Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 141422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
922 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 9:15 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE. WILL REMOVE SOME WIND CHILL WARNINGS
AND ADVIORIES BASED ON LATEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALL DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW ZERO IN A LARGE PART OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO
AN ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES. THE
EXISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F RANGE. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NIGHT...BUT WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO BECOME CALM AND ALLOW FULL
DECOUPLING. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINUS 10
TO MINUS 15F READINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ALLAGASH WILL SEE
READINGS CLOSER TO MINUS 20 AND THE COAST WILL BE IN THE ZERO TO
MINUS 5 RANGE. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WL BE BACKING FM
THE WEST TO THE SOUTH DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR WRMR
TEMPS TO BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGH WL APRCH THE L/M TEENS
ACRS THE NORTH TO M20S ALONG THE COAST FOR AFTN MAXES. H5 RIDGE WL
BE KEEPING WX AT BAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM IS COMING
ONSHORE IN WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS TIME.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 285K LYR PER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DOES NOT
REALLY GET GOING ACRS SRN AND WRN SXNS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE. ALL MED
RANGE GUIDANCE IS HOLDING OFF ON QPF UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z TUE AND
WITH OVERRUNNING SETUP WL ALLOW FOR CHC POPS JUST BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON CWA BY 00Z.

WAA ADVECTION WL KICK IN MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE NIGHT.
MINS FOR TUE MRNG WL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 00Z BFR H9 WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO BTWN 25 AND 30KTS. AFT 06Z TUE EXPECT WIDESPREAD QPF
TO BE ONGOING OVR CWA AS LLJ KICKS IN. SIGNIFICANT AMNTS OF WARM AIR
BEING DRAWN IN FM THE ATLANTIC WL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSITION FM
LIQUID TO FROZEN PCPN THRU THE DAY.

LATEST 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM, TRACKS
SFC LOW TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY WITH ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST.
MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW TRENDING WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW. EXPECT ALL ZONES TO START OFF AS SNOW BY 06Z WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO MIX IN ALONG THE COAST BFR 12Z. BRIEF PD OF -FZRA ACRS
CNTRL SXNS ARND 12Z THEN PROGRESSING NORTH FM THERE BFR BCMG ALL
RAIN AFT 18Z. THIS SOLN IS A COMPROMISE BTWN 00Z GFS, WHICH TRACKS
THE LOW TO OUR WEST, AND 00Z NAM, WHICH BISECTS CWA.

EXPECT THAT IF NAM ALSO TRACKS WEST THAT THE TRANSITION WL BE MUCH
QUICKER WITH VRY LITTLE SNOWFALL AT THE START. AS IT STANDS NOW JUST
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS ALONG THE COAST WITH ARND 4-6 INCHES ACRS NRN
ZONES OVR A 24-HR PD.

MAXES ON TUE WL TOP OUT ARND 40F IN THE NORTH TO ARND 50F ALONG THE
COAST. THIS LOOKS AS THO IT WL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT OF A
RECORD FOR TUE.

PCPN WINDS DOWN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z WED AS LOW RAPIDLY PULLS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE EVENT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN WRAP-
AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF WL SKIRT THRU BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHC
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. H5
RIDGE WL BRING QUIET WX TO THE CWA STARTING FRI MRNG BFR NEXT
STORM WINDS UP BACK TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. EVENT FOR
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
MIXED PCPN DRG THE DAY THEN SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW OVRNGT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BY 03Z TUE AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
IN SNOW AND MIXED PCPN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN BHB AND BGR AND ALL
SN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. BY 15Z TUE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALL RAIN WITH NORTHERN TERMINALS TRANSITIONING OVER TO
MIXED PCPN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
MORNING BFR BECOMING MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MAY HAVE TO END THE GALE LATER IN THE MORNING AS WINDS
ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...WILL
WANT TO SEE THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT WITH AN END TIME AT 10AM.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON EVNG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
     005.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE


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