Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241711
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1211 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. A cold
front will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night as
weak low pres developing over the Gulf of Maine tracks NE toward
the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM Update: The cold front has stalled in northern
Aroostook County. This front will become a warm front this
afternoon and evening. Overrunning high clouds are already
streaming into the area. Precipitation with the warm front will
be confined to northern Aroostook where snowfall amounts of up
to an inch may occur later this afternoon into the evening.
Elsewhere, sunshine is expected to continue towards Bangor and
the coast with highs reaching the lower 40s. For tonight, most
of the precip with the warm front will be over, but a warm layer
aloft may generate spotty freezing drizzle and sleet in
northern Aroostook. The overall trend for temperatures tonight
will be steady to rising and all areas will be above freezing by
late evening through the remainder of the night. This will set
the stage for a mild Saturday with highs in the 50s for the
southern half of the forecast area.

Orgnl Disc: Thickening cldnss is xpctd across the N with sct
flurries and a chc of sn shwrs by this aftn and erly eve across
the far N. Meanwhile, partly cldy to perhaps mclr skies are
xpctd for Cntrl and Downeast areas. Temps will be on a warming
trend with both fcst highs tdy and lows tonight some 5 to 10 deg
warmer than ystdy and this current ngt. Winds will slowly
become breezy from the SSW later tdy and cont so ovrngt with
wind speeds increasing ovr hi trrn later ovrngt as a weak to mdt
llvl jet aoa 925mb moves into the Rgn from the W.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures a bit warmer Saturday as a cold front approaches.
Looking for highs ranging from the low 40s far north to the low
50s near the coast. There will be a chance of showers Saturday,
and airmass will be warm enough to where any light precipitation
that does fall will be rain.

Cold front moves through Saturday night, but there`s not a lot
of moisture to work with, and any precip totals look to remain
under a quarter inch. Snow will become the more common precip
type later Saturday night onward, but went with just chance
PoPs and minimal precip totals, and any snow accumulation will
be quite light. The chance of snow showers late Saturday night
through Sunday night will mainly be over Northern Maine rather
than Downeast.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued cold into Monday with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
High pressure moves overhead Monday night and east of us Tuesday
as the next system approaches. The center of the low pressure
looks to pass well north of us in Quebec. The system for us
doesn`t look particularly strong, with just a chance of rain and
snow. Cold front moves through sometime around Wednesday with
cooler air Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system possible
around Friday, but again, looks warm enough for mostly rain.

Bottom line, although the pattern is fairly active and
progressive, no significant snow events in sight. Interestingly,
if it doesn`t snow any more than 0.5 inches through the end of
the month, it will end up as the least snowy November on record
for Caribou. Caribou has had 0.9 inch and the least snowy is
1.5 inches. Interesting, considering it`s actually been colder
than normal this month.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd across the TAF sites tdy and tngt,
xcpt MVFR intervals of bkn-ovc SC cld cvr xpctd across far Nrn
TAF sites such as KCAR and spcly KFVE.

SHORT TERM: Saturday through Monday we are looking for generally
MVFR over Northern Maine. South of KMLT, it looks generally VFR
except for a possible period of MVFR around Saturday night.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: We lowered the SCA for seas that was in effect for
our outer MZs prior to this fcst update in favor for a full SCA
for both SSW to SW winds and seas xpctd to begin this eve for
all of our waters and cont thru tngt. Went with a blend of WW3
and NWPS for fcst wv hts tdy and tngt with primary wv pds
beginning arnd 10 sec tdy then diminishing to 6 sec ovrngt tngt
as the shorter SW wind fetch increases with max wind wv hts 6
to 9 ft by erly Sat morn.

SHORT TERM: Small craft winds and seas persisting into Saturday,
easing below small craft levels late Saturday. Offshore small
craft winds developing during the day Sunday, as well as seas to
around 5 feet. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night, there is the
potential of high end small craft winds and seas to around 10
feet.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN/MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...VJN/MCW/Foisy
Marine...VJN/MCW/Foisy



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