Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM


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