Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 192343
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak and dry cold front will cross the area tonight with
little fanfare. Other than slightly cooler temperatures on
Friday, high pressure will remain the dominant influence on
regional weather conditions through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures remaining well above late October norms. The next
chance for widespread rainfall occurs by Monday night into
Tuesday of next week as slow moving low pressure moves into the
northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 706 PM EDT Thursday...Surface cold front with little fan
fair is approaching our western cwa this evening. This front
will increase mid level clouds this evening and produce a wind
shift from southwest to northwest after 06z tonight. These winds
will help in the development of moderate 925mb to 850mb cold air
advection with progged 850mb temps dropping between 5-7c by
Friday. The combination of winds...clouds...and advection makes
for a challenging temp forecast tonight. Have increased hourly
temps by 3 to 5 degrees thru this evening based on crnt
values...but kept early morning lows the same...given the
advection. Thinking lows range from the mid/upper 30s
dacks/northeast kingdom to near 50f champlain valley near the
warmer water. Otherwise...no rain is anticipated with boundary.

Another very mild and breezy day playing out across the area as
high pressure retreats offshore and a weak cold front
approaches from the northwest. Many areas have climbed into the
60s to around 70 this afternoon (71 at KBTV as of 200 pm) and
expect a few more spot low 70s readings in the warmer locales of
the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley before days end. The
front is moisture-starved and other than scattered high cloud
cover no precipitation is expected tonight as gusty southerly
winds abate and veer to light west to northwesterly by sunrise
Friday. Low temperatures remain on track to range through the
40s with a few 30s in favored northern mountain hollows.

Another outstanding day on tap for Friday with wall to wall
sunshine on light west/northwest flow as our recent semi-
permanent eastern CONUS high pressure is dampened slightly
behind tonight`s front. Mean 925 mb temperatures fall into the
8-10C range by mid-afternoon supporting blended bias-corrected
highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s...about 4 to 8 degrees
cooler than today though still some 5 to 10 degrees above normal
levels for this time of year. Then more clear/quiet conditions
expected by Friday night as high pressure remains in control.
Low temperatures will show somewhat higher variability (30s to
lower 40s) as radiative processes will have more influence
under lighter synoptic wind regime, allowing drainage winds to
keep elevated slopes milder and river valleys/hollows cooler in
general.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Dry quiet warm weather will continue
for Saturday and Saturday night with surface and upper level
ridges in place. No significant precipitation is expected.
Temperatures will continue to be about 15 degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Surface ridge will shift eastward on
Sunday and a frontal system will approach from the Great Lakes
region. Southwesterly flow ahead of next approaching system will
aid in bringing temps up even further. A shortwave trough will
move across eastern Canada on Monday and will have a chance for
afternoon showers. A more pronounced large upper level trough
approaches for the Tue into Wed timeframe. Have showers likely
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures continue
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR through the period as dry surface
front crosses the area. Gusty south/southwesterly winds into the
15-25 kt range as the front approaches overnight. Few high
clouds will give way to SKC from 06Z onward behind frontal
passage as winds veer to west/northwesterly from 5 to 10 knots
into Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special
weather statement for Friday to bring awareness of breezy winds
and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials
advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday
across northern NY and VT. A dry frontal passage tonight will
shift the winds to the northwest on Friday between 10 and 15 mph
with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity
values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with lowest values
and strongest winds across portions of central and eastern VT on
Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with the recent dry
weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as leaves, grass,
and small brush to become very dry. All these factors combine to
increase the potential for any fires that do start to spread
quickly and become difficult to contain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through tomorrow (Friday, 10/20) as
technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG/Verasamy
FIRE WEATHER...
EQUIPMENT...BTV



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