Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.