Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 290853
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
453 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today. High pressure
returns tonight into Tuesday. Another frontal system will affect
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains to the east of New England while low
pressure passes to the north of the state. A cold front will move
across the region today behind the low pressure center. This will
continue to produce showers and a few thunderstorms this morning
then a gradual clearing trend is expected for later today as high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will continue to
build in from the west tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another shot of rain heading our way Tuesday night into Wednesday
and then cooling air for late week.

Weak high pres will break down as it slides e on Tuesday with
clouds increasing in the afternoon. Some showers are forecast to
develop across the northern areas in advance of the preceding warm
front during the afternoon and continue into Tuesday night.
Activity appears to weaken overnight as the region gets in a
pseudo-warm sector as blyr winds go sw. Atmosphere looks like it
will destabilize on Wednesday w/showers breaking out ahead of the
apchg cold front. CAPE values go to 700-1000 joules w/lis dropping
down to -3. 0-6KM shear is progged to be at least 30 kts. This
would be enough to allow for any convection to become organized.
the NAM is much more robust w/the instability than the GFS.
Decided to stay w/the daycrew`s assessment of have tstms for
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The best potential appears
to be across eastern Aroostook County down into central Washington
County back through Penobscot County. Attm, it does not look like
severe weather but some storms could contain gusty winds if they
can get going.

Daytime temps both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 70s
north and west w/upper 70s to around 80 for central and downeast
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather for Thursday into early Friday and then
improvement for the weekend.

Showers and tstms will be ending Wednesday evening as the front
moves off the coast. A vigorous upper trof is forecast to swing
across the region Thursday into Friday w/more showers and cooler
temps. As a matter of fact, temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal by Friday. Daytime readings are forecast to be in the mid
to upper 60s across the north and west on Thursday w/mid 70s for
central and downeast. Cooler for Friday w/mid 60s north and west
and around 70 central and downeast.

Upper trof is progged to move east on Saturday w/high pres moving
in from the west. A slight improvement on temps Saturday by about
5 degrees and then back to near normal readings by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions this morning then VFR
conditions this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR into Tuesday night and then a round of MVFR for
the northern terminals north of KHUL on Wednesday w/some tstms
possible. Tstms are possible for KBGR as well on Wednesday.
Potential is there Wednesday night for MVFR/IFR for KBHB ahead of
the apchg cold front. MVFR and perhaps a period of IFR, mainly for
CIGS for Thursday as the upper trof moves into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Sustained winds have been initialized with the NAM12
then have reduced model winds by 10 percent to account for
expected high bias: For waves: Current observations showing long
period swell dominating. Two long period wave systems are observed
in spectral from 44027, one system at 15 seconds and another at
9-10 seconds. Both of these wave groups contain wave height`s of
approximately 1 foot and appear to be coming from Hurricane
Gaston. Based on spectral forecasts from the Wave Watch III expect
both wave system will exceed 2 feet in height over the next 24
hours to to the long distance to the generation area
(approximately 1200 NM). There is also a third local wind wave
group which appears to represent a high bias in boundary
conditions from the Wave Watch III. So will initialize wave
heights with the Near Shore Wave Model then reduce heights by 2
feet to mitigate the high bias in boundary conditions.

SHORT TERM: No headlines expected this term. Wave heights will
build Tuesday night right into Thursday. The tropical systems out
in the Atlc are expected to bring a sse swell into the Gulf of
Maine. Waves will build to a range of 4-5 ft w/periods anticipated
at 8-10 seconds. Winds will be around 10 kts right through the
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt
Marine...Mignone/Hewitt



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