valley overnight, although the dry low levels has allowed some of
this precip to evaporate before it reaches the surface. The bulk
of the activity so far this morning has been west and southwest of
area over NE PA and central NY.

Into the day today, there will be a chance for some light rain
showers, mainly across southern areas.  Although the rainfall may
initially continue to fall as virga, the column should moisten up
enough for some showers to reach the surface. Decent warm air
advection/isentropic lift is expected to develop by later today,
which should allow for a more widespread and organized band of
showers to move up from the south by later this morning and into
this afternoon. The majority of these showers should be fairly
light in intensity, although cannot rule out some brief heavier
bursts by later today across far southern areas. While far
southern areas may pick up to a half inch of rain today, the bulk
of the region will see under a quarter of an inch.

High temps today will vary from north to south. While northern
areas may see highs in the low to mid 60s thanks to less precip
and thinner clouds, the rest of the area looks to see highs in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue to sit and spin over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley tonight, keeping the stagnant upper level
pattern in place. Although the best isentropic lift will be
lifting northeast of the area by tonight, still cannot rule out
some light rain showers from time to time thanks to moist cyclonic
flow in place. With plenty of clouds in place, there won`t be much
of a diurnal range, with temps tonight only falling into the mid
40s to mid 50s.

During the weekend, the upper level low will only be slowly
shifting eastward. It looks to move to near to near Detroit by
Saturday Night and towards western New York by Sunday Night. As
it slowly starts to head our way, the upper level ridge axis will
also shift eastward and away from the area. Moist cyclonic flow
will continue to allow for additional showers from time to time
over the weekend. At this point, have mainly just gone with chc
pops, as it is rather difficult to pinpoint any particular
time/area more prone for showers.

With the persistent southerly flow in place, PWAT values will
continue to rise and reach near 1.50 inches (especially for
southern areas) on Saturday. As a result, any shower can briefly
have some heavier rainfall, but these rates won`t be high enough
to cause any flooding concerns and any bursts of heavier rainfall
should be relatively short lived.

Outside of any rain showers, it should be cloudy, damp and fairly
cool. Highs on Saturday look to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Lows on Saturday Night look to be upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on
Sunday may be slightly higher with temps reaching upper 50s to mid
60s. Lows on Sunday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast starts out unsettled on Monday and Tuesday
with fair weather expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane
Matthew is forecast to be about 500 miles southeast of the
Carolinas on Thursday so no local impact from Matthew expected during
this extended period.

Have continued the forecast of unsettled weather for Monday and
Tuesday with a chance of showers during the entire period. There is
good model consensus showing the persistent upper level low
near Lake Ontario on Monday and over southern New England on
Tuesday. Cyclonic flow, upper level cold pool and plenty of moisture
should conspire to produce occasional showers across the forecast
area. Highs on Monday generally in the 60s to near 70 with some
upper 50s in the higher terrain. Lows Monday night are expected to
be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with highs on Tuesday in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Dry weather is then expected Wednesday and Thursday as a large area
of high pressure ridges in from northern New england. Highs on
Wednesday in the 60s to near 70. Lows Wednesday night are expected
to be in the 40s with highs on Thursday in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large, nearly stationary, low pressure system over Kentucky is
providing a deep southeasterly flow across the area. Main band of
rain stayed west of the TAF sites overnight, but should slowly
move eastward today. The combination of onshore flow and
precipitation should moisten the lower part of the atmosphere
later Today so this afternoon or evening expect MVFR Cigs/Vsbys
all TAF sites, which will continue through the overnight.

East to northeast surface winds are forecast to continue through
the TAF period /12Z Saturday/. Winds will generally be 5 to 10
knots, but there may be occasional gusts to 20 kts during the day
today.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather is expected over the next few days as a slow
moving upper level low moves across the area. As a result of this
storm, several days of cloudy weather is expected, with on and off
rain showers. The entire region is expected to see a wetting
rainfall through the weekend, with RH values each day generally
above 60 percent. E-NE winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected today and
tomorrow, with winds switching to the SE on Sunday at 5 to 10
mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
across much of the region. Precipitation departures this year have
been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest departures
across southeastern parts of the area. As a result, streamflow and
ground water levels have been running below normal.

Some needed rainfall is expected over the next few days, although
this rainfall will not be enough to end the drought by itself. A
slow moving upper level low will allow for on and off rain showers
through the weekend and possibly into early next week as a well.
Most locations will see at least a half inch of rainfall, with the
potential for over an inch across southeastern parts of the
region. Although rain may briefly fall moderate to heavy in
intensity, no flooding is expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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