Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 291734
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of hot and humid weather today. The high pressure
system which has been in place across the region will weaken over
the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will approach
and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms especially
this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will produce heavy
downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection continues to fire up across area in moist unstable
airmass in place across region. Dew points are in the mid/upper
60s and SPC mesoscale analysis indicates surface based CAPE values
are ranging from around 1000 to about 3000 j/kg. Precipitable
water values are high with 1.25 inches on the 12Z/ALY morning
sounding. These values are forecast to rise to around 1.5 inches
this afternoon so some storms will produce heavy downpours. With
upper ridge across region flow is light and storms are moving
slowly northeastward. Have already issued a small stream flood
advisory for a portion of northwestern Albany County into east
central Schoharie County for convection caught on the
terrain/Helderbergs. Have focused likely pops across the southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley into the Schoharie Valley where the
greater coverage is expected and ran with mainly scattered
convection for the rest of the forecast area. Added enhanced heavy
rainfall wording for the thunderstorms into this evening.

Low clouds from the Connecticut River Valley eastward across New
England continue to gradually rise but are being very stubborn to
break up. Have adjusted temperatures especially in this area where
they are only in the 60s and 70s due to the clouds.

The high will lose its grip on the region tonight; heights will
fall as a upper level trough approaches. The focus for the greatest
chances/coverage for rainfall will shift to the area mainly south
and east of the Capital District as the precipitable water values
rise to about 2 inches as tropical and Atlantic moisture are drawn
northward into our region. Have enhanced wording for locally heavy
rainfall for this area overnight. Expecting mainly showers with
isolated thunderstorms possible through the overnight. Another
muggy night with lows only dripping back into the 60s with high
dew points and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries
are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active
than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east of the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to
500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any
lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather
expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry weather and more
seasonable conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds into the
northeast from the Tennessee and Ohio valley regions. Expect highs
on Tuesday to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with the lows Tuesday
night to be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tranquil conditions for the start of the long term portion of the
forecast, Wednesday-Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure extends
across the region from eastern Canada. This ridge will eventually
slide off the New England coast later Thursday, as an upper level
trough and attendant cold/occluded front approaches from the Great
Lakes region for Thursday night-Friday. This front may slow down and
potentially stall just south and east of the region by Saturday.

So, expect dry conditions for Wednesday into Thursday, with mainly
sunny/clear skies. Temperatures should be slightly above seasonal
levels, with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s, and overnight
low temperatures mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.

Clouds should increase late Thursday, and more so for Thursday night
into Friday. As the front moves across Friday and Friday night,
expect some showers or a period of rain. Chance POPS are indicated
at this time range, since there is some uncertainty as to how
widespread the areal extent of showers or rain will be.

Have kept chance POPS into Saturday for most of the region outside
of the western Adirondacks, as the front possibly slows its
east/southeast progress, and potentially stalls.

With the expectation for clouds and some showers, have indicated
cooler high temperatures for Friday-Saturday, with mid 60s to lower
70s, warmest in valley locations. Overnight low temperatures should
mainly be in the 50s, although may not fall much below 50 in some
portions of the immediate Hudson River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As an upper level trough begins to approach...some scattered showers
and thunderstorms have developed north and west of KALB/KGFL. These
thunderstorms will slowly move east and affect KALB and KGFL roughly
between 21Z-23Z but will be amended if movement changes or if new
thunderstorms develop closer to the sites. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in thunderstorms...with some variable
winds and gusts to perhaps 25 kt.

A few thunderstorms are south of KPSF and slowly building north and
east and may just miss KPSF...but close enough so that VCTS included
this afternoon and as long as the storms build slowly north...there
could be a period of thunderstorms between 21Z-23Z with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities. All the thunderstorms are quite a
distance from KPOU...so keeping rain out of KPOU until later
tonight...when mostly showers and a possible isolated
thunderstorm...after 06Z.

After about 00Z...larger area of showers and scattered thunderstorms
will gradually track through the region...affecting KGFL...KALB and
KPSF.  So...indicating VCTS through about 02Z-03Z with periods of
MVFR visibilities and ceilings in thunderstorms. Periods of showers
and MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible through 13Z-15Z at
KGFL...KALB and KPSF. Showers will linger at KPOU through 18Z.

Winds will be variable and gusty up to 25 kt in thunderstorms
through this evening. OUtside of thunderstorms...winds will be south
at up to 10 kt this afternoon. South to southeast winds should
decrease to less than 10 KT after sunset and continue light to near
calm through the night. Winds should become south to southwest at 6
kt or less after 14Z-15Z Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be another day of hot and humid weather today. The high
pressure system which has been in place across the region will
weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will
approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms
especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 45 to 60 percent
this afternoon...recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and drop
to 55 to 75 percent on Monday.

Winds are expected to be south at 5 to 10 mph today...light and
variable tonight...and southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high pressure system which has been in place across the
region will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder
of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are
expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal
as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy
downpours are expected with some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy
downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as
high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the
week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 29th...93 degrees 1931 Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 29th...88 degrees 2012 - Record broken with a temperature of
89 degrees at 127 pm EDT.
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 29th...96 degrees 1969 Records date back to 1949, however
data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11
CLIMATE...IAA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.