Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 131152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
POLAR VORTEX OVR S QUEBEC WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NE BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC AIR MASS POURING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WCHILLS ALREADY 10-15 BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS AT
11Z AND EXPECT THOSE READINGS TO FALL THRU MID AM...AS TEMPS FALL
AND WINDS PICK UP. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SC
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER...00Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL A BIT SHORT OF 40KTS IN MOST SPOTS.

TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE LAST WINTER. GEFS MEAN 8H
TEMPS BTWN -22F AND -25F SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND
ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE SE.

RADAR AT 11Z SHOWING SCT SHSN ACCOMPANYING ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVR NORTHERN PA BY ARND 12Z...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
WARREN/MCKEAN COS BASED ON LATEST MDL OUTPUT. BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS FLOWING OVR THE LAKES WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF LK
HURON PLUME AND LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS INDICATED ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
LATEST SPC SSEO INDICATES ALMOST NO CHC OF 3 INCH AMTS ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AND NCAR MEAN SNOWFALL TODAY ONLY AN INCH OR LESS.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LK HURON CONNECTION
TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. CONSALL QPF
AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVR THE
LAURELS TODAY OF ARND AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FALLING INVERSION HGTS UPON APPROACH OF SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE TO FLURRIES OVR THE W MTNS TONIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AN ACTIVE NW
BREEZE AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY
SLOWLY FALLING TONIGHT. SUPERBLEND AND 00Z ECME MOS INDICATE MIN
TEMPS FROM 5-10F BLW OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

DANGEROUS WCHILLS WILL FINALLY RELENT BY SUNDAY AFTN...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVR THE STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY MSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. STILL A VERY COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.

BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT
SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND
ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD
CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL
UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS
EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS
HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR MASS POURING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15G25KTS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FURTHER DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
40-45KTS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

RADAR AT 11Z SHOWING SCT SHSN ACCOMPANYING ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS. ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS
SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER WARREN COUNTY /WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF EXCURSIONS TOWARD KBFD/ WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS/BANDS ASSOC WITH LK HURON CONNECTION TO LAST THRU THE DAY
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/. RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKING IN FOR
CENTRAL MTNS AND SE...VFR WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE - WITH JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SNOW BANDS TO CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN AND/OR
SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE. LLWS POSS SE.

WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037-
041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017-
018-024-033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR


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