Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 061558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH A PWAT OF AROUND AN INCH PER
BOISE SOUNDING THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
IS THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH EXTEND INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF BOISE. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AIR MASS IS DRIER
AND STABLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF BOISE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON...MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT
ERRATIC GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATELLITE IR AND SPLIT
WINDOW SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW
IDAHO...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SUMPTER TO MCCALL. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY TOO. MAIN CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS
TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS TODAY. FORECAST
CAPE UP TO AROUND 400 J/KG ACROSS THE ID MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHEAR
BODE WELL FOR PULSE STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO PW
AROUND 1.1 INCHES /NAM AT TWF/. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS DECENT UP TO
600 J SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY THIS TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY. A THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES /MAINLY SOUTHERN IDAHO/ SHOULD SEE
INCREASED WARMING AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



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