Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 161130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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