Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN


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