Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221704
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1204 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the region today and crest over
Maine late tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the
area Friday night. High pressure will move back into the area
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 12:00 PM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point based
on latest observations. No other changes.

Strong high pressure across the northern Great lakes and southern
Quebec will build east.  The center of the high will be right over
northern Maine late tonight.  A weak wave of low pressure will form
along the cold front that pushed off the Downeast coast yesterday
evening.  Precipitation will remain to our south, but some high and
mid level clouds are likely across the Downeast region this
afternoon into this evening before the sky clears.  Across the far
north, nothing more than a bit of cirrus expected this afternoon.
Temperatures today will be seasonably cold ranging from the low to
mid 20s in far northern Maine to the low to mid 30s toward the
coast. A great set-up tonight for radiational cooling as the
high center moves directly overnight. The combination of a
clear sky, light/calm wind will allow lows to drop below zero in
the northern valleys, and from 5 to 15 degrees Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure slides east of the forecast area Friday.
After a sunny and cold start to the day, warm advection clouds
will begin to increase by afternoon. Light snow associated with
an advancing short wave and weak overunning will begin to spread
in from the west by later Friday afternoon. Light snow is
expected across much of the area Friday evening, however, there
may be enough low level warming for snow to actually end as a
bit of light rain or drizzle across down east areas. Snow
accumulations with this system will be light, generally 1 to 3
inches, with the lesser amounts across the down east. Saturday
is expected to be a mainly cloudy day across the north with a
slight chance of a stray snow shower, with partly to mostly
sunny skies expected central and down east. High temperatures
both Friday and Saturday will be above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds to our north Saturday night with mainly
clear skies and light winds expected. This may allow for some
radiational cooling, especially across the far north nearer the
center of the high. Sunday morning will feature sunshine
followed by increasing clouds in advance of an approaching
frontal system from the west. Snow associated with this system
will begin to overspread the region during Sunday afternoon and
continue into Sunday evening. Across down east areas,
precipitation may even change over to all rain before
precipitation diminishes after after midnight Sunday. At this
time, this system appears to be a progressive system with only
light snow amounts. Looking ahead to the early to middle part of
next week, no significant systems are slated to affect the
region with temperatures expected to be above normal or this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours with the wind diminishing
today as high pressure builds toward the region.

SHORT TERM: High pressure will slide east of the region on
Friday with light overrunning snow developing from west to east
Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday evening. High
pressure builds back in Saturday through early Sunday. Another
system will approach from the west Sunday afternoon and then
move east Sunday night. High pressure builds back in on Monday.

.Outlook Friday through Monday...
Fri...VFR to start then IFR in developing light snow.
Sat...VFR.
Sun...VFR early then IFR afternoon in developing snow north and
rain/snow down east.
Mon...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind will diminish today and will become light tonight
as high pressure builds over the waters.  The wind remains a bit
gusty through early this morning so a small craft advisory will
remain in effect for wind gusts to 25 knots until 12z/7am EST.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could approach SCA levels Friday night
and then persist into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high yesterday at Caribou, Maine of 51F was a record for
2/21. It broke the previous record of 50F, set in 1994. It tied
with January 12th as the warmest temperature so far this
meteorological winter.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone



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