Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Upper level trough moving
across Northern Oregon this morning is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across Baker (Oregon), Adams,
Washington (Idaho) and Valley counties. Expect brief heavy rain
and gusty winds up to 45 mph with the stronger storms. This
activity is expected to end by 8 AM MDT. Upper level ridge will
reestablish itself over the region this afternoon for
southwesterly winds aloft. This synoptic setup will continue
through Sunday for above normal temperatures. Sunday`s
temperatures are expected to reach the low 70s in the valley
which is about 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday...Southwest Idaho and
southeast Oregon will stay under southwest flow aloft on the western
flank of an upper-level ridge. A deep upper-level low off the
Northwest Coast will spread clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the area on Monday. Showers will become widespread Monday
night and Tuesday with a weak Pacific cold front, but Wednesday
through Thursday the ridge will prevent showers from coming any
further south than northeast Oregon and central Idaho. Models go
their separate ways after Thursday, but they all support at least a
slight chance of showers Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will
average 5 to 10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms up to 12z across Baker County Oregon and the west-
central Idaho mountains. Local MVFR conditions are possible with
heavier showers. Isolated showers will continue after 12z north and
east of KMYL, ending by 18z. Surface winds will be variable 10 kts
or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft msl will be southwest 30-40 kts.

Outlook for Sunday...Mostly clear except for areas of mid-level
ceilings over eastern Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains.





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