Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO
OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAD THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO QUEBEC W/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LAP SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOWING THINGS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SB/MU CAPES RANGING FROM
600-1000 JOULES AND LIS DOWN BELOW 0. K INDEX ALREADY AT 35. ALL
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO GO EVEN MORE W/THINGS DESTABILIZING EVEN
FURTHER.

FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD
SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL
W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF
MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL
REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A
BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES
AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN
A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN
DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN
PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY
THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING
OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY
SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES
HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION
TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED
WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL
MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN
TO DOWNEAST MAINE.

AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF
OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST
PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS
SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL
DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED
UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE
FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND
VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF
SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN.
ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW
WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT
NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



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