Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290954
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
354 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ARRIVES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT
BILLINGS WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED CHANCES SPREADING EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT YELLOWSTONE
COUNTY WESTWARD WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER EAST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS GUSTY BUT WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH OUR EAST AS IT WILL BE
MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
FOR BILLINGS AND MILES CITY. THE RECORD FOR MILES CITY TODAY IS
101 WITH THE BILLINGS RECORD AT 97 DEGREES.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY BRINGING AN
AREA OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY AS READINGS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

POST FRONTAL ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE
BACKING FLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGS A WEAK DOWNSLOPE PATTERN WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DRIVING THE BACKING IN
THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK BUT UNDERGOES FLUCTUATIONS IN ITS DEPTH AND LOCATION AS
ENERGY FLOWS THROUGH THE TROUGH. ONE OF THESE FLUCTUATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHES THE LEESIDE TROUGH FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS DIFFER WEATHER
THIS INDUCES A LIGHTER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OR A WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HOW CAPPED TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON
WEDNESDAY. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SUNLIGHT AS THE FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD ADVECT SMOKE FROM CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE AREA BUT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DENSE AS THIS
PAST WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY THE
EJECTING ENERGY TRAVELS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MIGRATES THE
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS A STRONG CAP WHICH DOES PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES SO
EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE BELOW 80 TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

OCCASIONAL SMOKE IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IMPROVING AIR CONDITIONS. KMLS
AND KBHK WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING PERIODS OF MVFR
DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY AND THESE IMPACTS WILL LAST LONGER INTO
THE DAY COMPARED TO KBIL KSHR AND KLVM. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KBIL WITH
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO BE INCREASING ESPECIALLY
FOR KLVM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 067/087 052/081 054/087 057/083 053/077 049/075
    0/K 22/T    20/U    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 092 060/085 045/079 047/084 049/080 045/074 041/074
    1/N 22/T    20/N    00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T
HDN 099 064/089 053/083 053/091 056/087 052/081 049/079
    0/K 22/T    20/U    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 101 066/093 059/082 057/091 059/088 055/083 051/080
    0/G 02/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 099 062/093 057/081 056/091 059/089 056/085 053/079
    0/K 02/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 098 062/095 055/081 056/091 057/089 054/085 052/079
    0/K 02/T    30/N    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 097 058/092 050/082 049/090 053/087 049/082 047/078
    0/K 12/T    20/U    01/U    11/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.