Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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189
FXUS61 KALY 292012
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Surface dew point boundary settling south and most areas will see
dew points fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s through the
evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will end over southern
areas and western New England early this evening. Once convective
clouds mix out, the sky should be mostly clear and there could be
some patchy fog but with the falling dew points, coverage of fog
may not be enough to acknowledge in forecast. Some trapped
boundary layer moisture could become some intervals of clouds in
some places. Still, with the gradual drying conditions and light
to calm winds, lows in the 50s to lower 60s...few mid 60s
southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Partly to mostly sunny Saturday morning until convective
temperatures are reached. Lingering boundary layer moisture and
the beginning advance of upper energy approaching from the west
could support an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm,
especially in the Schoharie Valley through the eastern Catskills.
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s, some 70s southern
Adirondacks.

Saturday night through Monday, upper energy and a developing
southern to southeasterly low level jet segment along with a
surface low developing along the old frontal boundary to our
south will support rain and scattered thunderstorms over our
region. Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north the heavier
and steadier rain gets but most areas should see enough rain to
help water everything that has been suffering during the dry
summer.

One area of enhanced rainfall is timed for late Saturday night and
Sunday. Then there may be a break and another area of enhanced
rainfall Sunday night into early Monday but again quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to the specifics of track and timing of
features supporting enhanced rainfall. There are some hints that
some of the rain Sunday could induce some diabatic cooling to the
north of the old frontal boundary and high temperatures with the
cloud cover and rain should be in the 70s. Monday, with the
prospect of rain exiting late, looks like highs a few degrees
warmer than Sunday.

If the rain tracks further south, then cooler and rainier to the
south and warmer with some possible breaks of sun in the north.
Still time to watch how everything evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday begins with a positively tilted upper level trough and
cyclonic flow at 850mb. Skies will likely be partly cloudy as models
show high RHs. Cold pool aloft and convergence near the surface
should lead to some shower or thunderstorm development later in the
day. Showers should be isolated as rising heights aloft should
gradually reduce instability. Lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in
the 70s to around 80.

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be fair and warm as high
pressure drifts across the forecast area. Lows in the 50s and 60s
with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Friday looks mainly fair and hot as strong warm air advection on the
back side of surface high pressure takes hold. An approaching cold
front may trigger some afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms
depending on timing/speed of front. Lows mainly in the 60s with
highs mainly in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will predominate during the next 24 hours. Some
patchy MVFR/IFR mist may form after 04Z/SAT at KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...and
have been included the the TAFS with IFR most likely at KPSF/KGFL.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have started to develop over
the terrain around the Hudson Valley. There is a low chance of one
of these storms affecting the TAF sites this afternoon and for
now have used VCSH to indicate timing of possible showers. KPSF
probably has the highest chance of a shower or storm today.

The winds will be northeast at 5-15 kts this afternoon. Expect
the winds to become light and variable early this evening. Winds
on Saturday will be 5-8kts from the north.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, and drop to 40 to 60 percent on Saturday. RH values
increase again to 80 to 100 percent Saturday night and with rain
expected Sunday, afternoon RH values drop to 70 to 80 percent.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 15 mph today
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

Rain fell across the southeast part of the forecast area last
night and early this morning. based on reports, most locations
received a quarter inch or less with some isolated reports around
three quarters of an inch. There were some scattered thunderstorms
over the southern adirondacks yesterday afternoon which produced
some local amounts around three quarters of an inch.

Dry weather returns through Saturday, with the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday night into Sunday
with the chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering into
early next week. Rainfall amounts in many areas could range
between a quarter inch and an inch through Monday with local
amounts possibly up to 2 inches. This long duration rainfall would
only produce minor rises in area rivers if this much rain does
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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