Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 051649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO
OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...LEAVING US IN A MILD NW FLOW ALOFT. A
FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...5-8F WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER 5-8F WARMER FRIDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE SPREADS INLAND MAINLY ACROSS CALIF AND NEVADA AND
WINDS ALOFT CHANGE FROM NNWLY TO WNWLY.  AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
VERY DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL MOISTEN FRIDAY.  OCCASIONAL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS IDAHO ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND
BEYOND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE MID WEEK BUT THE DETAILS ARE DEFINITELY MUDDLED. THE GFS
BRINGS IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MENTION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME
SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP



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