Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 020441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MAY CLIP MCW/FOD B/T 07-09Z. HIGH CLOUDS FROM MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD
HINDER THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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