Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT





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