Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

2-4 SM VIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
VIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z AS FOG ERODES. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
REST OF TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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