Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 242041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
241 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Upper ridge along the West
Coast slides inland by Sunday afternoon and the surface thermal
trough lies over Central Oregon. This leads to a very warm, but
mostly clear day on Sunday. Midlevel moisture coming up through
California will fire thunderstorms over Northern California and
Oregon that may drift into Southeast Oregon by Sunday evening. But
the better chance for thunderstorms is on Monday afternoon as the
trough off the California Coast fills and ripples across Oregon
late in the day as a short wave to help focus convection. Moisture
is quite high-based, so there is a good possibility of very gusty
winds with those storms. The difficult part may be residual clouds
from Sunday night convection may linger over part of the forecast
area on Monday limiting heating somewhat. But think the short wave
will overcome those issues, so have the best chance for precip and
thunderstorms over the Oregon Zones and the northern part of the
Central Idaho Mountains on Monday afternoon. Temperatures on
Monday will also be tricky because of the clouds. Oregon zones
will cool significantly from Sunday to Monday, but Idaho zones
will likely be nearly the same as Sunday, since the cooler air
will arrive later Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...The upper level trough
continues to trek through the area with scattered showers Monday
night, mostly in the higher elevations of SE Oregon and the Central
Idaho Mountains. Chance of thunderstorms through late evening with
gusty surface winds throughout SE Oregon and the Owyhee Mountains.
Outflow winds from well developed thunderstorms is looking to be the
main threat with this trough. Lingering moisture Tuesday will be
enough for thunderstorms to fire up again during the afternoon hours
and into the evening for the Central Idaho Mountains. A cool
northwest flow remains in the upper levels which will leave
temperatures just below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Another upper
level ridge begins to build over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday
night. Temperatures begin to slowly climb to just above normal by
Friday. Some disagreement among the models leaves confidence low for
the Saturday forecast with the ECMWF wanting to bring another upper
level trough through while the GFS holds onto the ridge a little

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds, variable 10 kts or
less. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL, northwest-north 5-15 kts through
12z Sunday then south-southwest 10-20 kts.




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