Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 030937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. AT 09Z...ONLY KBFD IS EXPERIENCING SIG /IFR/ REDUCTIONS.
HOWEVER...DWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS STILL
REMAINS LIKELY AT KIPT AND POSSIBLE AT KUNV/KAOO/KLNS BTWN 10Z-13Z.
ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD


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