Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131954
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Short range models indicate the large scale closed off upper level
low dropping further southeast into the Great Lakes Region tonight
while upper level ridging remains locked in across the Intermountain
West. A near stationary frontal boundary in the Texas panhandle will
serve focus for thunderstorm development this evening as an H5 vort
maxima moves southeast off the Colorado Rockies into the South
Plains. With plenty of moisture in place, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out along the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas
tonight. A more significant H5 vort lobe is projected to cycle
around the closed low in the Great Lakes Monday, moving southeast
across the Upper Midwest. An attendant frontal boundary will push
southward across western Kansas by Monday afternoon providing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions of
central and western Kansas. As the H5 vort max swings southeast
across the Upper Midwest, an associated +80kt jet will shift
southward into northern and central Kansas increasing dynamic
support aloft. Combined with developing steep low/mid level
lapse rates and CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/Kg, thunderstorms
will be possible late Monday morning through the afternoon time
period. However, severe weather is not expected with less than
favorable shear profiles expected according to NAM/GFS model
soundings.

Near normal temperatures are likely tonight with little change
expected to the air mass across the Western High Plains. Look for
lows well down into the 60s(F) across west central and much of
southwest Kansas with the lower 70s(F) still a possibility in
south central Kansas. Again, with little change to the resident
air mass in place, high temperatures are expected well up into
the 80s(F) Monday afternoon with a few 90s(F) possible in the
south before an approaching cold front begins to push through
mid to late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

On Tuesday, another shot of cold air will plunge south through the
plains in form of a second cold front.  A short wave aloft will be
rippling southeast through the northwest flow aloft.  The upper low
over the Great Lakes will dive southward Tuesday, as the Nevada upper
high pressure area relaxes and migrates back to the southwest. This
will allow numerous short waves to travel over the high pressure
ridge and southeast through the plains.  This will give southwest
Kansas fairly good chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Pops on Tuesday will start in the 30 to 40 percent chance range in
our southwest zones near Elkhart, and then progressive move
northeast in the day as more upper level support moves in.  There
will be 40 percent chances southwest of a Ness City to Coldwater
line, with 30 percent chances northeast of that line Tuesday.  That
cold front could push northward Tuesday night, but stall as a
stationary front across our CWA.  A rather significant upper level
wave will move through western Kansas Tuesday night.  For these
reasons, likely 60 to 70 percent chances seem appropriate.  This
precipitation will be more showery than convective, so a lot of
rainfall is not forecast.

That upper short wave trough will continue to move eastward, but 50
to 60 percent PoPs are justified for Wednesday.  Wednesday looks to
be the coldest day, with highs from 65F degrees in the Scott City
area, ranging to 75F degrees in the Medicine Lodge area.  Some
record low maximums could be reached somewhere, but at first glance,
DDC`s record low max for July 16th is 68F and I am forecasting 69F;
GCK`s record low max is 58F with a forecast high of 68F; and Medicine
Lodge has a current low max record of 69F with a forecast of 71F.
Either way, Wednesday will feel cool to a lot of people, especially
with the rain considered.

Thursday will still see some 20 to 30 percent chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms, as upslope low level flow will be
feeding in the the vorticity still moving southeast over head.  The
chances will go down by Thursday afternoon, and will be gone by
Thursday night.  Thursday should still be relatively cool, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.  Skies will start clearing out
Thursday night, and surface winds will return to southerly.  Max
temps Friday will climb into the mid 80s in most locations.
Saturday will be a warm blast, and Saturday afternoon temperatures
will soar into the lower 90s.  Yet another upper short wave will
enter from the northwest, and a surface lee side trough will advance
from Colorado into Kansas from Saturday into Sunday.  Lower 20
percent chance Pops will be across our west on Friday night, then
increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night as an upper wave
passes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Winds will remain light and variable through early Monday
morning as well as surface high pressure moves southeast off the high
plains of eastern Colorado into western Kansas during the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  88  58  76 /  20  30  30  50
GCK  67  87  58  75 /  20  30  30  50
EHA  67  87  60  75 /  30  30  50  50
LBL  67  88  61  76 /  30  30  50  50
HYS  67  86  59  75 /  10  30  20  50
P28  70  91  60  78 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...JJohnson





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