Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 132337 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE TO
BREEZY LEVELS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND NOSE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCE VERY LOW AND
TEMPERATURES RATHER HIGH.

WEAK 250MB LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SABINE RIVER TO DAMPEN OUT OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR REGION. THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER LOW TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATER BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHOWERS
MONDAY. SEA BREEZE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING GOING TODAY
WITH THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOW A BIT LOWER OVERALL MOISTURE COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY SHOWING A
SLIGHT LOWERING OF MOISTURE. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO PESKY
SHOWERS SHOWING UP SOMEWHERE OVER KENEDY COUNTY MAYBE OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY BUT CHANCES TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR NORMALS. MAXIMUMS TO MAX
OUT NEAR NORMAL WITH CURRENT FORECAST LEANING TOWARDS THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS. AND AS WE GO INTO MONDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARM AS
SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO INCREASE JUST A BIT.

AS FOR FOG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT SOIL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO DRY OUT THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD SEE LESS SPREAD OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS OR LESS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE NORTHERN RANCHLAND WHERE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE WK.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE AND
KEEPING THE COLD FRONT ALMOST STATIONARY OVER NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WILL TRACK DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRI.
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THAT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
RGV.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND 100S TO THE WEST. LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
CONDITIONS CHANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO
INCREASE WED-THU ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET
INDICATED BY THE MODELS INCREASE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...KEPT BREEZE CONDITIONS INDICATED
IN THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WIND ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. MORE FINE TUNING ON THE WINDS IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS 850 MB RISE ABOVE 20 DEG CEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CWA WITH A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...THEREFORE...KEPT TRIPLE DIGIT OUT WEST
AND INCREASE JUST A FEW DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL INCREASE OUTFLOW
FROM CONV TO OUR NORTH TO INTERACT WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEABREEZE ACTIVITY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION
OF SOME SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI/SAT. INTO SUNDAY...RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LOWERING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BACK INTO THE NORMAL.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A VERY LIGHT ON SHORE FLOW AND
A VIRTUALLY FLAT SEA. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND TO
INCREASE MODESTLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA STATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND REMAIN BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY
TO AROUND 6 FEET AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT REMAIN DRY THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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