Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 131810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREAS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE MIDWEEK AS IT
TURNS COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT...CLOUDS COVER THE FCA. THE WMFNT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA...AND FCA REMAINS IN SW WARM HUMID FLOW. A CDFNT WAS
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS. TD ARE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE
MOST PART AND PWAT VALUES ACROSS NYS 1.4 TO 2.0.

NUMEROUS -SHRA ARE OVER MUCH OF NYS W OF I-87 AND I-88 WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS. THE -SHRA WILL SPREAD OVER REST OF THE FCA IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOUR EXCPT PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN 3 MOST COUNTIES.

MARINE LAYER AIR HAS CREEPED UP THE HUDSON VALLY WITH STATUS OVC
CLOUDS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE ARND 500 J/KG.  12UTC RAOB AT ALB
INDICATED A CAPE OF 341 J/KG IF THE TEMP REACHED 88...HWVR WITH
CLOUDS MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN 70S TO ARND 80. ON ALB SOUNDING
THERE WAS A STRONG CAP AT 575HPA...WHICH IS ACTING TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION.

AT 850HPA 50KT JET OVER LWR GRT LKS...WHICH MDLS PROPAGATE
EAST...INTO FCA BY EVNG. AT 500HPA NAM HAS A 40-50KT JET EJECTING
ACROSS FCA WITH ASSOC CVA DUNG THE AFTN.

SO EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID EVNG -SHRA AND SCT TSTMS. WITH PWATS
AS HIGH AS THEY ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SHRA/TSTMS. FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN A FAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE
ATMOS...AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG AND NOT
LINGER FOR LONG IN ANY ONE PLACE.

TNGT THE WEAK CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE FCA FM THE NW...THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...STALLING ESE-WSW FM S NEW ENG INTO PA AS
IT BCMS PARALLEL TO THE 500 HPA FLOW. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE LARGELY
A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT DCR IN TD. OVERNIGHT A BUBBLE SFC HIGH
FORMS OVER NYS. -SHRA ACTIVITY WILL END FM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT..WITH MDL SUITE SUGGESTING SOME DRYING. HWVR MOST OF
THIS IS ALOFT...LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN LIGHT SFC FLOW...WITH
TD IN MID TO UPPER 60S...AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS THE DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN CROSS
THROUGH OUR AREA. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR...AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BEFORE THEN...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AND POTENTIALLY
FLASH FLOODING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FINAL STAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MIGRATES DOWN WELL
INTO THE CONUS.  THIS WILL USHER IN RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LARGE ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND +10C RESULTING IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND RATHER COOL NIGHTS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES.  THE HEART OF THIS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE PEAK HEATING.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...A CYCLONIC
ENTITY IS LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PER THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/ENTITY AND AMPLIFIES
THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  THIS IN TURN ATTEMPTS TO BRING
NORTHWARD MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME...WE WILL HOLD POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CHANCE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS.  THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE TO ABOVE +10C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON FROM VFR TO MVFR...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSIST TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE SHOWERS...HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WILL
AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES. AS THESE
SHOWERS APPROACH RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING FLYING
CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR. HAVE PLACED SHOWERS IN TEMPO GROUPS AT
THE TAF SITES AS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...A MARINE LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING LOW STRATUS
HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KALB...AND EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY AT TIMES...8-14 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 18-14 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
CREATE STAGNANT LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL FAVOR MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS/FOG.
WHILE CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KGFL...KPOU
AND KPSF.

FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AT KPOU AND KPSF. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. AT THE VERY LEAST...RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...POOR
DRAINAGE...LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER
THE SAME LOCATION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY URBAN LOCATIONS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END
AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO
RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/SNYDER







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