Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 141106
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
406 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN STATES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. ONE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. RADAR
HAS BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LIVINGSTON VISIBILITY
HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1 1/4 MILES AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY OVER
BILLINGS HAS ONLY BEEN A TRACE SO FAR. THIS MAY BE DUE TO A
20-30KT WESTERLY WIND NOT FAR FROM THE SURFACE WHICH IS BEING
NOTED ON THE VAD WIND PROFILER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
HIGH CHANCE FOR MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND MONDAY BUT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG OF GUSTS TODAY AS WERE REPORTED YESTERDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE MORE OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA TOO WELL BUT GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HARLOWTON WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...BUT 50KT 700MB WINDS ARE NORTHWEST WHICH IS NOT
OPTIMUM AS WELL FOR HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
WINDS IN AN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC FOR PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WILL BE THE
NEW NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE
WESTERN US.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MONDAYS DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A RAIN OR SNOW MIX. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF
BILLINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
TUESDAY MORNING.

MAIN RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES...CALMER CONDITIONS...AND LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY WARM AGAIN AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EASILY HIT THE LOW 60S.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF
THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGH POPS FOR WESTERN FACING SLOPES
AND LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN CENTRAL ZONES AROUND BILLINGS.
GIVEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH...BUMPED POPS UP IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY...THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THOUGH MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
IMPACTING KBIL AROUND 12Z....AND KSHR AND KMLS AROUND 14Z. BY 16Z
GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH 30 TO
40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/055 038/062 038/061 043/062 037/058 036/053
    3/W 23/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    21/N    11/B
LVM 050 039/054 040/057 039/058 042/058 035/053 034/049
    4/W 34/W    41/N    11/N    12/W    31/N    11/N
HDN 055 033/055 034/064 034/064 037/065 034/061 032/056
    3/W 24/W    33/W    10/B    11/E    21/N    11/B
MLS 050 030/050 029/056 032/058 036/061 037/055 033/052
    2/W 14/W    24/W    20/B    11/B    31/N    11/B
4BQ 050 031/050 030/060 032/063 037/066 035/057 032/053
    2/W 24/W    33/W    10/B    01/B    31/N    11/B
BHK 045 028/046 027/048 029/051 035/057 035/049 031/047
    1/E 14/W    24/W    20/B    01/B    31/N    11/B
SHR 050 030/053 032/060 032/061 035/064 031/057 029/053
    3/W 36/W    42/W    10/B    11/B    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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