Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180335
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

RADAR ECHOES BOTH FROM ROUNDUP TO COLSTRIP AND AROUND BAKER ARE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND AS OF MID EVENING...AND IT SEEMS NOT MUCH REACHED
THE GROUND UNDER THEM TO BEGIN WITH. WE THUS DROPPED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND INSTEAD WENT WITH A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION IN SOUTH-
EASTERN MT. WE ALSO EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AROUND BAKER AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND. WE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN PLAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR IT STILL
IN RECENT HRRR RUNS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALMOST 10 KT THOUGH AS OF
03 UTC AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES THEN NEAR-SURFACE FLOW MIGHT BE
TOO TURBULENT FOR VISIBILITY TO LOWER VERY FAR OR FOR VERY LONG.

WE ALSO INCREASED LOWS A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MT AND MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TIED TO WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WITH TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. HRRR IS INDICATING FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS POOLED OVER THESE AREAS. DID INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES
IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE FINER DETAILS MAY DIFFER...THE OVERALL UNSETTLED
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES. AFTER THE RIDGING FRIDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC JET STARTS MOVING INTO THE STATE. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. IN RESPONSE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING
FIRST IN THE GAP AREAS...THEN SPREADING OUT TO AROUND BILLINGS.
MEX MOS FOR LIVINGSTON HAS WINDS INCREASING INTO 30 MPH TO NEAR 40
MPH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL KEEPING GRIDS SUB ADVISORY GIVEN
THIS IS STILL FOUR DAYS OUT...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...LOOKING
AT ANOTHER WIND EVENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
STILL BRING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA...POPS CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL ZONES STILL LOOK TO GET RAIN. FARTHER EAST WARDS MILES
CITY AND BAKER...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER...MAY SEE
SOME FREEZING RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MORE NORTH WESTERLY...SO
NOT AS MUCH OF AN UP SLOPE FLOW EVENT. THINGS BEGIN TO TAPPER
OFF...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA...GIVING THE AREA A SHOT AT
MORE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE
COLDER...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A SHOT AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS...WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW....HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KMLS SOUTH
AND EAST. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/038 023/038 027/041 027/046 033/045 026/038 022/033
    00/B    00/B    11/B    13/W    32/W    21/N    23/J
LVM 024/042 024/040 027/043 028/046 035/045 022/039 023/035
    01/N    11/N    21/B    24/W    43/W    21/N    33/J
HDN 018/037 015/037 020/040 021/044 029/043 021/037 020/034
    10/B    00/B    01/B    13/W    33/W    21/B    22/J
MLS 018/038 019/037 021/040 022/042 029/040 025/036 020/031
    10/B    00/B    11/B    13/W    22/W    11/B    11/E
4BQ 017/041 017/040 019/041 022/044 030/042 024/037 019/033
    10/B    00/B    11/B    12/W    23/W    21/B    22/J
BHK 016/036 019/037 019/040 021/042 026/037 021/033 017/027
    11/M    10/B    01/B    02/W    22/W    11/N    11/B
SHR 012/041 015/038 020/040 019/043 030/042 022/037 019/033
    10/B    10/B    11/B    13/W    34/W    32/J    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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