Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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301
FXUS64 KBRO 142025
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FOR REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THE WELL ADVERTISED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OR A
LITTLE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS HAVE APPROACHED ADVISORY CONDITIONS (30 SUSTAINED GUST
40+ MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS) ALONG THE U.S. 77/IH 69E CORRIDOR BUT
MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP JUST SHY AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE EVEN WITH FULL MIXING AND SUNSHINE. SLIGHT TURN TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON (AS LAND/SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
PEAKS) SHOULD NUDGE SPEEDS DOWN A TAD ALSO. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND MID
80S MOST INLAND AREAS.

BY TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLICES THROUGH NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS AND SURFACE LOW PRECEDES IT REACHING EAST TEXAS BY DAYBREAK.
AS IT DOES...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SLACKENS FROM WEST TO EAST
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KILL OFF WINDS FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY POPULATION.
THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS:  KEEP THE FOG AWAY (OTHER THAN SOME FUZZY
HAZE) BUT PERHAPS BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STREAMER CLOUDS FROM 3
AM TO 9 AM MONDAY...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN IN SHORT SUPPLY SINCE
EARLY JANUARY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE WINDS LAY DOWN BELOW 5
MPH EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIERS OF ZAPATA THROUGH BROOKS COUNTY.  CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY
OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MIXED ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOW CEILINGS CAN NUDGE INTO THE AREA. WILL
DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO DECIDE.  WITH THE MODIFIED AIR
MASS...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 60S COAST LOOK REASONABLE.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CRUISES INTO LOUISIANA AND THE SURFACE
LOW EXITS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING INTO
MOST OF TEXAS. ONLY MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW IN THE 850-925MB LAYER AFTER 9 AM EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...PERHAPS NUDGING
90...FROM WESTERN CAMERON/WILLACY THROUGH THE MID/UPPER VALLEY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FOR THE LOWER VALLEY...ALONG/EAST OF U.S.
77...MORNING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TEND TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON AND GIVE THE ATMOSPHERE NO TIME TO GET INTO THE
DOWNSLOPE ACT.  BUT FULL SUNSHINE AFTER MORNING CLOUDS MIX OUT
SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO PEAK NEAR 80 EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES WHERE
INFLUENCE OF MID 60S SURF TEMPERATURES AND MID TO UPPER 60S GULF
TEMPERATURES FARTHER OUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT NIP IN THE AIR.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND ONLY MODEST DRYING FROM THE WIND SHIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE VALLEY POPULATION.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE FOG...AND FOR NOW KEP
MENTION OUT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY MORNING BUT RIGHT ON OR JUST A HAIR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY...50 WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LITTLE VARIATION FOR THE
LONG TERM AS 12Z MODEL PACKAGE REMAIN IN GOOD CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW TIGHT CLUSTERING THROUGH
FRIDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT SPREAD NEXT WEEKEND. 500MB FLOW CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AND A WARM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ITS THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS
MAINTAINING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING OUR REGION
RAIN FREE OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARMEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK
TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD AND
850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C FRIDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
MID AND UPPER VALLEY MAY SEE SOME LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP THE COASTAL
COUNTIES SLIGHTLY MORE TEMPERATE THUS HAVE LOWERED PREVIOUS HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENJOY.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF
DOING ITS JOB THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS IN
CHECK...GENERALLY 13 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
NEAR 4 FEET. LAGUNA MADRE A DIFFERENT STORY AND HAVE HOISTED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH ENOUGH OF THE BAY LIKELY HAVING A FAIRLY ROUGH
GO ON A NICE VALENTINE`S DAY OUTING SUNDAY. WINDS LITERALLY VARY
FROM THE WEST SHORE TO THE EAST SHORE BY 6 KNOTS BETWEEN PORT
ISABEL (WINDIER) AND SOUTH PADRE (LIGHTER). OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED
CAUTION FOR THE 20-60 NM LEG WHERE MARINE LAYER A BIT LESS
EMPHATIC.

FOR TONIGHT...CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL
FLIP FOR THE GULF WATERS WHILE LAGUNA QUIETS DOWN...A BIT...BUT
STILL KEEPS A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINANT.

BY MONDAY...STILL MAY NEED CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE 20-60 MPH LEG
THROUGH MORNING AS THE GRADIENT IS LAST TO LEAVE THERE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS LAY DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ELSEWHERE DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET.  SEAS WILL DIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GULF AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  HAVE
MAINTAINED 2 TO 3 FEET SEAS AREA WIDE BUT THESE MAY DROP TO SLIGHT
LEVELS (2 FEET OR LESS EVERYWHERE) BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...SETTING UP
FOR A PRIMO FISHING MORNING ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BROADEN AND SPREAD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE SPREADS EAST AND PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SERIES OF WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING WINDS AND SEA
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE
MID VALLEY (HIDALGO/BROOKS) IN CASE WINDS CAN PICK UP TO 25 MPH
WHILE HUMIDITY DIPS FURTHER. AS OF 1 PM SITTING ON THE EDGE...AND
CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO COVER THE MARGIN.  FROM
STARR THROUGH JIM HOGG/ZAPATA...WINDS ARE LOWER BUT HUMIDITY LOWER
AS WELL AND ONE FIRE IS BEING WORKED IN THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WHERE THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT HUMIDITY WILL FALL TOWARD 20
PERCENT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW IF DRY AIR MIXING AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OVER PERFORM WHAT`S IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  79  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          62  80  58  79 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            61  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              62  87  59  85 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      58  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  72  61  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM



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