Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 300306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1103 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR ECHOS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY VIRGA AS MOST OF THE ECHOS AREN`T BEING REPORTED AS PRECIP.
THUS I`LL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT THEN THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE REST OF
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP
OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF
THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON


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