Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG


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