Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KCYS 150937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...BASICALLY FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE OUT TO RAWLINS AND
THEN NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
FRONT WE ARE SEEING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
ALLIANCE TO AROUND KIMBALL. CEILINGS ARE DROPPING AT BOTH ALLIANCE
AND SIDNEY THIS MORNING AND COULD STAY IN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE.
REST OF THE CWFA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S.

KEPT FOG AND STRATUS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE IN
THIS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT CHEYENNE WITH LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. GOING TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

COULD SEE A REPEAT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS AREA. SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING OVER SIDNEY ON THE SOUNDINGS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THAT WAY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND +10 TO +12C. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
GFS ADVERTISES +14C OVER CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE SEEING LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURS AND FRI. THE
MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
OFF THE WEST COAST ON THURS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY GOING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON FRI.
WHILE THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...MIDLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPS WILL THEN TURN COOLER ON
SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ON THE WEEKEND AND FEATURES A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR/SREF/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BFF AND CYS AND
IFR AT SNY. SNY MAY MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 20Z...WITH
CYS...BFF AND AIA IMPROVING TO VFR FROM 16Z TO 18Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT LAR AND RWL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. WITH FUELS REPORTED AS
GREEN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.