Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 270855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
255 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...A dry cold front is moving
through Southwest Idaho, currently located between Mountain Home
and Twin Falls. Winds behind the front are not impressive, only
gusting to around 20 mph in some locations. The winds will
increase through the day, however, becoming northwest 10-20 mph
with gusts to around 30 mph from near Mountain Home to the
Western Magic Valley (including Twin Falls and Jerome). The front
will herald cooler temperatures today with highs 5-10 degrees
below normal. An upper trough, which extends across the area from
British Columbia, is lacking in moisture this far south, but
enough to keep isolated showers in the forecast this afternoon
east and north of McCall and along the ID/NV border. A dry
northwest flow aloft will follow the exiting trough tonight, which
will transition to a dry zonal flow on Saturday. The gusty winds
this afternoon will diminish this evening, with generally light
northwest winds late tonight through Saturday. After a cool
morning, highs on Saturday will be warmer but still slightly below

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday...Upper level trough
remains over British Columbia on Sunday, but moves to Montana by
Monday. Could be a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountains Sunday afternoon and evening as the trough passes to the
north. Then slightly cooler and somewhat breezy on Monday in the
northwest flow on the back side of the trough. Then a major
pattern shift starts to develop, with strong ridging building into
the area for the rest of the week. Will see temperatures rise to
near normal on Tuesday, but well above normal later in the week.
Some of the lower valleys will have high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s by late in the week. Some threat that moisture might be
sucked up from the south around this ridge by late week, bringing
very isolated thunderstorms. Tried to minimize this threat in the
forecast since location of ridge axis is still somewhat uncertain
that far out.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mid-level clouds associated with weak, dry, cold
front, should move east of KTWF by early afternoon. Surface winds
west to northwest 10-15kts with gusts 15-25kts, especially from
KBOI eastward after 16Z. Winds aloft up to 10K feet MSL: west to
northwest 15-25kts.

Weekend outlook: Dry Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the mountains on Sunday afternoon and
evening as trough passes to north. Dry and cooler with northwest
surface winds 15-25kts on Monday.





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