Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 050819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS
AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG).
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



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