Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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669
FXUS61 KCTP 040547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC
LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND
NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING
THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS
AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST
NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE
FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



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