Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A northwest flow pattern aloft prevailed across the Central CONUS.
Embedded within this larger scale pattern was a nebulous shortwave
trough, leading to a continuation of northwest surface winds and not
much else. Some faint radar echoes were evident on radar mosaic
ahead of this feature in southern Nebraska, but this was essentially
virga and will continue to push southeast, well away from our
southwest KS region. For tonight, we will be looking for
temperatures to drop off quite a bit after sunset, as is usually the
case in this very dry atmosphere, light winds, and clear sky. Lows
are expected to be in the mid to upper teens across far west central
KS, to the lower 20s across south central KS. On Wednesday, large
scale ridging will spread out across the Rockies into the western
Great Plains, leading to lee trough development. Our surface winds
will shift around to the southwest as a result and increase to
around 20 mph by afternoon. Warming lower tropospheric temperatures
are expected as a result of the approaching ridge, with 850mb
temperatures reaching +5 to +8C. This will allow surface
temperatures to warm up to upper 50s to around 60, especially in the
Red Hills and far southwest KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The early part of this forecast period will be characterized by
fairly warm temperatures, especially Thursday ahead of the next
trough. This trough will be zonal in nature, with a lot of westerly
momentum coming across the Rockies. Thursday temperatures will warm
well into the 60s, perhaps near 70 along the Oklahoma border. Winds
were ramped up in the grids over the lower SuperBlend guidance,
given the anticipated depth of the leeside low pressure and
resultant pressure gradient. Official wind forecast in the afternoon
will be 25 to 30 mph with higher gusts. A cold front will push
across southwest KS Friday afternoon, but the airmass behind it will
not be that cold given the degree of downslope momentum.
Temperatures will cool off some over the weekend, however still
above the seasonal norm. Upper level heights will rise again out
across the western CONUS late weekend into early next week, leading
to continued above normal temperatures. The exception would be
across central KS, potentially, as there are some hints of a
backdoor cold front pushing into the Central Plains late Sunday
Night into Monday.

Looking way out into the 8-10 day time frame (30 Jan to 1 Feb),
there is quite good agreement among the global spectral models of a
substantial, deep trough affecting the western/central CONUS, with a
probabilistic shift toward cooler/wetter weather across the central
CONUS -- which may include the southwest KS region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Northwest winds at less than 10 knots will back to the west
between 03z and 06z Wednesday as an area of high pressure at the
surface crosses Kansas and Oklahoma. These light westerly winds
will become southwest early Wednesday morning and then increase
into the 15 to 20 knot range during the afternoon as a trough of
low pressure at the surface deepens along the lee of the Rockies.
Model soundings indicating VFR conditions for all of western
Kansas over the next 24 hours.


Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast Wednesday
afternoon, especially along the Oklahoma border as winds increase to
15 to 20 mph and relative humidity falls to between 15 to 20 percent
for a couple hours in the afternoon. This will need to be watched
for potential Red Flag conditions, but no fire headlines are in
effect for Wednesday.

On Thursday though, there is much greater confidence in Red Flag
(Critical) fire weather conditions to develop. The southwest
momentum will be stronger on Thursday, allowing single-digit surface
dewpoints to spread northeast into far southwest Kansas as
temperatures warm into the mid to upper 60s. The result will most
likely be relative humidity falling to between 10 and 15 percent for
a few hours in the mid to late afternoon. Winds will also be
stronger on Thursday as the lee trough deepens across eastern
Colorado. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued, which was coordinated
with WFO AMA and OUN who will also have the same headline going for
adjacent areas to our south.


DDC  21  58  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  17  56  23  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  22  59  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  19  59  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  18  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
P28  22  57  30  65 /   0   0   0   0


Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ061>064-074>078-080-



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.