Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 261544

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
944 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016


Short range models dragging a bit of light precip through
northwest zones into Musselshell county over the next couple of
hours. While not expecting much more than a sprinkle out of this
added low pops into the forecast through noon to cover this, as
well as into the mountain zones. Still seeing a bit of shallow fog
along the lower Yellowstone river valley around Miles City which
should burn off by 10 am or so. Otherwise ridge builds in aloft
today for a very mild and dry afternoon with highs in the lower
70s across the area. Will continue to see southwest wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph for western foothills today due to lee side trof
affects. Periods of denser Cirrus cloud cover will move through
the area from time to time today, but most of this high cloud
cover will be pretty thin so expect a good deal of sun this
afternoon. Chambers


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Tranquil weather will continue through the short term. High
pressure ridging will be well established across the forecast area
today as the axis will be situated over the northern Rockies this
afternoon. An upper low off the California coast will continue to
stream mid and high level clouds across the area today, but
overall a partly to mostly sunny day is expected. This combined
with a west-southwest downslope flow will allow temperatures to
warm well above normal with readings in the upper 60s to lower

The ridge axis gets shifted east on Thursday in response to a
disturbance that moves into the Pacific northwest. Most of the
energy will stay to our north across the northern portions of the
state but it will bring a chance for rain and snow showers to the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains Thursday night. This disturbance will
also bring a Pacific front across the area Thursday evening/night
bringing cooler temperatures for Friday. Compressional warming
ahead of the front Thursday will allow temperatures to warm into
the lower to middle 70s, which is about 20 degrees above normal
for this last week of October. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Friday starts off quiet with surface high pressure the region in a
post frontal environment and upslopish pressure gradients will
cause temperatures to be around 15 degrees cooler than Thursday.
Shortwave ridging over the area is quickly beaten down Friday
evening as a shortwave tracks into southwest Montana moving across
southern Montana early Saturday. This feature will have an
injection of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Seymour which
will aid chances for showers and moisture amounts. Pressure
gradients remain upslopish which will aid rainfall amounts over
the foothills Saturday morning.

Another round of ridging arrives Saturday night but pattern is
becoming progressive as a series of disturbances are ejecting out
of a dissipating upper low over the eastern Pacific. For Sunday
this energy is progged to move north of the area to increase wind
and bring some mountain showers but downslope will dominate the
lower elevations.

Sunday night and Monday the remnants of the upstream low move
across the area with another front dragging down into the area
with not much airmass change but a return to the upslopish
gradients. This boundary retreats northward Monday afternoon
bringing some isentropic lift. Not much upper level support Sunday
night and Monday but will be some shower activity.

Drier pattern sets up middle of next week as flow becomes more
zonal with a new upper level low getting established over the
eastern Pacific. Borsum



High level cloud cover will be over the area through the period
but VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be increasing at KLVM
today with winds gusting 25 to 35 kts. Chambers



    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 071 050/074 050/059 042/058 041/063 041/056 037/056
    1/B 00/B    13/W    63/W    11/B    23/W    11/B
LVM 070 048/074 045/058 039/058 042/061 040/053 037/054
    1/N 00/N    15/W    73/W    12/W    33/W    12/W
HDN 070 043/077 045/062 041/060 039/065 039/058 034/057
    1/B 00/U    12/W    62/W    11/B    23/W    11/B
MLS 068 044/074 047/061 041/055 039/061 039/053 034/054
    0/B 00/B    01/B    52/W    11/B    24/W    11/B
4BQ 070 043/077 047/064 042/058 039/065 040/057 033/057
    0/B 00/U    01/B    42/W    11/B    23/W    11/B
BHK 066 041/073 045/060 038/051 035/058 036/051 030/053
    0/B 00/B    01/B    53/W    11/B    33/W    11/B
SHR 071 041/076 045/063 038/059 036/065 038/057 031/056
    0/B 00/U    02/W    52/W    11/B    22/W    11/B




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