Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 052244
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
544 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SAT
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH LATE
SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
545PM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A LOW MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. THE CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRACKING WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHATS LEFT OF HI/MID CLD CVR SHOULD CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SE OF THE
FA OVRNGT...WITH CLRG ADVCG FROM NRN ME LATE THIS AFTN TO THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATE TNGT. WITH A WSW TO ENE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE FA SIMILAR TO THE LAST COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
LATE LAST WEEK...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ACROSS BROAD VLY AREAS ARND
SUNSET AND LIGHTEN TO A GENTLE BREEZE OVR HIER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN...
THIS WILL RESULT IN SIG VLY TO HILL TOP OVRNGT LOW TEMP RANGES
ACROSS THE REGION...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND W. BASED ON PROJECTED
LATE NGT 925MB TEMPS OF ARND -20 DEG C AND A CONSERVATIVE SFC BASE
INVSN STRENGTH OF 10 TO 15 DEG C...COLDEST VLY LCTNS OVR THE WRN
ST JOHN AND ALLAGASH RVR BASINS COULD DROP BLO 25 BELOW ZERO F.
ELSEWHERE...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TENS BLO
ZERO AND ARND ZERO ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECOVER FRI MORN UNDER MSLY SUNNY
SKIES TO REACH FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TEENS N TO LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST. WITH STEEPENING SFC-500M LAPSE RATES BY AFTN...WIND
SPEEDS ALF OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS
ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA WITH 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE S. CLDNSS
BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE DAY
FRI OVR THE FAR NW HOLDING OFF TIL LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE SE AS
LOW AND MID LVL RETURN FLOW WARM ADVCN/OVRRNG COMMENCES. CANNOT
RULE SCT SN SHWRS REACHING FAR NW ME PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT...WITH
ANY SN ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ATTM.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD THRU FRI NGT...WITH MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH SN SHWRS POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRI NGT AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA AND SCA/FZGSPY ADV FOR LATER TNGT
INTO FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SCA
WITH FZGSPY BECOMING LIGHT FRI AFTN. WINDS SHOULD CONT TO
DIMINISH FRI EVE...THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT VERY LATE FRI NGT. WV
HTS WERE SIG ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE WV HTS...SO WE BEGAN THE NEAR
TERM WITH BUOY OBSVD WV HTS...THEN GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD WW3
WV GUIDANCE BY FRI AFTN.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



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